Let's suppose that SUSA poll is right

[Crumpets]

and Trump beats Clinton by 5, or Sanders by 4 or Biden by 2. What would those maps look like?

[Skye]

Trump: 348
Clinton: 190

[HillOfANight]

[/]

This

[JonathanSwift]

Something like this.

Trump vs. Clinton

Trump: 52%; 347 Electoral Votes
Clinton: 47%; 191 Electoral Votes

Trump vs. Sanders

Trump: 51%; 321 Electoral Votes
Sanders: 47%; 217 Electoral Votes

Trump vs. Biden

Trump: 50%; 301 Electoral Votes
Biden: 48%; 237 Electoral Votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems like Kerry & Gore typically poll behind R's until the time is right when public start paying attention to the election.

The Dems have 242 electors; R's with 206; and Dems need only 28 electors to win. And state by state polling shows a very close race.

[Donerail]

Something like this, going just off the SUSA poll (which showed Clinton performing a little better among whites than 2012, with Trump's margin largely made by him pulling around a quarter of black voters and a third of Hispanic ones).

[Adam Griffin]

The only realistic way Trump beats Clinton by 5 points without the presence of an actual legal scandal is by largely driving up the margins in states any Republican would be likely to win anyway. Such a feat would create a very odd-looking Atlas map in terms of shading, but more importantly, would demonstrate just how ridiculous the Electoral College is (from a perspective of Democratic advantage):

Trump: 295 (51.7%)
Clinton: 243 (46.7%)



If you want to entertain the concept of him beating Clinton by 5 and the swing being fairly universal, then this posted map is the correct one.

[muon2]

The most likely 5% win by Trump over Hillary would be due to core Dem voters staying home (minority, youth) and some crossover white blue collar voters that normally lean Dem voting Pub. A 5% win should correspond to PVI D+2 going Pub, and PVI D+3 going Dem. Shifting PVI's accordingly, this would be the result: Trump 332, Clinton 206.

edit: It's nice to see a map in my 10,000th post

[Kingpoleon]

Donald Trump/Jesse Ventura - 48%
Joseph Biden/Evan Bayh - 46%

Other: 6%
Mitch Daniels(L-IN)/Ken Cucinelli(L-VA): 2.0%
Dennis Kucinich(G-OH)/Jill Stein(G-MA): 1.3%
Tom Tancredo(C-CO)/Robert Smith(C-NH): 0.7%
Other: 1.0%

[henster]

If Trump is the nominee I don't see him even breaking 50%, the libertarian candidate would likely get 5-7% of the vote in a Trump-Clinton race where she is under indictment or legal trouble. I would say something like 45-41 and 12% to third parties.