1980 vs other landslides
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:32:01 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  1980 vs other landslides
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 1980 vs other landslides  (Read 2203 times)
ak482
Newbie
*
Posts: 11
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 06, 2015, 08:08:17 AM »

What exactly about 1980 caused the dramatic coattail effect to flip the Senate to the GOP?  How come these coat tails weren't in effect for 1972 (I believe the GOP lost in the house) and 1984 (no real change) which were bigger presidential landslides?  Was it the money from the conservative interest groups or the candidates on the senate ticket?
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,968


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2015, 04:51:00 PM »

The Moral Majority and NCPAC were major factors in 1980 Senate races.  There was a bumper crop of liberals (George McGovern, Frank Church, Birch Bayh, Gaylord Nelson, and John Culver) who were heavily targeted in states that Reagan won easily.  I think that all of the above candidates ran ahead of the national ticket--Carter ran so poorly in those states.

Meanwhile, in the South, the victories that Reagan won narrowly (except for Florida) carried downticket to pick up Senate seats as well (Denton in Alabama, East in North Carolina, Hawkins in Florida).  Add a surprise in Georgia (Mattingly defeated Talmadge) and you had perhaps a bigger upset on Election Day 1980 than Reagan's landslide win. 

The Republicans winning the Senate that year has to be one of the most unexpected events in recent national elections.  I remember that night--and the first time I was alerted to a potential Republican Senate takeover was when Ronald Reagan talked about it in his victory speech.
Logged
ak482
Newbie
*
Posts: 11
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2015, 05:26:14 PM »

The Moral Majority and NCPAC were major factors in 1980 Senate races.  There was a bumper crop of liberals (George McGovern, Frank Church, Birch Bayh, Gaylord Nelson, and John Culver) who were heavily targeted in states that Reagan won easily.  I think that all of the above candidates ran ahead of the national ticket--Carter ran so poorly in those states.

Meanwhile, in the South, the victories that Reagan won narrowly (except for Florida) carried downticket to pick up Senate seats as well (Denton in Alabama, East in North Carolina, Hawkins in Florida).  Add a surprise in Georgia (Mattingly defeated Talmadge) and you had perhaps a bigger upset on Election Day 1980 than Reagan's landslide win. 

The Republicans winning the Senate that year has to be one of the most unexpected events in recent national elections.  I remember that night--and the first time I was alerted to a potential Republican Senate takeover was when Ronald Reagan talked about it in his victory speech.

The irony there is that this was the Senate class whose last election was the Watergate Babies of 1974.  Yet the big losers were long time establishment Democrats.  It was the 4th and last time according to my calculations that the Senate changed hands in a presidential year in the 20th century (1912, 1932, 1952, 1980).
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2015, 05:33:43 PM »

What exactly about 1980 caused the dramatic coattail effect to flip the Senate to the GOP?  How come these coat tails weren't in effect for 1972 (I believe the GOP lost in the house) and 1984 (no real change) which were bigger presidential landslides?  Was it the money from the conservative interest groups or the candidates on the senate ticket?

Because 1980 had an very unpopular president running for reelection which the Republican used against all there Democratic opponents. 1972 and 1984 was just McGovern being to radical and Reagan being very popular while there parties werent as unpopular as McGovern was or as Popular as Reagan. 1994 was the true ideological revolution though because it is called the Republican Revolution while 1980 was just called the Reagan Revolution
Logged
bobloblaw
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,018
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2015, 07:10:12 PM »

What exactly about 1980 caused the dramatic coattail effect to flip the Senate to the GOP?  How come these coat tails weren't in effect for 1972 (I believe the GOP lost in the house) and 1984 (no real change) which were bigger presidential landslides?  Was it the money from the conservative interest groups or the candidates on the senate ticket?


1980 was 6 years after 1974, a big Dem year. So a lot of weak Dems won in 1974, vulnerable in 1980
Logged
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,053
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2015, 07:35:32 PM »


Within the GOP, perhaps, but I wouldn't say the nation as a whole.
Logged
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2015, 09:51:46 PM »


The irony there is that this was the Senate class whose last election was the Watergate Babies of 1974.  Yet the big losers were long time establishment Democrats.  It was the 4th and last time according to my calculations that the Senate changed hands in a presidential year in the 20th century (1912, 1932, 1952, 1980).

Add 1948.

Majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives also became a Democratic pickup with the re-election of incumbent Democratic Party president Harry Truman. (Those other election years were party-pickup years for the presidency. It may be why you forgot about 1948.)
Logged
sg0508
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,053
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2015, 11:52:37 AM »

It was the first time that the GOP (outside of '64) had a clear establishment with the conservative wing.  Add do that, a changing Democratic Party that was really "nowhere", and it set the stage for the landslide from the Presidential race down to Congress too.

Carter had little place to grow from '76, and the Democrats weren't strong enough yet in the northeast. Thus, the Democratic Party was somewhat "nomadic" at that time and remained that way until the late 80s/early 90s.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2015, 01:34:50 PM »

Because 1980 was more of an ideological revolution, while the other two were feel-good, national unity runs.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2015, 01:35:44 PM »

What exactly about 1980 caused the dramatic coattail effect to flip the Senate to the GOP?  How come these coat tails weren't in effect for 1972 (I believe the GOP lost in the house) and 1984 (no real change) which were bigger presidential landslides?  Was it the money from the conservative interest groups or the candidates on the senate ticket?


1980 was 6 years after 1974, a big Dem year. So a lot of weak Dems won in 1974, vulnerable in 1980

Also true. Same seems to have applied for 2014 and will apply for 2018.
Logged
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2015, 09:19:04 AM »

Because 1980 was more of an ideological revolution, while the other two were feel-good, national unity runs.

This plus, as others have stated, the Republicans were more exposed in '72 and '84 while the Democrats were more exposed in '80. That's also one reason Republicans picked up Senate seats in '04 even though Bush's reelection was much narrower than Nixon or Reagan's (that and people were less likely to split their ticket then...white southerners weren't voting Democratic for Congress anymore).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 13 queries.