Will Hillary win the general election?

[Talleyrand]

Almost certainly not. If she does, it'll be by a nail-biter.

(And no, I don't think Sanders would do better. Just curious what this forum thinks about Hillary's chances)

[5280]

I'm going to say it will be like the 2000 election all over again, with either Ohio or Florida being too close to call.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No idea. It will be close though. Hillary and the Republican will be separated by no more than 1% in the popular vote. There will probably be some states that need recounts. Hopefully they won't be a repeat of 2000 though. We probably won't know the winner on election night.

[CapoteMonster]

Given how much the leading Republican candidates suck I'd have to still give Clinton a slight advantage.

[ElectionsGuy]

Her ability to win on paper is and will be terrible, but it will almost certainly be enhanced by Republican stupidity.

[windjammer]

She will win by 4 points.

[Angel of Death]

The probability is probably below 50% right now, but she's obviously still the single most likely winner by far.

[Nyvin]

Pretty comfortably, yes.   

She's very popular with both minorities and women.    I don't see how the GOP can be competitive in Virginia or Florida either.

[DrScholl]

Yes and it will be a clear win.

[Maxwell]

Probably a bit closer than both of Obama's wins, but yes, I think she will win the general election.

[/]

Of course.

[henster]

No candidate has ever won with as high unfavorables as her Obama, Bush, Clinton and so on all had net positive favorability rating on election day.

[DemPGH]

Yes, I do. Once the campaigns really kick in over the winter, I think you'll see her rebound. Now of course more scandals and brouhahas could certainly do her in, but against Trump or Jeb or one of the lesser known far righties, I like her chances.

[tmthforu94]

No - any viable Republican except Trump could beat her. I am starting to legitimately think Sanders would be a stronger candidate in the general election. Who would have thought that six months ago?

[xavier110]

no - she is irreparably damaged. As others have said, those unfavorable numbers (which will not change drastically over the next 12 months) = doom for a candidate, and unlike with some of the other candidates, this is all her doing. She is a terrible candidate, and any sane person should see that.

[/]

No - any viable Republican except Trump could beat her. I am starting to legitimately think Sanders would be a stronger candidate in the general election. Who would have thought that six months ago?

Me

[Lief 🗽]

The election is 14 months away. Jesus christ you people need to stop over-reacting.

[The Other Castro]

Probably.

[Figueira]

The probability is probably below 50% right now, but she's obviously still the single most likely winner by far.

The question is "Will Hillary win?" not "Is Hillary the most likely candidate to win?" You should only answer "Yes" if you think she has a higher than 50% chance.

Anyway, yes, I think she's still favored. Most of that is because of how terrible the Republicans are right now.

Also, as Lief said, the election is 14 months away. Predicting things like whether we will know the result on election night and whether Ohio will be too close to call is pretty ridiculous at this point.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Of course. The vast majority of the GOP candidates have proven pretty objectively that they're gigantic dopes. If Kasich is the nominee I think he'll find a way to win a close race. Trump is also a serious wild card. Any of the others and it's a decently comfortable Clinton win.

[Mr. Smith]

If Richard Nixon could 1968 despite all the actual scandals he already had under belt, then so can Hillary.

If he almost won 1960 even.

[Simfan34]

Yes, and it won't be close. The numbers simply don't add up for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3rd terms usually go to opposite party; bellwethers will be Iowa & Colorado, it will be a very close election; whether it is Trump or Jeb, now.

[Free Bird]

Are you voting based on what you WANT to happen or what you THINK will happen?

[Penelope]

Her ability to win on paper is and will be terrible, but it will almost certainly be enhanced by Republican stupidity.

Yeah, this. If the GOP continues down their current trajectory, and nominates a complete fool like Donald Trump, or a rabid radical like Ted Cruz, she will win by one of the largest margins in modern electoral history. Her own unpopularity would limit the chances of a landslide, but it would probably end up in the ballpark of an 6 - 12% margin of victory in the popular vote.

Are you voting based on what you WANT to happen or what you THINK will happen?

What I think will happen. Hillary may be unpopular, but any (likely) Republican nominee at this stage will embarrass themselves in the debates and come across like a reactionary during the campaign season.