Scenario: GOP Improves Slightly With All Demographic Groups in 2016

[Ljube]

The danger with Trump is that he falls below Romney #'s with Hispanic and Asian voters.  This is what happens with black and white turnout at 65%, Hispanic and Asian turnout at 50% and the Republican getting 63% of the white vote, 10% of the black vote, and 20% of the Hispanic and Asian vote:

The only R pick-up over 2012 is Ohio.

That tool doesn’t work well, hence the weird WI/IA split.

Trump is a white turnout booster, so it won't be surprising if he managed to get more than 67% of white turnout. His share of whites will also be greater than normal for a Republican. I think he can't go below 61% and 63-65% of whites is possible.

I don't think that the Republican share of the Hispanic vote could ever be lower than that what Romney got. They simply hated the guy. In fact, I think there will be a very small rebound, even with Trump as candidate. My estimate is around 30% of the Hispanic vote goes Republican, more if Bush is the nominee.

Asian vote should return to norm for Republicans, which is 40-50%.

[Torie]

Yes, I think the black turnout rate falling back to 57% is unrealistic as well. It may drop some, but I would be amazed if it fell below 60%, unless turnout is down for all groups, because of a general alienation from politics. A more interesting question to me, is whether white working class turnout will go up. It's been down quite a bit is my impression. I noted elsewhere just how amazed I was at how low the white turnout was in the mountains of VA in 2008 (VA-09 in particular) - far below the black turnout in the state, even the rural black turnout. I doubt if it bounced back up in 2012.