Scenario: GOP Improves Slightly With All Demographic Groups in 2016

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This tool is a lot of fun:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

Demographics (3rd parties excluded):

White: 65% GOP, 69% turnout
Black: 88% DEM, 58% turnout (Obama no longer on the ballot)
Hispanic: 60% DEM, 45% turnout
Others: 60% DEM, 48% turnout

Results (with 1% subtracted from each party to account for 3rd Parties):

Rep: 352, 54.2%
Dem: 186, 43.8%
Others: 2.0%

Within 5%:
New Jersey: 0.4%
Oregon: 3.0%
Iowa: 3.2%
Illinois: 3.8%
Minnesota: 4.0%
New Hampshire: 4.2%
Washington: 4.2%
Michigan: 4.4%
Connecticut: 4.6%
New Mexico: 4.8%
California: 4.8%
Nevada: 4.8%

It seems to be that states like Iowa and Minnesota don't move as fast as ones like California and New Jersey because of the virtually entirely white populations of the former two (and it doesn't factor in that Iowa whites could get more GOP, while California whites stay the same.

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Interesting...

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting...

Not Really. More like a Republican fantasy.

[HillOfANight]

I think Trump has made Jeb unelectable in the primary (illegal immigration is an act of love), and Jeb himself is making himself unelectable (no to women's health, phase out Medicare).

He would have been good for the Hispanic vote. So unless Rubio breaks out, Democrats are probably going to crush it with Hispanics, especially with all of the Trump stuff has been saying, and pushing the whole field to take a position on birthright citizenship, legal status instead of citizenship.

[OSR stands with Israel]

GOP wont win 65% of the white vote

[JonathanSwift]

This is a useful tool. Thank you for posting it.

[Ljube]

This is a useful tool. Thank you for posting it.

I am not sure it's useful. I can't get Iowa to turn Republican unless I set some insane percentages.
I would prefer a state by state tool.

[JonathanSwift]

This is a useful tool. Thank you for posting it.

I am not sure it's useful. I can't get Iowa to turn Republican unless I set some insane percentages.
I would prefer a state by state tool.

Yeah, none of these things are perfect. It would also be better if you could take third party candidacies into account.

Still interesting, though.

[EliteLX]

Interesting...

Not Really. More like a Republican fantasy.

What the hell? lol.

He said "interesting", not "w0w the pubs are going to replicate that map in 2016!". Take a deep breath and stop busting a nut over anything that would be a good situation for somebody other than the dems.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting...

Not Really. More like a Republican fantasy.

What the hell? lol.

He said "interesting", not "w0w the pubs are going to replicate that map in 2016!". Take a deep breath and stop busting a nut over anything that would be a good situation for somebody other than the dems.

My point was I don't find extremely unrealistic scenarios to be interesting. Of course if you tweak turnout and vote shares of demographic groups enough you can get your desired result but that does not make it interesting.  I probably should have just skipped this thread like I do most of the other nonsense (Webb vs Jindal, who would win?) . I Just made a smart @ss 7 word reply, hardly busting a nut over this nonsense.

[Frodo]

An excellent tool that confirms what I thought -with Donald Trump having effectively become the face of the Republican Party (thus erasing any possibility for the GOP to make inroads among Latinos and Asians), the only realistic way for the GOP to take back the White House in 2016 is to not only win over 60% of the white vote, but to get a higher turnout from them as well.  

[Flake]

61-62% is the ceiling for Republicans winning white voters, however, thanks to Republican Nominee Donald J. Trump, Latinos and Asians will solidify as a Democratic voting bloc.

[Figueira]

OK, but they aren't just going to magically improve with those groups. There's a reason why most of those people don't vote Republican.

[ElectionsGuy]

61-62% is the ceiling for Republicans winning white voters, however, thanks to Republican Nominee Donald J. Trump, Latinos and Asians will solidify as a Democratic voting bloc.

I wouldn't be so sure. The Democrats can keep on losing working class whites with the current direction their going in, just like Republicans can keep losing immigrant communities.

[Crumpets]

And here's the map for if the Democrats improve by the same amount for each group and the turnout figures swing an opposite and equal amount.

[Simfan34]

Don't worry, the GOP base will prevent a map like that from happening

Sadly, they actually will.

[Sasquatch]

Too bad you can't add third parties to this. I want to see how the past elections would look with 2016 demographics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Seniors are the biggest constituency for GOP voters. GEN X voters wait until last minute to make up mind about voting. That's why Kerry & Gore who make it very close at end were also trailing at this stage. Dems were spoiled by the Obama landslides; but Dems should relax already.

[mvd10]

If a republican gets Bush's 2004 numbers and the turnout numbers also would go to 2004 numbers he would win the popular vote (by 1,6 percent) and lose the electoral college 276-262 (New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia and Florida would go GOP in this case, probably because more minorities voted GOP in 2004, especially hispanics, I suppose Ohio and Iowa stayed dem in that case because there are more whites in those states and whites voted less GOP in 2004 than in 2012, but I don't know that much about demographics). Differences in some swing states would be that small that third parties probably can influence the race a lot, and 3rd parties aren't included in this. Bush's 2000 numbers and turnout would produce 2012 map + Florida for the GOP. And a 52-48 loss in the popular vote. These scenario's won't happen but it still is fun to look at it.

EDIT: Meant to say if turnout numbers go to 2004 instead of if turnouts stay the same.

[Torie]

How much is the black turnout percentage dropping from 2012 at 58% turnout?  What was the black turnout percentage in 2000 and 2004?

[JonathanSwift]

How much is the black turnout percentage dropping from 2012 at 58% turnout?  What was the black turnout percentage in 2000 and 2004?

57% in 2000, 60% in 2004, 65% in 2008, 66% in 2012.

[Ljube]

So, blacks should go back to their 57% norm. And the Republican share of the black vote should dramitacally increase. I think Republicans will win at least 15% of the black vote.

[Skill and Chance]

So, blacks should go back to their 57% norm. And the Republican share of the black vote should dramitacally increase. I think Republicans will win at least 15% of the black vote.

Actually, I think that's completely unrealistic.  Once a person has voted twice, they tend to vote frequently for life.  The net impact of Obama has probably been to turn millions of black, and to a lesser extent, Hispanic unlikely voters into likely voters going forward.  Note that black turnout largely held in 2010 and 2014.  What changed was the margin, which went back to 90/10 for generic Dem from 95/5 for Obama. 

Expecting anything in 2016 other than a more diverse electorate than 2012 (72% white) is nothing but Republican wishful thinking.  However, Republicans getting 63-65% of the white vote and 10-15% of the black vote may be more than just wishful thinking based on recent polling trends.

What do we get when we keep black and white turnout equal and give the Republican 64% of the white vote, 11% of the black vote and 30% of the Hispanic vote?

We get this, which is basically reverse 2012 with a weird IA/WI split:

[Skill and Chance]

The danger with Trump is that he falls below Romney #'s with Hispanic and Asian voters.  This is what happens with black and white turnout at 65%, Hispanic and Asian turnout at 50% and the Republican getting 63% of the white vote, 10% of the black vote, and 20% of the Hispanic and Asian vote:

The only R pick-up over 2012 is Ohio.

[Minnesota Mike]

So, blacks should go back to their 57% norm. And the Republican share of the black vote should dramitacally increase. I think Republicans will win at least 15% of the black vote.

And non Hispanic white turnout was 62% in in 2000, 67% in 2000, 66% in 2008 and 64% in 2012.  IMHO it is very unrealistic to expect white turnout make a big jump while minority turnout falls dramatically.  One groups turnout % may move more than another's but they tend to move in the same direction.