This tool is a lot of fun:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.htmlDemographics (3rd parties excluded):
White: 65% GOP, 69% turnout
Black: 88% DEM, 58% turnout (Obama no longer on the ballot)
Hispanic: 60% DEM, 45% turnout
Others: 60% DEM, 48% turnout
Results (with 1% subtracted from each party to account for 3rd Parties):
Rep: 352, 54.2%
Dem: 186, 43.8%
Others: 2.0%
Within 5%:
New Jersey: 0.4%Oregon: 3.0%Iowa: 3.2%Illinois: 3.8%Minnesota: 4.0%New Hampshire: 4.2%Washington: 4.2%Michigan: 4.4%Connecticut: 4.6%New Mexico: 4.8%California: 4.8%Nevada: 4.8%It seems to be that states like Iowa and Minnesota don't move as fast as ones like California and New Jersey because of the virtually entirely white populations of the former two (and it doesn't factor in that Iowa whites could get more GOP, while California whites stay the same.
