mvd10
YaBB God
Posts: 3,709
Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61
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« on: September 07, 2015, 11:05:29 AM » |
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« edited: September 07, 2015, 11:16:11 AM by mvd10 »
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If a republican gets Bush's 2004 numbers and the turnout numbers also would go to 2004 numbers he would win the popular vote (by 1,6 percent) and lose the electoral college 276-262 (New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia and Florida would go GOP in this case, probably because more minorities voted GOP in 2004, especially hispanics, I suppose Ohio and Iowa stayed dem in that case because there are more whites in those states and whites voted less GOP in 2004 than in 2012, but I don't know that much about demographics). Differences in some swing states would be that small that third parties probably can influence the race a lot, and 3rd parties aren't included in this. Bush's 2000 numbers and turnout would produce 2012 map + Florida for the GOP. And a 52-48 loss in the popular vote. These scenario's won't happen but it still is fun to look at it.
EDIT: Meant to say if turnout numbers go to 2004 instead of if turnouts stay the same.
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