Scenario: GOP Improves Slightly With All Demographic Groups in 2016

[Torie]

How much is the black turnout percentage dropping from 2012 at 58% turnout?  What was the black turnout percentage in 2000 and 2004?

[Torie]

Yes, I think the black turnout rate falling back to 57% is unrealistic as well. It may drop some, but I would be amazed if it fell below 60%, unless turnout is down for all groups, because of a general alienation from politics. A more interesting question to me, is whether white working class turnout will go up. It's been down quite a bit is my impression. I noted elsewhere just how amazed I was at how low the white turnout was in the mountains of VA in 2008 (VA-09 in particular) - far below the black turnout in the state, even the rural black turnout. I doubt if it bounced back up in 2012.