Will Trump do to the hispanic vote what Goldwater did to the black vote?

[Thunderbird is the word]

By that I mean that it seems that from the post New Deal era to 1964 the black vote tended to lean Democratic but still somewhat up for grabs but it was Goldwater opposing civil rights that led to African-Americans voting at least 85-90% Democratic after 64. With the Hispanic vote I could almost see the same thing happening long-term if Trump continues to campaign against birthright citizenship as the GOP nominee.

[hopper]

Um no in the long run no I don't see that happening.

[Figueira]

Maybe in the short term, but it won't continue in the long term. Despite what bobloblaw would tell you, the GOP can't become the party of white racists more than they already are, and survive.

[Adam Griffin]

Anything's possible. What we do know is that among first-time voters, voting for the same party three elections in a row creates about a 90% likelihood of voting that way for life. When you consider that a good bulk of the current Latino electorate first voted in 2008 and the levels at which they've been voting since then are >65% D, then 2016 could definitely be the cycle in which permanent super-majority support status for Democrats among Latinos is permanently solidified - goodbye to the Republican Party getting anywhere near their 2004 share of the vote if that happens.

[Skill and Chance]

Anything's possible. What we do know is that among first-time voters, voting for the same party three elections in a row creates about a 90% likelihood of voting that way for life. When you consider that a good bulk of the current Latino electorate first voted in 2008 and the levels at which they've been voting since then are >65% D, then 2016 could definitely be the cycle in which permanent super-majority support status for Democrats among Latinos is permanently solidified - goodbye to the Republican Party getting anywhere near their 2004 share of the vote if that happens.

It is true that, contrary to everything you hear in mass media, people rarely if ever change their minds politically after their late 20's.  It extends beyond just Hispanic voters, though.  This would seem to be the critical cycle that determines whether the circa 1990 generation stays with the Dems for life like the circa 1920 generation did or reverts back to swing status like the Boomers.

[hopper]

]Anything's possible. What we do know is that among first-time voters, voting for the same party three elections in a row creates about a 90% likelihood of voting that way for life. When you consider that a good bulk of the current Latino electorate first voted in 2008 and the levels at which they've been voting since then are >65% D, then 2016 could definitely be the cycle in which permanent super-majority support status for Democrats among Latinos is permanently solidified - goodbye to the Republican Party getting anywhere near their 2004 share of the vote if that happens.

No, there wasn't a huge rise in Latino Vote Turnout from 2004 to 2008. Latino Turnout increased from being 9 to 10% of the Electorate from 2004 to 2008. True once somebody votes for the same party three times in a row from 18 years old and on they end up voting for the same party for the rest of their lives barring a 1990's realignment like the South had from Conservative Democrat to Conservative Republican.

[ag]

Likely. But there will always remain greater heterogeneity in the Latino vote: there are too many distinct communities involved. Still, I can easily see long-term Dem vote share among the Latinos growing to between 75 and 80%.