Italian Election Game - ROUND 3

[Senator Cris]

Italian Election Game - Introduction

The current Cabinet:

In office since: 22 February 2014
Composition: Democratic Party, Popular Area, other small centre-left parties.
Prime Minister: Matteo Renzi

> History of the Cabinet

On 13 February 2014, following tensions between Prime Minister Enrico Letta and Democratic Party Secretary Matteo Renzi, the Democratic Party leadership voted in favour of Renzi's call for a new government. The following day, Prime Minister Enrico Letta resigned.
5 days later, Renzi formally received the task of forming a new government from President Giorgio Napolitano. After several days of meetings with leaders of other parties, Renzi announced his Cabinet.
The Renzi Cabinet became the youngest cabinet of history. The parties supporting the Renzi's cabinet are the same parties that supported the Enrico Letta's cabinet.

> Labour market reforms

Renzi immediately came in conflict with trade unions and the left-wing minority of the Democratic Party because of his reforms about the labour market, the Poletti Decree and the Jobs Act.
The Jobs Act provided the abolition of Article 18 of the Workers' Statute, which protected workers from unlawful dismissal.
The Jobs Act was approved on 9 October by the Italian Senate.
On 25 October, one million people took part in a mass protest in Rome, organised by the CGIL (the largest Italian trade union). Notable members of the left-wing of the Democratic Party, such as Gianni Cuperlo, Stefano Fassina and Pippo Civati partecipated at the event. PM Matteo Renzi accused trade unions and the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party of being conservatives and defending a policy which caused unemployment.

> Constitutional reforms

The first stage of the reform proposed by Renzi was the abolition of the so-called "perfect bicameralism", which gave the same powers to the two houses of the Parliament, the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
That reform would decrease the power of the Senate: the Senate's power to call for the resignation of the government is removed and only a few types of bills, not all bills, would need to be passed by the Senate. The reform would change the composition of the Senate and replace the current members with representatives from the Regions.
Renzi was accused by various politicians and constitutionalists of being an authoritarian leader.

At the same time, Renzi proposed a new electoral law, called the Italicum system. It's a proportional representation system with a majority bonus for the party which obtains 40% of the vote.

In order to approve the Senate reform and the new electoral law, that was opposed by Five Star Movement, Left Ecology Freedom and the minority of the Democratic Party, Renzi gained the support of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and of Forza Italia, despite having been expelled from the Senate due to his sentence for tax evasion. The alliance between Renzi and Berlusconi was named the Nazareno Pact, from the name of the Rome street where the headquarters of the Democratic Party are located, in which the two leaders met for the first time to discuss the reform.

Renzi was criticised by the Democratic Party's left-wing minority for the deal with Berlusconi, as well as by the Five Star Movement. Despite concern from some within the Democratic Party, the Italicum was given a first approval by the Italian Senate on January 2015, thanks to support from Forza Italia Senators.

In the following months, the Nazareno Pact was broken and on March 2015, the Chamber of Deputies approved the reform of the Senate, but, in a break from their past support, Forza Italia strongly opposed the reform. This reform still needs the final approval of the Senate.
On May 2015, the Chamber of Deputies approved the electoral law and a faction of the Democratic Party voted against. The reforms will take effect in July 2016.
The government had staged a confidence vote to approve the electoral reform. The opposition parties (including Forza Italia) and the left-wing of the Democratic Party compared Renzi to Benito Mussolini.

> Election of the President of the Italian Republic and the end of the Nazareno Pact

Incumbent President Giorgio Napolitano resigned and was time for a new election. Forza Italia and Berlusconi tried to form an alliance with Popular Area and the North League, in order to be stronger on the negotiations with Renzi on the name of the next President. Renzi proposed to Berlusconi various names and at the end he supported Sergio Mattarella, not so liked by Berlusconi. Berlusconi expressed his disapproval, but Renzi has gone ahead with his choice with a fine political operation, that secured the election of Mattarella on the 4th ballot with 66% of votes thanks to the support of the Democratic Party, Left Ecology Freedom, other smalls but important centre-left parties and, after a fast and loose, of Popular Area.
Forza Italia voted white card. Five Stars Movement voted for Fernando Imposimato, picked by the web. North League and Brothers of Italy voted for journalist Vittorio Feltri.
Forza Italia viewed the Renzi's move as a treachery and so the Nazareno Pact was definitely broken. No support from the Berlusconi's party at the Renzi's Senate and electoral reforms in the future.

> Immigration

A major problem Renzi has faced is illegal immigration to Italy, which emerged as a result of the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars. The increase in numbers of refugees and migrants prompted criticism of Renzi, expecially from the North League of Matteo Salvini.
In November 2014 the Italian-run rescue option Operation Mare Nostrum was replaced by Frontex's Operation Triton, due to the refusal by several EU governments to fund it.

> School reform

On September 2014, Renzi announced an online consultation with students, teachers and citizens ahead of a school reform.
On July 2015, the school reform have been approved by the Chamber of Deputies. That reform was strongly opposed by the left-wing of the Democratic Party.

[Senator Cris]

Italian Election Game - Introduction

The previous elections

> 2014 European Election

Democratic Party 40.8%
Five Stars Movement 21.2%
Forza Italia 16.8%
North League 6.2%
Popular Area 4.4%
Other Europe 4%
Brothers of Italy – National Alliance 3.7%
Others 2.9%

> 2015 Regional Elections

VENETO (LN, FI, FDI HOLD) – Zaia (LN, FI, FDI) 50.1% Moretti (PD, Left) 22.8% Berti (M5S) 11.9% Tosi (AP) 11.9%
LIGURIA (FI, LN, FDI, AP PICK-UP) – Toti (FI, LN, FDI, AP) 34.4% Paita (PD) 27.8% Salvatore (M5S) 24.8% Pastorino (Left) 9.4%
TUSCANY (PD HOLD) – Rossi (PD) 48% Borghi (LN, FDI) 20% Giannarelli (M5S) 15.1% Mugnai (FI) 9.1% Fattori (Left) 6.3%
MARCHE (PD HOLD) – Ceriscioli (PD) 41.1% Maggi (M5S) 21.8% Acquaroli (LN, FDI) 19% Spacca (FI, AP) 14.2% Mentrasti (Left) 3.8%
UMBRIA (PD, Left HOLD) – Marini (PD, Left) 42.8% Ricci (FI, LN, FDI, AP) 39.3% Liberati (M5S) 14.3%
CAMPANIA (PD PICK-UP) – De Luca (PD) 41.2% Caldoro (FI, FDI, AP) 38.4% Ciarambino (M5S) 17.5% Vozza (Left) 2.2%
APULIA (PD, Left HOLD) – Emiliano (PD, Left) 47.1% Laricchia (M5S) 18.4% Schittulli (CR, FDI, AP) 18.3% Poli Bortone (FI, LN) 14.4%

PD = Democratic Party
LN = North League
FI = Forza Italia
FDI = Brothers of Italy – National Alliance
AP = Popular Area
Left = Left
M5S = Five Stars Movement
CR = Conservatives and Reformers

[Senator Cris]

Italian Election Game - Introduction

The 8 parties:

DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PARTITO DEMOCRATICO)
Leader: Matteo Renzi
PM Candidate: Matteo Renzi
Political position: centre-left
Ideology: Social democracy, Christian left, Europeanism, Social liberalism

After the split of the left-wing, the Democratic Party decided to not waste precious time in a primary with a sure winner and nominated Matteo Renzi as their candidate for Prime Minister.
Other centre-left minor parties, as the Socialists, Democratic Centre, were included in the list with various candidates.

UNITED LEFT (SINISTRA UNITA)
Leader: TBD
PM Candidate: TBD
Political position: Left-wing
Ideology: Democratic socialism, Eco-socialism, Communism

After the passage of the Senate reform, the left-wing of the Democratic Party, led by Gianni Cuperlo and Pier Luigi Bersani left the Democratic Party. There is a potential for a strong result for the left and so the various parties and movements of the italian left, despite their differences, decided to run into a united list that might be a united party in the future. The list will be composed by the left-wing of the Democratic Party (led by Cuperlo and Bersani), Left Ecology Freedom (led by Nichi Vendola), Possible (led by Pippo Civati), Unions (led by FIOM leader Maurizio Landini) the Communists and the movement of Stefano Fassina, that left the Democratic Party early in the year.
The Prime Minister candidate will be selected by an assembly. Potential candidates are Maurizio Landini (leader of Unions and of trade union FIOM), Pippo Civati (former MEP of the Democratic Party, leader of his movement “Possible), Stefano Fassina (former member of the Democratic Party), Pier Luigi Bersani (former PM candidate in 2013, leader of the left-wing of the Democratic Party), Arturo Scotto (leader of Left Ecology Freedom in the House), Marco Furfaro (a young member of Left Ecology Freedom, candidate in the 2014 EP election). The decision will be on the player's hands.

FORZA ITALIA
Leader: Silvio Berlusconi
PM Candidate to primary: TBD
Political position: Centre-right
Ideology: Liberal conservatism, Christian democracy, Populism

Silvio Berlusconi is still the “moral leader” of Forza Italia, but he refused to be the Prime Minister candidate, saying that it's time for new faces and officially endorsing a centre-right primary. The North League and Brothers of Italy's decisions are still not clear, but Forza Italia will partecipate in the centre-right primary, along with Conservative and Reformists of Raffaele Fitto. Berlusconi meeted with both Salvini and Meloni on the last week and a final decision of the leaders of North League and Brothers of Italy is expected within two weeks.
Regardless of the decisions of Salvini and Meloni, Forza Italia is already working on selecting a candidate. Potential candidates for the primary are Giovanni Toti (Governor of Liguria, elected in 2015 in a major upset, very close to Berlusconi), Marina Berlusconi (Businesswoman, daughter of Silvio Berlusconi, which doesn't want her to run), Mara Carfagna (former minister of the Berlusconi Cabinet, home region of Campania), Andrea Cattaneo (former Mayor of Pavia, leader of people of FI that wants a primary), Andrea Romizi (Mayor of Perugia, a fresh face of Forza Italia) and Claudio Ricci (Mayor of Assisi, 2015 candidate of the regional election in Umbria, he nearly defeated the incumbent democrat). The decision will be on the player's hands.

CONSERVATIVES AND REFORMISTS (CONSERVATORI E RIFORMISTI)
Leader: Raffaele Fitto
PM Candidate to primary: Raffaele Fitto
Political position: Centre-right
Ideology: Conservatism, Liberal conservatism, Christian democracy, Moderate euroscepticism

MEP and former Apulia Governor Raffaele Fitto left Forza Italia in early 2015 after a controversy with Silvio Berlusconi and the party for the exclusion of the candidates close to Fitto on the lists of Forza Italia in the 2015 Regional Election in Apulia, the home-region of Fitto, where he is still strong.  In that election, Forza Italia ran Adriana Poli Bortone, gaining 14%. Fitto, with the support of Brothers of Italy and Popular Area, ran Francesco Schittulli, that won 18% of the vote.
Fitto formed this new party and will be a candidate in the centre-right primary.

NORTH LEAGUE/US WITH SALVINI (LEGA NORD/NOI CON SALVINI)
Leader: Matteo Salvini
PM Candidate (to primary ?): TBD
Political position: Right-wing
Ideology: Regionalism, Federalism, Populism, Anti-immigration, Euroscepticism, Anti-globalization

The North League and Matteo Salvini have a though decision to make: running in a centre-right primary or running alone, maybe with Brothers of Italy? With the current electoral law, according to the recent polls, the runoff would be Democratic Party vs. Five Stars Movement. If the North League wants to go the runoff, the realistic way is winning the centre-right primary and then lead the centre-right united list in the general election.
Salvini might run alone, but to get the runoff, he'd need a phenomenal campaign. Unlikely. The decision will be in the player's hands.
Matteo Salvini is the clear lead of the North League, but according to some people, Veneto Governor Luca Zaia (re-elected in 2015, more moderate than Salvini) would be a more acceptable choice for the moderates, that in Italy are a big part of the electorate. According to some analyists, Salvini might consider that option if he'll decide to run on the centre-riht primary. But Salvini has an highest name recognition than Zaia and Salvini is liked not only by North League voters, but by Forza Italia voters too. The decision will be in the player's hands.

BROTHERS OF ITALY – NATIONAL ALLIANCE (FRATELLI D'ITALIA – ALLEANZA NAZIONALE)
Leader: Giorgia Meloni
PM Candidate (to primary ?): Giorgia Meloni
Political position: Right-wing
Ideology: National conservatism, Nationalism, Euroscepticism, Social conservatism

Brothers of Italy and Georgia Meloni are supporters of centre-right primary and unity from a long time, but at the same time they are very close to the North League of Matteo Salvini, as they ran togheter in 5/6 regions on the last regional elections, some times against Forza Italia. Brothers of Italy's decision will be affected by the North League's decision. If Salvini will decide to join a unity list and so a primary, Brothers of Italy will join the primary too and Georgia Meloni will be the candidate. If not, Brothers of Italy will have to do a though decision: running with the North League on a joint list (but, dear player, this would mean that you'll not play too long on this game, because Salvini would be the PM candidate of that list), running in the centre-right primary with Georgia Meloni as PM candidate or running alone, without both Forza Italia and North League (remember that the treshold is 3%)? The decision is on the hands of the player.

POPULAR AREA – ACT! (AREA POPOLARE – FARE!)
Leader: TBD
PM Candidate: TBD
Political position: Centre to Centre-right
Ideology: Christian democracy, Conservatism, Liberalism, Liberal conservatism, Europeanism

Forza Italia and North League refused to form an alliance with Popular Area. This party, a government party, is considered too close to Renzi by Berlusconi and expecially by Salvini which consider Angelino Alfano as the major responsible of the immigration crisis. They might have run with the Democratic Party, but Renzi refused that option, considered that the Alfano's party is not liked by the democratic electorate, considered his stances on social issues. So Popular Area will run alone, trying to break the 3% threshold.
Act! Is a movement launched by Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi, that left the North League in early 2015 after controversy with Matteo Salvini. In the 2015 regional election in Veneto, Tosi ran an independent campaign against North League's incumbent Governor Zaia. Zaia won re-election with 50% of vote. Tosi, supported by his movement and Popular Area, gained 12% of the votes, falling behind the M5S candidate by few votes. Tosi has not space in the centre-right primary and so he decided to form a united electoral list with Popular Area.
The two parties will have to decide the PM Candidate in the next week. Various options are Interior Minister Angelino Alfano (leader of Popular Area), Health Minister Beatrice Lorenzin (member of Popular Area) and Flavio Tosi. The decision is in the player's hands.

FIVE STARS MOVEMENT (MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE)
Leader: Beppe Grillo
PM Candidate: TBD
Political position: ?
Ideology: Populism, Degrowth, E-democracy, Anti-establishment, Environmentalism, Eurosceptiscism

After a big loss in the 2014 European Election, the Movement recovered and performed strongly in the 2015 Regional elections. The split of the left-wing of the Democratic Party put the M5S in a stronger position, but the movement will have to fight hard to get the runoff if the centre-right will do an united list. Beppe Grillo is the leader of the Five Stars Movement, but there are still doubts about who'll be the PM candidate. Various times, Grillo expressed his will to have a young leader at the head of the Movement, and these are the potential PM candidates. The Movement will decide the candidate by an intenet consultation (it's obviously simulated by the M5S player). If Beppe Grillo will decide to run, then he will presumably win the nomination uncontested. If not (and that's in the player's hands), various candidates are rising stars Luigi Di Maio, Alessandro Di Battista and Roberto Fico. Both of them are Mps. If Grillo will not run, the player will have to decide which of these rising stars will run for the nomination (it might be only one candidate that wins uncontested) and obviously who wins.

About the environment: don't forget that Italy is a country that generally leans towards the centre/centre-right.

[Senator Cris]

Italian Election Game - Introduction

The Scenario

The final vote of the Senate reform was scheduled on September 15, 2015. The left-wing of the Democratic Party voted against the reform, along with the other opposition parties (Forza Italia, Five Stars Movement, North League and others). At the end of the day, the reform passed the Senate by only 2 votes, thanks to help of some Senators close to Denis Verdini, that left Forza Italia in the summer of 2015.
Renzi perfectly know that he can't govern with a 2-votes margin. Strong of his record and of the polls that are showing a lead in the polls, Renzi resigned in the hands of President Sergio Mattarella.
The Italicum was supposed to enter into force in July 2016, too late for the new General election, and the current electoral law (a pure proportional system) would bring to
ungovernability, and so he anticipated the enter into force of the electoral votes with a decree.
The next General election is scheduled on November 29.

The new electoraly system:

> What you need to know

- There will not be coalitions of parties, but only single lists.
- The list that reaches 40% of the votes gets a majority prize (majority of House seats). If no list will reach 40%, there will be a runoff between the 2 lists that got the most votes on the first round. In both cases, the winner will get 55% of total House seats.
- To get MPs, a list needs at least 3% of votes.

> Things that will not affect the game

- The Senate will not be elected by people, but it's a thing that wouldn't affect the game and so we'll play only the House election.
- There will be alternance man-woman in the formation of the lists
- There will be double gender preference (one man, one woman)
- Italy will be divided into 100 electoral districts

Dates and rules of the game:

> Schedule

Convocation of new election: September 19
Deadline for North League and Brothers of Italy to make clear their intentions about the primary: September 25
Centre-right primary debate #1: October 3
Centre-right primary debate #2: October 15
Centre-right primary: October 18
Official presentation of the candidates: October 18-20 (On that date, the parties should make clear what's the name of the PM candidate of each list)
General election debate #1: October 30
General election debate #2: November 21
General Election: November 29

> Rounds

Round #1: September 19-25 (including deadline for North League and Brothers of Italy)
Round #2: September 26-October 3 (including #1 centre-right debate)
Round #3: October 4-10
Round #4: October 11-18 (including #2 centre-right debate)
Centre-right primary
Round #5: October 19-25 (including deadline for PM candidates)
Round #6: October 26-November 1 (including #1 general election debate)
Round #7: November 2-8
Round #8: November 9-15
Round #9: November 16-22 (including #2 general election debate)
Round #10: November 23-29
General Election

> Rules

- During all rounds, you can post all the posts that you want. Not only schedules, but you can interact (see the 2016 game of darth).
- Each round will last for 4 days, but considered that it's italian politics, and so it's not familiar at all, you can ask for extentions in all moments.

> Sign-ups

72 hours for sign-ups. Considered that 2 users have already expressed their desired parties, I think it's correct already giving these parties to them.

Democratic Party - darthebearnc
Five Stars Movement – Politicus
North League – Cranberry
Forza Italia - Barnes
United Left - Antonio V
Brothers of Italy – National Alliance - FredLindq
Popular Area – Act! - Kingpoleon
Conservatives and Reformists - Intell

Players defeated in centre-right primary will be forced to get out of the game. Considered that at the moment there are 7 players for 8 parties, if we'll not able to get the 8th player, I'd like to take Conservatives and Reformists, that's the party that has the lower chance to win the centre-right primary.

If you have questions, thoughts, doubts... please post them here or send me a PM!

[Senator Cris]

Italian Election Game - Introduction

First polls:

* For the primary I inserted the most likely candidates for each party, but there might be other candidates for Forza Italia.

GENERAL ELECTION:

Democratic Party 31%
Five Stars Movement 25%
North League 16%
Forza Italia 11%
United Left 7%
Brothers of Italy – NA 4%
Popular Area – Act! 3%
Conservatives and Reformists 1%
Others 2%

Democratic Party 31%
Centre-right unity list 30%
Five Stars Movement 26%
United Left 7%
Popular Area – Act! 4%
Others 3%

RUNOFFS:

Democratic Party 52%
Five Stars Movement 48%

Democratic Party 56%
North League 44%

Democratic Party 57%
Forza Italia + CR 43%

Democratic Party 53%
Centre-right united 47%

CENTRE-RIGHT PRIMARY:

Salvini 46%
Toti 23%
Meloni 22%
Fitto 9%

Meloni 31%
Toti 30%
Zaia 28%
Fitto 11%

Meloni 43%
Toti 36%
Fitto 21%

Toti 57%
Fitto 43%

[Cranberry]

Sì, finalmente!

I am really looking forward to playing this, as Lega Nord; I'm convinced this will be great fun!

[/]

I'll play as the Democratic Party, if you don't mind (sorry, I'm cheesy).

Thanks!

[Barnes]

I'll play as United Left.

I'm sorry, scratch that. I'd like to play as Forza Italia.

[FredLindq]

I will play Frattelis (Brothers off Italy)!

[Senator Cris]

Update:

Democratic Party - darthebearnc
Five Stars Movement – Politicus
North League – Cranberry
Forza Italia - Barnes
United Left -
Brothers of Italy – National Alliance - FredLindq
Popular Area – Act! -
Conservatives and Reformists -

3 parties to go!
I still hope that we'll get another 3 players. If we'll get only another 2 players, then I'll play as the remaining party (in this case, I'd like to play as Conservatives and Reformists and let the other 2 players to play as Popular Area and United Left, because the players of these 2 parties will play until the end of the game).

[Senator Cris]

Don't forget that if the primary will be played by all 4 centre-right parties (Forza Italia, North League, Brothers of Italy and Conservatives and Reformists), at the end of the primary the player of the winning candidate will continue to play and the other 3 (2 if I'll play as Conservatives and Reformists) will not be able to play.

[politicus]

Disappointed Antonio hasn't joined this. Did you invite him?

[Senator Cris]

Disappointed Antonio hasn't joined this. Did you invite him?

Yes. I contacted via PM all the 7 users that were willing to play.
But don't worry. His last activity is of yesterday, I started this today. There is still time.

[politicus]

Disappointed Antonio hasn't joined this. Did you invite him?

Yes. I contacted via PM all the 7 users that were willing to play.
But don't worry. His last activity is of yesterday, I started this today. There is still time.

Good.

Keep United Left open for him. Doubt he would want to play as a right winger.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll take United Left.

[politicus]

I'll take United Left.

[Kingpoleon]

Could I reserve Popular Area?

I'd like to play, and I can fill out anything official within exactly sixteen hours.

[Senator Cris]

Could I reserve Popular Area?

I'd like to play, and I can fill out anything official within exactly sixteen hours.

That's ok with me!

[Intell]

Is there any parties left for me to play?

[Senator Cris]

Is there any parties left for me to play?

Yes. There is Conservatives and Reformists.

But there is also another user (palandio) that said that he was willing to play, so we might have 9 parties instead of 8!
So we need to split some parties.
We might split Popular Area and Act! (in this case Act! would run in the centre-right primary) or split United Left between the left-wing of Democratic Party and Left Ecology Freedom/Communists.

What do you think?

[Intell]

Is there any parties left for me to play?

Yes. There is Conservatives and Reformists.

But there is also another user (palandio) that said that he was willing to play, so we might have 9 parties instead of 8!
So we need to split some parties.
We might split Popular Area and Act! (in this case Act! would run in the centre-right primary) or split United Left between the left-wing of Democratic Party and Left Ecology Freedom/Communists.

What do you think?

Yea, that would be good, only if it's possible though.

[Senator Cris]

Is there any parties left for me to play?

Yes. There is Conservatives and Reformists.

But there is also another user (palandio) that said that he was willing to play, so we might have 9 parties instead of 8!
So we need to split some parties.
We might split Popular Area and Act! (in this case Act! would run in the centre-right primary) or split United Left between the left-wing of Democratic Party and Left Ecology Freedom/Communists.

What do you think?

Yea, that would be good, only if it's possible though.

Yes, it's possible.

If there is another player, we'll have 10 partecipants and we can play with 10 partecipants too.

[Kingpoleon]

Could I reserve Popular Area?

I'd like to play, and I can fill out anything official within exactly sixteen hours.

That's ok with me!

So I don't need anything filled out?

[Senator Cris]

Could I reserve Popular Area?

I'd like to play, and I can fill out anything official within exactly sixteen hours.

That's ok with me!

So I don't need anything filled out?

No. The first round will start on the day after tomorrow. Then you'll have to post your schedules and other stuff that I'll explain soon

[Senator Cris]

If palandio will join, then we'll split Popular Area and Act!
If not, Kingpoleon will take Popular Area - Act!