VT-GOV: Phil Scott in

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://m.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2015/09/08/scott-pins-gubernatorial-campaign-on-fiscal-responsibility

ENDORSED

Ratings Change - VT-GOV - Likely D ---> Toss-Up

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - strongest possible Republican GE candidate. But - may have problems in primary. Vermont Republican activists are not so conservative as medium national, but still lean right. That may give more conservative Lisman his only real chance

[Oldiesfreak1854]

YES!!!  Endorsed!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Obviously - strongest possible Republican GE candidate.

What if Brock and/or Milne run?

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - strongest possible Republican GE candidate.

What if Brock and/or Milne run?

He is stronger then both of them.

[CatoMinor]

I'm thinking this race is likely R if he wins the nomination.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Huge pushover. There will be little to no net policy change coming out of Vermont's capital.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R, Dems are perfectly willing to pass on this one and WVa and win IN& NC

[Rockefeller GOP]

Tilt R, Dems are perfectly willing to pass on this one and WVa and win IN& NC

Straight from the DNC's playbook, gang!

[Maxwell]

Huge pushover. There will be little to no net policy change coming out of Vermont's capital.

Agreed. Vermont's legislature is very much Democrat, to the point where Scott will basically be a figurehead.

[SATW]

endorsed !!!

[Free Bird]

*Grins* Endorsed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wish Shumlin well when he successfully wins Bernie Sanders seat; since Sanders last tour is now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Vermont's tradition of flipping parties after each governorship might continue (which has been in place since 1961). Starts out as toss-up, can even lean R if the D's don't nominate someone very popular or important.

[MT Treasurer]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

[Xing]

Good news for Vermont Republicans, but not necessarily for those hoping for a truly conservative agenda in Vermont.

[Maxwell]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Good news for Vermont Republicans, but not necessarily for those hoping for a truly conservative agenda in Vermont.

If truly conservative means the national GOP's platform, then that's not what Vermont Republicans want.

[mds32]

I think the GOP holds NC and IN, but with Scott I think VT has become the most likely GOP Pickup opportunity. WV and MO are looking like tougher nuts to crack for the GOP so far with primaries and billionaires standing in their way.

[MT Treasurer]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

[Maxwell]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

What do you mean its drivel? The numbers clearly show the trend! The Governor there is not very popular, the candidates in the Democratic Party aren't especially promising - one is a billionaire who can really easily be painted as out of touch and crooked, the other an entrenched politico who probably won't win the primary anyway. If you look at polling right now - Cole already leads Kessler, and though Justice leads Cole at the moment, you look at the record for West Virginia polls as of late, and one thing is for sure - they overestimate Democratic performance. Big time. Combine that with a year where the Democratic candidate is obviously going to be clobbered in the Presidential race, and it's kind of hard to imagine either Justice or Kessler pulling it out.

[MT Treasurer]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

What do you mean its drivel? The numbers clearly show the trend! The Governor there is not very popular, the candidates in the Democratic Party aren't especially promising - one is a billionaire who can really easily be painted as out of touch and crooked, the other an entrenched politico who probably won't win the primary anyway. If you look at polling right now - Cole already leads Kessler, and though Justice leads Cole at the moment, you look at the record for West Virginia polls as of late, and one thing is for sure - they overestimate Democratic performance. Big time. Combine that with a year where the Democratic candidate is obviously going to be clobbered in the Presidential race, and it's kind of hard to imagine either Justice or Kessler pulling it out.

This is mostly true, but I doubt that the Republican candidate will have any coattails. Romney destroyed Obama in WV, yet Democrats won the Senate race, the Governor race and every other statewide race except Attorney General (that's much better than what VA Republicans have "accomplished" in the past years). Is 2016 going to be more difficult for WV Dems? Of course. But is the race unwinnable for them? No. It's a Toss-up/tilt R at this point, whereas VT would be "tilt/leans R" with Scott. But that's just my opinion, y'all can feel free to disagree.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

What do you mean its drivel? The numbers clearly show the trend! The Governor there is not very popular, the candidates in the Democratic Party aren't especially promising - one is a billionaire who can really easily be painted as out of touch and crooked, the other an entrenched politico who probably won't win the primary anyway. If you look at polling right now - Cole already leads Kessler, and though Justice leads Cole at the moment, you look at the record for West Virginia polls as of late, and one thing is for sure - they overestimate Democratic performance. Big time. Combine that with a year where the Democratic candidate is obviously going to be clobbered in the Presidential race, and it's kind of hard to imagine either Justice or Kessler pulling it out.

This is mostly true, but I doubt that the Republican candidate will have any coattails. Romney destroyed Obama in WV, yet Democrats won the Senate race, the Governor race and every other statewide race except Attorney General (that's much better than what VA Republicans have "accomplished" in the past years). Is 2016 going to be more difficult for WV Dems? Of course. But is the race unwinnable for them? No. It's a Toss-up/tilt R at this point, whereas VT would be "tilt/leans R" with Scott. But that's just my opinion, y'all can feel free to disagree.

The reason why Manchin won by so much was because the republicans ran Raese again, who couldn't come close in 2010 (!). I can't speak for the other statewide offices, but for governor the fact is that Bill Maloney was a much weaker candidate than Cole is, and Maloney came pretty close to winning.

Yeah, it's possible that WV becomes like KY - Solid R for the senate but purple to purple-blue for state offices. But using 2012 to argue for why the race doesn't lean republicans falls flat pretty quickly.

[RFayette]

Scott has a very reasonable chance winning this race.  Of course, Vermont's legislature will remain very much Democratic-dominated and will remain a bastion of liberal public policy.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

We also have to remember being popular in a joke position like Lt. governor does not imply carrying that popularity over to a position of actual power.