Dem. candidate won't be America's next president

[Bro Rogers]

The political experts have made a research and noticed that member of the same political party cannot be elected for the third term if the current president has less than 50% of public approval.
But it's really hard to believe that Obama can gain 12% of reputation now.
Hillary and Bernie now have to stop paying for their campaigns and start sponsoring the "support Obama" campaign.

[kashifsakhan]

I think next year's general election will have one of the weakest line ups in recent memory. The Dems have poor candidates, while the GOP have some even worse ones.

I'd predict the Dems to take it just because the GOP needs to flip too many 2012 Democrat states to win the election.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

disregarding the fact that that's a dumb statement to make in the first place... obama wouldn't need to gain 12%. he's currently at 46-50 in the rcp average.

[Lief 🗽]

The political experts have made a research

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The political experts have made a research

I'm guessing those are the same political experts who said Obama couldn't be re-elected because no incumbent had ever won with as high unemployment as in 2012...

[Figueira]

I think next year's general election will have one of the weakest line ups in recent memory. The Dems have poor candidates, while the GOP have some even worse ones.

I'd predict the Dems to take it just because the GOP needs to flip too many 2012 Democrat states to win the election.

Flipping states isn't as hard as people seem to think it is (Obama flipped lots of states in 2008, as did Bush in 2000, Clinton in 1992, Reagan in 1980, etc.), but I agree that the Democrats will win because the Republicans have such terrible candidates, and their views tend to be rather unpopular these days.

Also, obligatory http://xkcd.com/1122

[/]

The political experts have made a research

Quite an interesting research, in fact.

[Oakvale]

[MisSkeptic]

We're going to need more sources for your claim OP. But I disagree that a Democratic candidate won't be our next President. Because anything is possible!

[Likely Voter]

The political experts have made a research .

[eric82oslo]

The political experts have made a research and noticed that member of the same political party cannot be elected for the third term if the current president has less than 50% of public approval.
But it's really hard to believe that Obama can gain 12% of reputation now.
Hillary and Bernie now have to stop paying for their campaigns and start sponsoring the "support Obama" campaign.

According to Gallup's most recent survey, Obama is now at 49% approval, so he'd only have to improve his numbers by 1%. Sounds kind of doable to me.

[Maxwell]

President Obama was not supposed to be re-elected if we went by what political "experts" told us. Joke analysis.

[Brewer]

The political experts have made a research

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The political experts have made a research

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The political experts have made a research

I'm guessing those are the same political experts who said Obama couldn't be re-elected because no incumbent had ever won with as high unemployment as in 2012...

The xkcd webcomic has a nice deconstruciton of this:
https://xkcd.com/1122/

[OSR stands with Israel]

The political experts have made a research

I'm guessing those are the same political experts who said Obama couldn't be re-elected because no incumbent had ever won with as high unemployment as in 2012...

 FDR in 1936 and 1940 had higher unemployment then Obama in 2012 , and Reagan in 1984 had similar unemployment numbers then Obama in 2012

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think next year's general election will have one of the weakest line ups in recent memory. The Dems have poor candidates, while the GOP have some even worse ones.

I'd predict the Dems to take it just because the GOP needs to flip too many 2012 Democrat states to win the election.

Flipping states isn't as hard as people seem to think it is (Obama flipped lots of states in 2008, as did Bush in 2000, Clinton in 1992, Reagan in 1980, etc.), but I agree that the Democrats will win because the Republicans have such terrible candidates, and their views tend to be rather unpopular these days.

Also, obligatory http://xkcd.com/1122

Republicans are today in the same position as the Democrats were from 1968-1992. They need their version of Bill Clinton, a moderate with a strong record to get out of the wilderness, and I believe that person in John Kasich

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The political experts have made a research

I'm guessing those are the same political experts who said Obama couldn't be re-elected because no incumbent had ever won with as high unemployment as in 2012...

 FDR in 1936 and 1940 had higher unemployment then Obama in 2012 , and Reagan in 1984 had similar unemployment numbers then Obama in 2012

The unemployment rate matters in presidential elections, but not in the way "pundits" think. It's about the trend i.e. whether it's going up or down, not about whether it's objectively high or low.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think next year's general election will have one of the weakest line ups in recent memory. The Dems have poor candidates, while the GOP have some even worse ones.

I'd predict the Dems to take it just because the GOP needs to flip too many 2012 Democrat states to win the election.

Flipping states isn't as hard as people seem to think it is (Obama flipped lots of states in 2008, as did Bush in 2000, Clinton in 1992, Reagan in 1980, etc.), but I agree that the Democrats will win because the Republicans have such terrible candidates, and their views tend to be rather unpopular these days.

Also, obligatory http://xkcd.com/1122

Four (4) of the Clinton states Bush flipped were Southern states that were trending GOP and noted that Gore ran a more liberal campaign than Clinton.  Two (2) was a border state that were more Democratic, but were coal producers.  The others (NH, NV, MO, OH) were classic swing states.

In 2008. Obama won swing states (FL, NH, NV, NC, OH, CO)  Note that 4 of those states have had upticks in Hispanic voters (FL, NC, CO, NV).  Indeed, the demographic changes in NV and VA (which was never considered a swing state until 2008) were so profound that they now are, truly, "Lean Democrat" states in Presidential elections.  (IN was, IMO, a pure product of the auto industry meltdown; it's not really a swing state.)

Most of these shifts (A) were somewhat predictable in advance, and (B) had little to do with the quality of the campaign.  Are there any states that are trending one way or another to indicate that they will now become swing states?

CO, OH, and FL are true swing states.

NC Leans Republican

NH, VA, and NV Lean Democratic

MO is Lean Republican at most, Likely Republican under normal conditions.

Really, the only Blue States that are shifting red are PA and IA.  IA is a "swing state" as it carried for Bush in 2004, but if PA is now a swing state, it's all due to coal and fracking.  I kind of have to be seen.

[President Johnson]

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I agree... MA. Gov. Charlie Baker might be also such a person in the future (maybe in 2020, if Hillary wins).