2016, The Year of Enigmas - Yet Another 2016 TL

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Great job! The detail is amazing.

I'm betting that Biden and Rubio maintain their frontrunner statuses, with Clinton eventually dropping out due to losing her biggest bastion of support (the South) and Rubio/Cruz basically becoming the two most dominant Reps as the others realize their days are numbered.

How did Alaska go for Rubio?

[Bigby]

Great job! The detail is amazing.

I'm betting that Biden and Rubio maintain their frontrunner statuses, with Clinton eventually dropping out due to losing her biggest bastion of support (the South) and Rubio/Cruz basically becoming the two most dominant Reps as the others realize their days are numbered.

How did Alaska go for Rubio?

It was an upset. Palin endorsed Cruz since Trump got shot in January. However, Paul's political endorsement of Rubio translated into more libertarian support for Rubio there than elsewhere, even though it helped him nationwide too. It helps that Rubio won over moderate and establishment support with flying colors since Kasich and Christie did not even try in Alaska. Ditto for Wyoming.

[Maxwell]

Not sure about Obama outright trashing another Democrat, but I'm willing to accept the idea that he would endorse Biden.

[Kingpoleon]

Rubio-Kasich

AG: Chris Christie

[Bigby]

Rubio-Kasich

AG: Chris Christie

We'll see on both. I do promise that things will get interesting, though.

[Bigby]

Fiorina, Kasich Drop Out, Make Endorsements.

March 2nd, 2016.

CEO Carly Fiorina and Fmr. Governor George Pataki have withdrawn from the Republican race. Both cited poor performances on Super Tuesday as their main reasoning for their respective withdrawals. Though Fiorina did win prominent percentages in many states, she failed to pick up any new delegates. Pataki did not place anything significant. Both candidates declared an endorsement in their dropping out speeches.

"This year is not the year of Fiorina, and I'm not going to deny it. I am withdrawing from the Republican primaries, and I will endorse Senator Marco Rubio. That includes pledging my 11 delegates to him. While I am endorsing Rubio, I am not going to make any public appearances for him or any other candidate. I am returning to private life completely."

"Look, I'm not going anywhere with this whole campaign. I am suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor John Kasich. We've got to keep the lunatics from winning somehow."

Pataki had failed to amass any delegates at all, so his endorsement of Kasich was seen as merely a reconfirmation of Kasich as the moderate choice. However, Fiorina's endorsement of Rubio was met with far more buzz. Cruz had become a very slight frontrunner with only 5 more delegates than Rubio after Super Tuesday. That was expected to change very shortly, and with Fiorina pledging her delegates to Rubio, Cruz is back at second place before the March 5 primaries had even begun.

March 5th Primaries, Kentucky and Louisiana.

Kentucky:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 43%
Ted Cruz: 35%
Chris Christie: 15%
John Kasich: 7%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Joe Biden: 34%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Jim Webb: 5%

Louisiana:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 47%
Ted Cruz: 41%
John Kasich: 7%
Chris Christie: 5%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 52%
Hillary Clinton: 40%
Jim Webb: 4%
Bernie Sanders: 4%

Jim Webb Drops Out, Blasts Fellow Dems.

Richmond, Virginia - March 6th, 2016.

"My prospects of becoming the next President have been shot down thanks to radicals from my own party! Look, I'm in line with the Democratic Party, but the rest of the party has gotten so bad that they're as purist as the Tea Party. Not only are these pundits claiming that I'm a "DINO," but the President has even bought into this nonsense! Well, it's obvious that I'm no longer welcome. I am withdrawing from the Presidential race, but I'm not endorsing a single candidate. I refuse to endorse any other candidate even if my delegates being in the air causes a brokered convention. You reap what you sow."

March 8th Primaries, Democrats Abroad, Hawaii (GOP Only), Mississippi, Michigan

Democrats Abroad:

Bernie Sanders: 49%
Joe Biden: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 21%

Hawaii (GOP)

John Kasich: 40%
Marco Rubio: 32%
Chris Christie: 16%
Ted Cruz: 12%

Mississippi:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 52%
Marco Rubio: 35%
Chris Christie: 9%
John Kasich: 4%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 60%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 7%

Michigan:

GOP:

John Kasich: 31%
Chris Christie: 26%
Marco Rubio: 26%
Ted Cruz: 17%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 48%
Joe Biden: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 26%

Synopsis: Thanks to Paul's influence and a small boost from Fiorina, Rubio managed to snatch Kentucky, though Cruz and Christie performed well enough to gather delegates for themselves. Though he won against Cruz by only 6%, Rubio also won Louisiana with a coalition of Catholics, Cajuns, and non-Tea Party conservatives. Indeed, Cruz constantly remained a close second against Rubio in many states. Cruz only won Mississippi from the 5th to 8th, but he continues to rack up delegates and risk a brokered convention. Christie has won delegates in almost every state, though Kasich outperformed him and managed to win pluralities in Hawaii and Michigan. Hillary Clinton has managed to revive her potentially dying campaign by winning Kentucky, though troubling for her, that was her only win both days. Biden continues to sweep the South thanks to black voters while Sanders continues to dominate the Rust Belt with the support of liberals and populists. With Webb gone, Sanders has a shot at becoming the nominee, no longer burdened by the conservadem populists boosting him up at Sanders' expense.

Up Next: Puerto Rico GOP Primary, A Reminder from Reince Priebus, Maps and Delegates before March 15th, A Disastrous Turn at Albuquerque,

[Bigby]

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus Reminds Candidates of March 15th WTA Cutoff.

March 9th, 2016 - Dover, New Jersey.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus made the time in a press conference to remind the four Republican Presidential candidates that all primaries during and after March 15th must follow the Winner Take All apportionment for state delegates. The last primary that will fall under proportional apportionment will be Puerto Rico on March 13th. This rule was established to make the primaries quicker and prevent a long, drawn out season such as 2012 or a brokered convention.

A Disastrous Turn at Albuquerque! Congressman Steve Pearce Assassinated!

March 11th, 2016 - Albuquerque, New Mexico.

While in Albuquerque, Congressman Steve Pearce (R - NM) was shot by a hooded assailant. The assassin carried a sheathed blade in his sleeve, which he used to slit Pearce's throat. Although the man was successful, security managed to grab him before he could evade the crime scene. His only words were, "I'm better at this than Pancho." Many are now speculating that Pearce's assassin is either in league with Pancho, who still remains at-large, or is a copy cat of him. A funeral for Pearce will be held in his birthplace of Lamesa, Texas. Special primaries will be held on April 12th to fill Pearce's now vacant seat, and the special general election will be held on May 10th.

In Loving Memory of Steve. (August 24th, 1947 - March 11th, 2016.

Senator Marco Rubio Wins In Puerto Rico Primary!

Senator Rubio is victorious in the GOP Puerto Rico primary. While this is a big victory for Rubio, it surprises few people. Rubio is one of two Latinos in the Republican race, and despite being rather conservative on immigration, Latinos have taken more kindly to him than with Ted Cruz. He was also the only candidate to have visited Puerto Rico this cycle, having held a campaign rally in February and also on March 1st. Interestingly, Rubio is also the only candidate to receive delegates, as a mock Write-In campaign for Ricky Martin as a protest against Cruz's support from Trump blocked the other candidates from receiving a threshold of 15% in the vote count. Rubio will return to his cycle of visiting Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida after speaking to supporters in San Juan.

Marco Rubio: 61%
Ricky Martin (Write-In): 18%
John Kasich: 14%
Ted Cruz: 7%

Maps and Delegates Before March 15th:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 448 (from 342)
Ted Cruz: 409 (from 336)
John Kasich: 125 (from 98)
Chris Christie: 78 (from 53)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 449 (from 339)
Bernie Sanders: 380 (from 283)
Hillary Clinton: 348 (from 264)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Synopsis: Though Cruz is right behind him, Rubio has further cemented his victory status. Jolted by a win in Puerto Rico, Rubio's wins in Louisiana and Kentucky gave him the jolt necessary to not be overtaken by Cruz. Kasich and Christie have both continued to gain, but Cruz is currently the biggest worry for Rubio. On the Democratic side, Biden draws further away from Sanders and Clinton. Clinton is within striking distance of Sanders, but a continuous third place for the once de facto nominee is not a good showing at all. Unluckily for all three Democrats, the WTA method only applies to GOP nominees.

Up Next: Ides of March Primaries, Campaign Shifts, March 22nd Primaries.

[Enderman]

While in Albuquerque, Congressman Steve Pearce (R - NM) was shot by a hooded assailant. The assassin carried a sheathed blade in his sleeve, which he used to slit Pearce's throat. Although the man was successful, security managed to grab him before he could evade the crime scene. His only words were, "I'm better at this than Pancho.

OH NO SHAUN! Or would that be someone else? None the less, interesting read so far.

[Bigby]

While in Albuquerque, Congressman Steve Pearce (R - NM) was shot by a hooded assailant. The assassin carried a sheathed blade in his sleeve, which he used to slit Pearce's throat. Although the man was successful, security managed to grab him before he could evade the crime scene. His only words were, "I'm better at this than Pancho.

OH NO SHAUN! Or would that be someone else? None the less, interesting read so far.

I have no idea what that is an allusion to, but thanks for commenting.

[Enderman]

While in Albuquerque, Congressman Steve Pearce (R - NM) was shot by a hooded assailant. The assassin carried a sheathed blade in his sleeve, which he used to slit Pearce's throat. Although the man was successful, security managed to grab him before he could evade the crime scene. His only words were, "I'm better at this than Pancho.

OH NO SHAUN! Or would that be someone else? None the less, interesting read so far.

I have no idea what that is an allusion to, but thanks for commenting.

Shaun Hastings, from the Assassin's Creed series, that one British guy who was teamed up with Rebecca and Desmond. I guess that my reference was a bit TOO obscure

Anyways you're welcome.

[Bigby]

Ides of March Primaries!

Ohio:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 39%
John Kasich: 38%
Ted Cruz: 13%
Chris Christie: 10%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 40%
Joe Biden: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 30%

Florida:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 48%
Ted Cruz: 29%
John Kasich: 15%
Chris Christie: 8%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 23%

Illinois:

GOP:

John Kasich: 45%
Marco Rubio: 27%
Chris Christie: 15%
Ted Cruz: 13%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 34%
Joe Biden: 33%
Hillary Clinton: 33%

Missouri:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 42%
John Kasich: 27%
Marco Rubio: 27%
Chris Christie: 4%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Joe Biden: 30%

North Carolina:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 38%
Ted Cruz: 31%
John Kasich: 16%
Chris Christie: 15%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 19%

North Dakota:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 34%
Chris Christie: 27%
Marco Rubio: 24%
John Kasich: 15%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Bernie Sanders: 32%
Joe Biden: 22%

Maps and Delegates:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 685 (from 448)
Ted Cruz: 489 (from 409)
John Kasich: 169 (from 125)
Chris Christie: 78 (Unchanged)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 703 (from 449)
Hillary Clinton: 601 (from 348)
Bernie Sanders: 584 (from 380)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Synopsis: Rubio is truly pulling away from the rest of the Republican pack. With a surprise win in Ohio, he gains extra delegates that were not expected to go to him, and he also cut deep into Kasich's chances. While Kasich won in Illinois and Cruz won in Missouri and North Dakota, their chances to become nominee will lessen if Rubio continues to dominate during the WTA period. Neither of them, especially Cruz, are necessarily done for, but the more states Rubio wins, the more of a clear frontrunner he becomes. For the Democrats, the race remains much tighter. Apart from the fact that the Democratic Convention simply has more delegates than the Republican one, the three main contenders are much closer in delegate count. Hillary is finally ahead of Sanders, but by less than 20 delegates. Even worse, Sanders won in Ohio and Illinois, meaning that he could even overtake Biden once all of the Midwestern and Western states have voted if he can maintain his base. Combined with the lack of a universal WTA modifier, this means that the Democratic Convention is more likely to be brokered than the Republican one.

Up Next: Special Ohio Synopsis, March 22nd and 26th Primaries, Final Debates!

[Bigby]

(I know I'm pushing out a lot of updates this week, but the rest of October may be rather busy for me when it comes to college work, so I'm making up for it.)

Nate Silver's Look Into Rubio's Ohio Primary Win:

March 18th, 2016. (EXCERPT)

When Rubio won the Ohio primary last Tuesday, everyone was shocked. Ohio Governor John Kasich was the favorite son for that race, being a popular incumbent Governor and all. Many are wondering whether Kasich blundered hard, or if Rubio had a stroke of luck. It was neither. What cost Kasich Ohio was overt confidence in his chances. Popular incumbent or not, Kasich did not campaign actively whatsoever in his home state, and although his loss was a slim one, it was a costly one.

Since Kasich felt so cocksure in his victory in Ohio, he has not campaigned at all in his home state since January. Instead, he campaigned in the Midwest and the West where he expected to win, but needed to ensure that other candidates did not trump him. Rubio, Cruz, and Christie all filled the void made by Kasich, with Rubio being the most eager and involved candidate. Rubio expanded upon his formerly expected 15-20% roof by appealing to moderates and non-Tea Party conservatives. He particularly ate into Christie's territory, capturing a significant amount of his votes while the New Jersey Governor campaigned more in Kentucky, Illinois, and North Carolina. Rubio's more conservative brand of establishment identity also managed to keep Cruz down, who did visit Ohio but visited North Carolina twice as much. Though he only won North Carolina and his native Florida on March 15th alongside Ohio, Rubio's Ohio strategy has evidently paid off, especially to the detriment of John Kasich.

March 22nd and 26th Primaries:

Arizona:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 45%
Marco Rubio: 30%
Chris Christie: 13%
John Kasich: 12%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 40%
Hillary Clinton: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 25%

Idaho:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 51%
Ted Cruz: 39%
Chris Christie: 10%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 34%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 33%

Utah:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 45%
Ted Cruz: 27%
John Kasich: 18%
Chris Christie: 10%%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 41%
Joe Biden: 28%
Hillary Clinton: 21%

Alaska (DEM Only)

Joe Biden: 50%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Hillary Clinton: 25%

Hawaii (DEM Only)

Joe Biden: 60%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 10%

Washington:

GOP:

John Kasich: 47%
Chris Christie: 22%
Marco Rubio: 22%
Ted Cruz: 3%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 49%
Joe Biden: 33%
Hillary Clinton: 18%

Delegate Count Before Wisconsin (Maps Postponed Until Wisconsin Primary)

(Gonna go ahead and be nice enough to give delegate counts for the sake of the narrative.)

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 757 (from 685)
Ted Cruz: 547 (from 489)
John Kasich: 213 (from 169)
Chris Christie: 78 (Unchanged)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 792 (from 703)
Hillary Clinton: 663 (from 601)
Bernie Sanders: 662 (from 584)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Campaign Shifts: Final Debates Announced in Wisconsin, Candidates Begin Campaign Push in State.

As the candidates are preparing for what they hope will be their final push to victory, Wisconsin is seeing a surge in political ads and candidate appearances. The state is increasingly becoming the deciding factor in if the primary season will continue on, or if one candidate in each party can have one last triumph and finally end the season. John Kasich was the first to begin the Wisconsin push, and promises to drop out and endorse the winner should be not be the victor himself. Although no other candidate made that sort of statement, the other three Republicans followed suit. On the Democratic side, Clinton and Biden are both campaigning there to prevent another Rust Belt win for Sanders. If Sanders wins Wisconsin, then he might become a powerful force in a brokered convention. If he cannot, that lessens his chances. All in all, Wisconsin is now a kingmaker.

Both final debates will be held in Wisconsin as a result. Both will be held in Green Bay, Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. Fox News will host the Republican debate, which will be led by Bill O'Reilly. The Democratic debate will be hosted by PBS, and Judy Woodruff will be the main monitor. No other debates will be sanctioned by either party after this one, so the candidates are expected to make it count.

Up Next: The Final Republican and Democratic Debates.

[Kingpoleon]

The polls showed Kasich losing Ohio...

How, though? He's already at 29% right now, and he has +25-30 approval ratings, including 47-45 among Dems. Did Independents and Democrats who swung Kasich really hard in '14 not turn out or something?

[Kingpoleon]

The polls showed Kasich losing Ohio...

How, though? He's already at 29% right now, and he has +25-30 approval ratings, including 47-45 among Dems. Did Independents and Democrats who swung Kasich really hard in '14 not turn out or something?

+33. 62/29

[Bigby]

That wasn't the poll but the actual results. And I imagine that Independents and Democrats would not vote as heavily for Kasich in the primary here since there are options that are not Fitzgerald. Plus Rubio's win IS seen as an upset.

[Bigby]

Final Republican Debate, Hosted by Fox News.

Green Bay, Wisconsin - March 30th, 2016.

"Greetings, America. I'm your host, Bill O'Reilly, and I'm here to host the final Republican Presidential debate. We're live from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. We're down to 4 candidates, and they won't get another official chance to debate against each other, so they gotta make it count! Now, how about we begin the main attraction?"

Issues Discussed: Right-to-work laws, the Stock Market, Affirmative Action, the 2nd Amendment, Fair Trade, Sanctuary Cities, Iran, Yemen, Abortion, and the Influence of the Tea Party.

Performance by Candidate:

Rubio: It seemed that Rubio was more prepping himself for the general election, but he still performed well. Considering that Cruz was the only candidate to attack him in a significant manner and that he is the frontrunner, most political analysts believe that he can afford to do so. At least the majority of the audience believed, according to a post-debate Fox News poll, that Rubio was not flip-flopping and remained "consistent." Once again, he gave mainstream conservative views with an articulate delivery. What was interesting was one of the fair trade responses he gave, as he had not been quizzed on trade excessively. Rubio stated that he was open to raising tariffs to protect American jobs, as long as it was combined with his plans to lower taxes, something that the establishment has been wary of. A few moderate commentators openly sneered at this, but the crowd was much more receptive. Although O'Reilly was worried that this was "veering off topic," Rubio tied his Stock Market response to the issue of trade. He did admit that the Stock Market was improving, as the Dow had reached 17,000 again for the first time in 2016, the chaos of the global market "is proof that we need to safeguard the American people against the sporadic influence of China and other currently unpredictable variables." Though many Tea Party voices complained that no other candidate attacked Rubio, and that he only really challenged Cruz, the audience was pleased with Rubio's performance. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Cruz: The Texas Senator was weighed down by the unified opposition against him. He received numerous cheers from the audience, but the unwillingness of the other three candidates to attack each other took its psychological toll on Cruz. He became increasingly zealous about his role as the Tea Party voice, almost sounding hyperbolic at certain points. For example, while none of the other candidates disagreed with him when he came out against Obama's continued efforts to get gun control measures passed, they visibly held back a sneer at what became a gaffe. Cruz commented that "the only people who want to restrict the right to bear arms are just a bunch of snooty, self-righteous, Northeastern 'Starbucks Americans.'" Cruz did not get booed at by the Midwestern, mostly conservative audience, but this caused a huge uproar in social media and the entertainment industry. Although it was a lot less of a gaffe, Cruz got a little heated when discussing Iran and Yemen. He insinuated that Obama was "letting Iran take over Yemen because he is too much of a craven shrimp to dare tell a Muslim no." A Muslim audience member did not take kindly to this. He heckled Senator Cruz, who began to yell back. O'Reilly had to stop both men from their dispute so the debate could continue. Though the more conservative commentators were obviously more favorable to Cruz, most reporters agreed that the rest of Cruz's performance was excellent. However, those two gaffes, the united opposition against Cruz, and Cruz's own anger block him from gaining valuable undecideds. If he is to win Wisconsin now, he will require the full force of the state's Tea Party. (Larry Sabato Rating: Decline.)

Kasich: Kasich had promised that he was still prepared to campaign for himself and that Wisconsin was his last stand, but it eerily seemed that he was there to instead defend Rubio and attack Cruz. Kasich was still the obvious moderate voice of the four, which served his role as what Tea Partiers considered to be "the anti-Cruz agent" well. He hammered Cruz repeatedly for his answers. When Cruz made the "Starbucks Americans," remark, Kasich replied with this: "If we continue to say things like that, we will lose, Senator. We can't claim to be for all Americans when we make such bigoted remarks." Kasich definitely received more praise on that remark than Cruz did for his. O'Reilly did not seem to notice, but many commentators pointed out after the debate that Kasich was nodding his head in agreement repeatedly whenever Rubio spoke. That only served to further raise questions on whether or not Kasich is already defecting to Rubio. Kasich's closing statement was a warning against extremism. "Look, we need a candidate who does stand on his principles, but we cannot afford a zealot. Unless we all want a third term for the Democrats, we have to show that we Republicans are not crazy. I am the best candidate to show that we are a reasonable party, and even if I am not picked, I hope the next sanest person is picked." (Larry Sabato Rating: Unsure.)

Christie: The Governor refused to attack Rubio as well, but it was still obvious that he was running for his own campaign. While still obviously an establishment candidate, Christie sought after the Cruz supporters as if he were a vulture. He was the most critical of the candidates in his answers on affirmative action. He was the most "Graham-like" candidate on foreign policy, a new term coined by Rachel Maddow to mean that he was rather hawkish without getting into potentially offensive terminology. He was later grilled by conservative commentators for his "flip-flopping" on gun control, but he attacked gun control activists without the demographics remarks Cruz made. Instead, he attacked the Obama administration for trying to suppress gun rights, as "even liberals want to keep their guns." He received significantly less press than Cruz for his guns answer, but the news was much more positive and less mocking for him than it was for Cruz. Christie is still a longshot candidate, but at the very worst, he can make or break it for Rubio and Cruz. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Synopsis: Rubio will likely remain the frontrunner. As he pulls away from Cruz, he is more likely to keep his status as the consensus candidate and thus the nominee. Cruz's gaffes and the unified force against him most likely won't cost him any of his current supporters, but it will make it an uphill battle to expand his base. If Kasich wins the primary rather than Rubio, his oddly pro-Rubio debate performance will become even more odd. Christie refused to attack Rubio as well, but it was certain that he was still running for himself. Once the people of Wisconsin cast their votes, it will either prove the current mood of the debate right or wrong.

Up Next: Final Democratic Debate,

[Bigby]

Final Democratic Debate, Hosted by PBS.

Green Bay, Wisconsin - March 31st, 2016.

"Hello, and welcome to the Final Democratic Presidential debate. I am Judy Woodruff of PBS, and I am here at the Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Republicans held their debate here last night, and now the Democrats will do the same. Wisconsin has become a pivotal kingmaker, or maybe even a queenmaker, in this primary season, so let's not wait any longer."

Issues Discussed: The state of the Economy, Healthcare, Iran, Yemen, Abortion, Religious Freedom, Income Inequality, Term Limits, and the issue of Authenticity.

Performance by Candidate:

Biden: According to columnist Charles Krauthammer, Biden "is the Rubio of the Democratic Party." What he means by that is that Biden is mainline, but articulate, and has been able to dominate as the consensus candidate. After tonight's debate, many would agree with Krauthammer's assessment. Like Rubio, it seemed that the Vice President was using this last debate as a study guide for the general election. Unlike Rubio, Biden had to deflect questions from Clinton and Sanders, especially due to his status as the sitting VP. He was quizzed the hardest on foreign policy, where Obama's performance had been seen as poor for some time now. Viewers agree that he held his own, particular on the Iran Deal. He received much applause for his answer. "What the Republicans forget is that if Iran does break the deal, then we have no problem restoring sanctions. I will absolutely be willing to enforce the deal, but we have to abandon partisan bickering and actually get reform done. That goes for several other issues as well." Also like Rubio, he was able to state his party's intentions without devolving into gridlock-laden language. For example, his answer on abortion: "I am personally pro-life, but I understand from a legal standpoint that abortion is the law of the land, and we should respect that. I want to reduce abortions and make the ones we have safer, but I won't let my Catholicism interfere with the law." Many Republicans and a sizable amount of moderates and independents were at least somewhat ambivalent of that answer, but many liberals approved. Despite Biden having a gaffe-prone reputation, he remained professional and gaffe-free, also benefiting him. Biden will likely retain frontrunner status, but it is uncertain if he can avoid a brokered convention. Either way, he was the most adored candidate, so he won the debate. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Clinton: Hillary's night in Wisconsin started out unclear, but became an objective disaster with one fatal gaffe. Although her actual stances were more moderate than Biden's or Sander's, her terminology was so flooded with partisan language that even liberals began to think it was mere pandering. Phrases such as "the war on women," "the one percent," and "right-wing conspiracy" were said repeatedly. However, that was not what many considered to be "the end of Hillary." Her fatal mistake was confirming what many conservatives criticized her for: entitlement. When Woodruff asked her if she expected to become President, part of Hillary's response was: "... no matter what the Republicans say, no matter what Biden or Sanders says, and no matter what the media says, I am entitled to the Presidency. I deserve it, and I ought to get it-" When she realized what she uttered, the room went totally silent. That silence was interrupted by universal booing. After the debate, the media, both left-wing and right-wing, had a field day with it. During the rest of the night, Clinton refused to take any other question. It is the end of Hillary Clinton. (Larry Sabato Rating: Suicide.)

Sanders: The Vermont Senator was himself. Unlike Hillary, he was able to convince more moderate viewers to support him despite having more left-wing views. After Hillary's fatal gaffe, he received a full audience against Biden. He promised to defend progressive causes, but despite saying similar phrases before, did not once utter "the one percent" or anything similar. Some analysts argue that he did not want to seem similar to Hillary, while others argue that he was also preparing for the general election. Either way, that strategy worked. Like Biden, he also avoided any major gaffes, so he has a chance to face the Republicans as well. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement.)

Synopsis: Though the fear of a brokered convention still looms over the Democratic Party, their two most likely candidates, Biden and Sanders, are both in tolerable positions. Hillary had a chance during the first half of the debate, but her "entitled" gaffe set the final nail in the coffin for her campaign. The audience did not respond well to it, and neither did the media. This Wisconsin debate has cemented the Democratic primaries as a Biden vs Sanders fight.

Up Next: Wisconsin primary, Updated Maps and Delegates, and Candidate Concessions.

[Enderman]

Rubio vs Biden FTW!

[Bigby]

Biden, Rubio Win Perspective Wisconsin Primaries, Runner-Ups Deprived of Potential Traction.

April 5th, 2016.

Unsurprisingly, Senator Rubio and Vice President Biden are the winners in Wisconsin. The Republican primary was somewhat close, as Governor Walker made no official endorsement, while Senator Ron Johnson campaigned vigorously for Ted Cruz. Despite the most vocal voices in the Wisconsin GOP this cycle being pro-Tea Party ones, Cruz was unable to garner any sufficient outside votes in order to win. Not only did Rubio's debate performance aid him, but top figures in the Wisconsin GOP, such as Congressman Paul Ryan, gave him a last minute endorsement. Kasich was second, but not close. For the Democrats, Biden eeked out what might have otherwise been only a slim win for him or even a slim Sanders win. Hillary Clinton's implosion mostly benefited Biden, according to a Gallup poll. (65% of would-be Clinton voters switched to Biden, 25% switched to Sanders, and 10 stayed home.) These results may end the primary season on both and prevent the drama of a brokered convention.

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 37%
John Kasich: 24%
Ted Cruz: 23%
Chris Chrisie: 16%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 48%
Bernie Sanders: 42%
Hillary Clinton: 10%

Kasich, Clinton Drop Out. Kasich Endorses Rubio, Clinton Endorses Biden.

Columbus, Ohio - April 6th, 2015.

John Kasich spoke to the press after convening with the state legislature. Despite his loss, he took his concession well. As per his promise, since Rubio won in Wisconsin, he would pledge his support and delegates to Rubio.

"Yeah, I wanted to be President, but I do not see a path to that job anymore. I'm not going to be bitter, and instead I am going to be the Good Samaritan that God wills me to be. I not only pledge my delegates to Rubio, but I'm campaigning for him. I look forward to working with him, actually. Again, it is unfortunate that it was not my calling to be the nominee, but hey, Rubio's a great man and will be an even greater President. I can fight for him with a clear conscience and enthusiasm."

New York City, New York - April 8th, 2016.

Two days later, Clinton conceded to Biden. Unlike with Kasich, the former Secretary did not accept defeat gracefully. She appeared to be heavily intoxicated, and her mascara was running all over her face from what looked like crying. She was much quicker and less enthusiastic than Kasich as well.

"I'm pledging my delegates to Biden. Whatever. I just want to get this s[inks] over with."

Maps and Delegate Counts:

NOTE: Conceded Candidates will have their delegates merged with their chosen endorsement, but states won will still appear on the map for them.

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 1012 (from 970, 757+213)
Ted Cruz: 547 (Unchanged)
John Kasich: 213 (Withdrawn, Endorsed Rubio)
Chris Christie: 78 (Unchanged)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 1497 (from 792+663)
Bernie Sanders: 699 (from 662)
Hillary Clinton: 663 (Withdrawn, Endorsed Biden)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Constitution Party National Convention.

April 13th-16th, 2016.

The Constitution Party, though unlikely to win, has zealously announced its ticket for the 2016 Presidential Election. J.R. Myers (C - AK) has been nominated for President while 2008 Constitution Party Presidential Candidate Chuck Baldwin (R - MY) has been nominated for Vice President. The Constitution Party is not expected to win, but their convention speeches did imply that their main mission was to "defy the leftward lurch of the Republican Party." Myers sharply criticized Rubio, calling him "a liberal in conservative clothing" for allowing a "RINO like Kasich" to endorse him and work with him. Myers also admitted that he barely tolerated Cruz, and would not have voted for him either. Baldwin said in his speech that "the Republicans will burn in eternal hellfire just like the Democrats will." The next longshot party convention will be for the Libertarians from May 26th to May 30th.

[Bigby]

April 19th - 26th Primaries:

New York (April 19th):

GOP:

Chris Christie: 50%
Marco Rubio: 35%
Ted Cruz: 15%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 60%
Joe Biden: 40%

Connecticut:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 44%
Chris Christie: 43%
Ted Cruz: 13%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 65%
Joe Biden: 35%

Delaware:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 45%
Chris Christie: 40%
Ted Cruz: 15%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 70%
Bernie Sanders: 30%

Maryland:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 46%
Chris Christie: 34%
Ted Cruz: 20%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 49%
Bernie Sanders: 49%
Write-In: 2%

Pennsylvania:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 41%
Chris Christie: 32%
Ted Cruz: 25%
Rick Santorum (Write-In): 2%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 59%
Bernie Sanders: 38%
Ed Rendell (Write-In): 3%

Rhode Island:

GOP:

Chris Christie: 62%
Marco Rubio: 30%
Ted Cruz: 8%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 69%
Joe Biden: 31%

Reince Priebus, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz Urge Primaries to End.

April 28th, 2016.

The National Chairmen of both parties have urged the runner-up candidates in their parties to concede the election to the frontrunner in order to end the primary season early. According to both Priebus and DWS, it is beneficial to rally behind a candidate before the other party does. The two also tweeted their followers to encourage their candidates to fall in line.





The supporters of the runner-up candidates have not been pleased with these tweets, but DWS brought along more controversty, particularly due to her mistakenly bringing up the retired John Boehner. Both Chairmen later issued statements that they were willing to go ahead and begin funding the frontrunners should Christie, Cruz, and Sanders not comply.

Cruz Announces Ultimatum, Will Concede If He Loses May 3rd Primaries.

Austin, TX - April 29th, 2016.

Senator Ted Cruz, though in 2nd place, now only has less than half of the delegates that Senator Rubio has. As such, he has come out and promised to concede to Rubio on two conditions: Cruz wins neither Indiana nor Maine on May 3rd, and Rubio agrees to make some concessions to the Tea Party and picks a Tea Party-friendly nominee. Should Cruz win in Indiana or Maine, or if Rubio refuses to meet the Tea Party halfway, then Cruz will continue to campaign. He did not make such an offer to Chris Christie, who himself has not made a similar offer to Rubio.

Up Next: Indiana and Maine Primaries, NM-03 Special Congressional Election Results, A Worrisome Situation.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Interested to see where this goes. Commenting to get updates.

[Kingpoleon]

Rubio-Kasich 2016! Do Not Surrender!

[Bigby]

Indian and Maine Primaries:

Indiana:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 52%
Ted Cruz: 36%
Chris Christie: 12%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 55%
Bernie Sanders: 45%

Maine:

GOP:

Chris Christie: 47%
Marco Rubio: 34%
Ted Cruz: 19%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 61%
Joe Biden: 39%

Senator Cruz Concedes to Rubio, Pledges Delegates.

Washington, D.C. - May 4th, 2016.

After the Senate ended today's session, Senator Cruz met with Senator Rubio to announce his withdrawal from the 2016 Republican race. In agreement with his own ultimatum, Cruz has ended his campaign after losing Indiana and Maine. Cruz reminded Rubio that he must pick a Tea Party-friendly VP nominee. Even though Cruz would only hurt himself by revolting against Rubio's VP pick, it does give the man some influence over Rubio in the general election. Either way, Rubio has enough delegates to become the undisputed GOP nominee.

May 6th Update: Governor Chris Christie has also conceded to Rubio and has suspended his campaign. He did not pledge his delegates to Rubio, but doing so has become seen as unnecessary. Christie and Cruz have officially endorsed Rubio for the general election.

Maps and Delegates:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 1769 (from 1012+547, Final)
Ted Cruz: 547 (Withdrawn, Endorsed Rubio)
Chris Christie: 215 (from 78, Final)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 1813 (from 1497)
Bernie Sanders: 1039 (from 699)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Synopsis: Cruz's concession to Rubio has allowed Rubio to become the de facto Republican nominee for President. Rubio can now prepare for the general election and the National Convention. Meanwhile, the Democrats are still facing the primary season. Biden is close towards the majority needed to clinch the nomination, but the threat of Sanders edging out a win is still very much present. With the last few primaries being spread out over May and June, that puts the Democrats at a disadvantage over the Republicans should Biden and Sanders not make a deal.

VP Speculation for Rubio Begins.

May 6th, 2016.

People both inside and outside of the Rubio campaign have begun speculation on Rubio's VP pick. So far, Cruz has reported that he is content with the majority of Rubio's choices. The biggest Tea Party favorites for VP are Paul Broun, Ben Carson, Jim DeMint, Jim Jordan, and Cynthia Pearce. Meanwhile, the top establishment picks are Bob Ingliss, Susan Collins, Terry Brandstad, Lisa Murkowski, and Jon Huntsman. Certain compromise candidates, which both factions are rather cordial to, are currently Dave Brat, John Kasich, Rick Allen, and Carly Fiorina. Rubio has all of these candidates on a shortlist, among others. It will be two and a half months until the convention, and Rubio has declared that he will reveal his choice no earlier than July 1st, so it is currently a tossup on who the Senator picks.

Up Next: May 10th and 17th Primaries (Democrats Only), A Worrisome Situation, NM-03 Special Congressional Election Results, First GE Polls.

[Bigby]

(I apologize for the late activity, but studying for exams, working on a board mockup for my Public History class, and some tech difficulties last night kept me busy. In return, I have made this update lengthier.)

May 10th Primaries (Democrats Only)

Nebraska:

Joe Biden: 60%
Bernie Sanders: 40%

West Virginia:

Bernie Sanders: 51%
Joe Biden: 49%

Controversy Looms Over NM-02 Special Congressional Election Results!

Roswell, New Mexico - May 14th, 2016.

Although Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (D) has defeated Cynthia Pearce (R) to succeed Steve Pearce (R) as Congressman for the 2nd District of New Mexico, the results have been contested. Many towns experienced failing voting machines, tampered ballots, and other instances of voter fraud. Many towns, particularly those near the Mexican border, complained about random assailants harassing voters, particularly white voters, and preventing them from casting a ballot. While left-wing activists dismissed these criticisms as "typical Republican racism," video footage has confirmed these claims to be true in many, but not all, cities that lodged complaints. Miyagishima only leads Pearce 49-48, and neither candidate will be declared a victor until these issues are resolved. For now, NM-02 remains empty. Miyagishima has denied any involvement in these allegations.

While Mayor Miyagishima won the special election, he cannot take office until these charges are investigated. If it turns out that he was involved, or if Cynthia Pearce was the actual winner, then he will not take office at all.

Bernie Sanders Almost Assassinated! Assassin Misses Shot!

San Diego, California - March 16th, 2016.

During a campaign rally in San Diego, an assailant pulled out a semiautomatic pistol and fired at the Vermont Senator. While firing at Sanders, the would-be assassin yelled "We will not fail this time!" in Spanish. The bullet failed to hit Sanders, or anyone else, but Sanders was reportedly bleeding out of his right-ear. The assailant successfully fled the rally, but was later subdued by San Diego PD in a nearby suburb.

The assassin did not get far. When the police subdued him, he repeatedly yelled "Viva la raza de mestizos!"

The current identity of the assailant is unknown. While he did carry a similarly modified semiauto to Pancho's, he did not wear the same jacket. When unmasked, he also appeared differently in facial structure than Pancho. When asked if he had any connection to Pancho by police, the man just grinned and replied with a calm "Yes, many of us are, gringos. Our allies might surprise you."

The assailant's confiscated pistol. On the other side, the words "la arma de un amigo del Pancho" are enscribed on the grip.

Senator Sanders was rushed to the hospital. He was released shortly afterwards, but complained about loss of hearing in his ear. It is unknown if he continue his campaign.

May 17th Primaries (Democrats Only)

Oregon:

Bernie Sanders: 69%
Joe Biden: 31%

Guam:

Joe Biden: 55%
Bernie Sanders: 45%

A Worrisome Situation.

The Democrats are in a tight position. Although the stock market has risen back up, gas prices remain relatively low, and unemployment rests at a mere 6%, the party as a whole is not comfortable. Obama's approvals are only lukewarm to mixed, anti-American forces are still edging out victory in the Middle East, unions are still unable to resist the tidal wave of right-to-work laws, and now one of their major candidates was almost killed. Speaking of Presidential candidates, they may not know who will represent them before the convention. Biden is over 800 delegates ahead of Sanders, but it is unclear if he can gain enough to have a supermajority before convention. If not, then the Democrats will have the displeasure of a brokered convention. With Sanders receiving a huge boost in the polls from the failed assassination attempt, he might be able to ride a tidal wave that outright condemns the Democrats to a convention fight for their nominee. That would give Rubio the leisure of being the only confirmed candidate until late July. If the Democrats do not secure a nominee soon, then the Republicans can not only continue to push their narrative unopposed, but they could use the Democrats' brokered convention against them.

Up Next: Bad Congressmen, Sanders Makes a Decision, and Racial Controversy at UC Berkeley.

[Bigby]

Bad Congressmen: Luis Gutierrez Arrested.

Chicago, Illinois, May 20th, 2016.

Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D - IL) has been arrested outside of his Chicago home by the FBI. The man who shot Senator Bernie Sanders in San Diego has been confirmed to be a man named Hernando Nieva; his codename is also supposedly "Snowman" as a pun of his surname. When Nieva was questioned by the FBI, he listed Gutierrez as involved in the assassination attempt against Sanders. (1) Gutierrez denies any involvement, but has still been subpoenaed for interrogation. The warrant was issued earlier this morning. Nieva has not only claimed that Gutierrez paid him to assassinate Sanders, but Gutierrez has been involved in a plot to further his organization's goals.

The Biden campaign has been eerily silent. Gutierrez was one of Biden's most ardent supporters, and many campaign insiders had stated that Gutierrez would be a first pick should Biden not need to make a compromise with Sanders. Biden appears to be clean in this situation, but the association with Gutierrez might hamper him. If Gutierrez is innocent, Biden may find another VP nominee. If Gutierrez is found guilty, then Biden will have to explain why he trusted a man who tried to get the runner-up assassinated.

Sanders Recuperates, Announces New 2016 Intentions.

Burlington, Vermont - May 26th, 2016

A surviving Sanders makes his first appearance since the failed assassination. He has decided to announce his future plans in his hometown of Burlington, Vermont.

Senator Senators, though requiring the use of a hearing aid in his right ear now, has decided to make a new public appearance. He has spoken to supporters and friends alike at the event. During his speech, he remarked how "shameful" it is that Gutierrez might be involved in the attempted assassination "simply because I am running against the guy he likes." He did not directly attack Biden, but he did claim that "if the situations were reversed, Biden would not have been shot at."

Sanders also took the time to declare his future intentions for the Presidency. What he decided was unexpected.

"I am withdrawing from the Democratic primaries. I am also conceding my delegates to Vice President Joe Biden, to enable him to win the nomination. I am done vying for the party's nomination..."

Cue Silence. Sanders then grins widely, sighing happily before continuing.

"... because I am abandoning the folly of trying to run as something I am not. The two-party system is broken, and I feel ashamed for trying to use a corrupt, tainted system to pass needed reform. I am unaffiliated at heart. I want to help Americans, not Democratic cronies. Those same people just tried to get me killed! I am still running for President, but I am doing so as an Independent. If we want to buck the establishment, then we can't trust either party!"

The audience erupts in applause. Sanders smiles while adjusting his hearing aid.

This is big news. In what could divide the Democratic Party right in two, Sanders has withdrawn from the Democratic race merely to run as an Independent. The only question now is how many Democrats and left-wing Independents break to support Sanders. While he has amassed a significant amount of support in the Democratic primaries, he has built a coalition between Disaffecteds and Progressives. Most liberal Disaffecteds are expected to rush to Sanders with open arms, but many pundits are already arguing that Progressives will view this as betrayal. DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz has already voiced her scorn...

Many are voicing their disdain for DWS's tweet, but the paint has been made. Meanwhile, the Republicans are ecstatic. Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz, and RNC Reince Preibus have all stated that "they welcome Senator Sanders with open arms." Ohio Governor Kasich has commented "the Democrats are so scared that they're ganging up on us two to one just to survive." Speaker of House Raul Labrador coyly commented "and the Democrats always saw WE'RE the bickering, divided ones!" Democrats were uncertain about the future of their electoral prospects, but Sanders' third party run has only made things worse.

Racial Controversy! UC Berkeley No Longer Giving Affirmative Action for "White Hispanics."

Berkeley, California - June 1st, 2016.

UC Berkeley has come under fire for a new decision regarding their affirmation action and diversity scholarships. During the summer semester, they have decided to remove the "Hispanic or Non-Hispanic" options from their ethnicity choices. Instead, they have added "Mestizo or Mesoamerican Native" as a new racial option. White, Black, or Other Hispanics must choose whatever race they identify as outside of their Latino heritage.

The next decision was far more controversial. UC Berkeley has stated that they will no longer give any affirmation active or diversity scholarship money to any student that had previously identified as White Hispanic. In the school's official announcement, a Latin American Studies professor explained the school's position. According to the professor, "White Hispanics have just a bloody and racist history as Germanic and Slavic Whites. They have too much privilege, and do not deserve assistance like Mestizos and Amerindians." The university will allow Hispanic students who have lost affirmative action and diversity aid to retain such aid until the beginning of Fall 2016. Many Hispanic students, including those who are Black or Other Hispanics, have criticized this new policy. A Los Angeles Times poll showed that 45% of all UC Berkeley students oppose the new policy, including 53% of all Hispanic students. One student, a Chemistry Major named Yolanda Suarez, has voiced her opposition by stating her intentions to transfer to Texas A&M for the Fall 2016 semester. (2) "My skin and eyes may be light, but my genes do not erase my culture. I am a Venezuelan-American, as are my parents and grandparents. Sure, Latin-American history has many dark moments, but I myself have done no harm to anyone else, so I shouldn't be punished like this."

A few other universities and community colleges, such as San Diego State University and and Stanford University, have declared intentions to implement a similar policy. Opposition to this new concept has also already been stated, but the majority of those have been non-Californian schools, the loudest being Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The major Presidential candidates have all made comments in press releases. Senator Rubio was the most critical, taking the change personal. He stated, "Ms. Suarez is right. Just because I am white does not mean I am not Latino. This move is PC madness growing to the point of hurting students solely for their innate, uncontrollable qualities. That sounds like racism to me." Senator Sanders also disagreed with UC Berkeley's decision, but claimed that this was proof that "it is time to make college free for all students." Biden, at least to most pundits, tried to avoid answering the question directly. His only response was, "the policy should be reviewed and altered to benefit all students. No one deserves to be unfairly treated, no matter their race or ethnicity."

Up Next: First General Election Polls, Sanders' State Map, Minor Events of June and July 2016, and the Presidential Conventions.