Without the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, would there be a rising Iran or ISIS?

[Blue3]

Without the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, would there be a rising Iran or rising ISIS?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I don't think either would would happen.

[DavidB.]

Impossible to say. That being said: both.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No way ISIL would be a factor without the chaos on the ground in Iraq to give it a place to incubate.

[Hydera]

Should of added the option


'Iran would still be rising at this magnitude, even without the 2003 US invasion. But ISIS will Not'


Iran is an oil exporting based economy so its not the Iraq war would of affected them.


On the otherhand, the Iraq War was one of the distant cataylst for the rise of ISIS amongst the Sunni population upset with losing their saddam era privileges.

[Boston Bread]

Iran wouldn't have nearly as much influence over Iraq if not for the collapse of Saddam and the election of pro-Shia governments, so to an extent I'd say yes to the Iran part. The ISIS part I hope is obvious.

[Blue3]

Should of added the option


'Iran would still be rising at this magnitude, even without the 2003 US invasion. But ISIS will Not'


Iran is an oil exporting based economy so its not the Iraq war would of affected them.


On the otherhand, the Iraq War was one of the distant cataylst for the rise of ISIS amongst the Sunni population upset with losing their saddam era privileges.

It is an option.

And most of Iran's rise has been possible due to filling the vacuum left by Saddam Hussein, especially in Shia lands.

[Silent Hunter]

It's difficult to imagine Hussein's government persisting for another decade without a civil war at least as bloody as the 1991 uprisings. But it's even more difficult to imagine Hussein's government not persisting without that happening.

Voted yes to both.

It's entirely possible that Saddam Hussein would have been having a chat with the Grim Reaper anyway due to sheer old age; he would have been 78 in April.

[Silent Hunter]

Depends on how effective Uday or Qusay would have been if they'd taken over. In any rate, ISIS formed in Syria, not Iraq.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

ISIS would be a group of Islamic guerrillas who set of a suicide bomber every couple of weeks, none of which would bother Saddam (assuming he lives this long. I don't know the details of his health but I feel like he'd have died sometime around 2013) as much as Iran, which would probably be just as active in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons.

[ingemann]

Wow this is a serious good question.

Well as for Iran it was a country on the rise even before 2003, of course without the paranoia over USA in Iraq and the Bush administration behaviour toward Iran, we may have seen a early liberalisation, and avoided the era of Ahmadinejad, of course a liberalising Iran would be even stronger today.

As for ISIS, "ISIS" started in Jordan before the Iraq war, the occupation of Iraq gave proto ISIS a opportunity to move into Iraq get some experience and through a "darwinistic" selection getting a very competent leadership. So without the Iraq war ISIS as a organisation would be just another incompetent terror organisation in the Middle East.

But here's the thing, I have a hard time seeing the Middle East avoiding the Arabic spring, of course this alternate Arabic spring would likely be different, Gaddafi would like still have disappeared, Egypt and Tunisia would likely have gone the same way as we see today. But what's interesting is Iraq and Syria, I think Syria would have avoided its civil war, we would likely have seen some thousands broken skulls. But Iraq would likely have seen a major Shia uprising supported by the Iranians.