The youth vote in 2016

[RR1997]

READ THIS BEFORE VOTING ON THE POLL:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Romney overwhelmingly won the votes of 18, 19, and 20 year olds, but it was the 21-29 year olds that voted for Obama heavily, thus skewing the the results of the 18-29 y/o demographic overall.

Those who were 21-29 (back in 2012) years old remembered the wonderful Clinton presidency and the awful Bush presidency, thus they voted for Obama. On the other hand, those who were 18-20 years old were too young to remember the Clinton or Bush presidencies, and they kept on hearing negative stuff about Obama spewed by their parents and the so called "liberal" media, thus they voted Republican.

From that same article, a pollster conducted a poll back in 2012 asking high school and college students whom they're supporting in 2012. College students voted for Obama (he won them by a smaller margin than you would expect him to), but high school students voted for Obama by a MUCH smaller margin in comparison to college students. Obama barely won high school students. Also Johnson and Stein did disproportionately well if that means anything.

Also remember that Obama is very cool and hip, and Hillary is not. Also the so called "liberal" media seems to hate Hillary a lot.

In 2016, we'll get more voters who don't remember the Bush or Clinton presidencies and could vote Republican.

Just for the record, Obama won 60% of the youth vote, while Romney won 37%.

How will the 18-29 demographic vote in 2016?

As long as the candidate is not Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or any extremist nut job, I believe that the GOP will actually significantly improve with the youth vote.

I voted D: >50%, but I could be wrong (obviously).

Discuss.

[bedstuy]

Where are you getting accurate exit polling broken down by age by the year (18, 19, 20, etc)?

It's also kind of overblown that the youth vote is driven by some ideological and age related factor.  Maybe that was true in 2008, but generally, 9 times out of 10, young people vote the same way their parents vote.

That's a significant and steady advantage to the Democrats in the youth vote.  The youth demographic is far less white than older voters.  Democrats are going to do better among a group that is 56% white than a group that is 75% white.

[/]

I think a big reason that the 18 vote might have gone for Romney is because youth are especially susceptible to wanting to blame their own problems on other people (the main reason that the current administration is disliked). Unfortunately, this means that most of the youth vote in 2016 will have grown up under Obama, indicating that this phenomenon may still be present (hopefully, they'll remember the good ol' Bush days instead).

[Mehmentum]

This is basically a re-hash of a thread in the Election Trends board.

Here's what I said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The article the OP quotes claims that Romney won 18 to 20 year olds in a landslide. If it's true, shouldn't we see at least a hint of that in 2014? 2012's 18-20 year olds were 20-22 in 2014.

In other words, the supposed Romney voting millennials should make up the majority of the 18-24 vote in 2014.  Yet, Democrats do just as well among them nationally as their slightly older counterparts.

[Torie]

The biggest swing to Romney was indeed among young whites. It was just masked by the fact that a higher percentage of younger voters are persons of color.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Romney overwhelmingly won the votes of 18, 19, and 20 year olds

For the billionth time, he did not.

I think the 18-29s may very well vote over 70% Democratic in 2016.

[RR1997]

Romney overwhelmingly won the votes of 18, 19, and 20 year olds

For the billionth time, he did not.

I think the 18-29s may very well vote over 70% Democratic in 2016.

Um yeah he did

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

You're delusional if you think that the youth vote will vote over 70% Democratic. Obama won 60% of the youth vote in 2012, and Obama was a much better candidate for young voters than Clinton is.

To Bedstuy:
White voters are going to be a much larger percentage of the 18-29 voter group than they are in general, since minority voter turnout tends to be lower than white turnout.

Torie is right. Romney made the bigger gains with white voters than he did with any other demographic, it's just that minority voters masked those gains.

Do you guys really believe that Clinton will do better than Obama with the youth vote?

Ohama was a much better fit for young voters than Clinton is. Obama is cool, hip, and in-touch with the youth. Hillary Clinton is like the Democratic version of Mitt Romney. She's really boring and out-of-touch with today's youth.

Also, African-American voter turnout will decrease significantly because Obama's not running.

The new voters in 2016 were born during the years of 1995,1996,1997, and 1998. They're too young to remember the Clinton and Bush presidencies, and they have negative feelings towards Obama because their parents and the media keep on portraying Obama in a negative away. They will also naturally blame their problems on the current administration, and they don't remember the Bush era, so they're unaware that his presidency was worse.

Youth voters and Hillary don't mix together well (as seen in 2008 primaries). People who think that Hillary will perform better than Obama amongst youth voters are delusion, unless you think that Trump will actually be the nominee.

I can't believe that no one voted D:>55% yet. When making this thread, I expected that option to be the one that would receive the most votes, but so far I'm wrong.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Um yeah he did

No he did not.

[DrScholl]

When you make up your own numbers, you just can't be wrong. These are the exit poll numbers from 2012.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/


    18-24: 11%

    60% Obama

    36% Romney

    25-29: 8%

    60% Obama

    38% Romney

[RR1997]

Um yeah he did

No he did not.

Yes he did. Did you even read the article?

To DrScholl: The voters that were between 21-24 years of age voted heavily for Obama (over 70% I believe), but those that were between the ages of 18-20 voted comfortably for Romney (somewhere in the high 50's), so that's why the 18-24 group voted 60% for Obama overall. Why is this so hard to understand?

[Torie]

"I can't believe that no one voted D:>55% yet. When making this thread, I expected that option to be the one that recieved the most votes, but so far I'm wrong."

I just marked that box.

[Bigby]

"I can't believe that no one voted D:>55% yet. When making this thread, I expected that option to be the one that recieved the most votes, but so far I'm wrong."

I just marked that box.

This is Atlas. The Dems here think that anyone who isn't trailer trash or a stereotypical CEO is ultraliberal like them.

[Bismarck]

"I can't believe that no one voted D:>55% yet. When making this thread, I expected that option to be the one that recieved the most votes, but so far I'm wrong."

I just marked that box.

This is Atlas. The Dems here think that anyone who isn't trailer trash or a stereotypical CEO is ultraliberal like them.

This is not just atlas but most of the democratic party and one of the biggest reasons we don't have meaningful political debate in this country anymore.

[Oak Hills]

Um yeah he did

No he did not.

Yes he did. Did you even read the article?

To DrScholl: The voters that were between 21-24 years of age voted heavily for Obama (over 70% I believe), but those that were between the ages of 18-20 voted comfortably for Romney (somewhere in the high 50's), so that's why the 18-24 group voted 60% for Obama overall. Why is this so hard to understand?

Tiny subsamples are the only possible reason for such a big discrepancy.  Why is that so hard for you to understand?

[DrScholl]

Um yeah he did

No he did not.

Yes he did. Did you even read the article?

To DrScholl: The voters that were between 21-24 years of age voted heavily for Obama (over 70% I believe), but those that were between the ages of 18-20 voted comfortably for Romney (somewhere in the high 50's), so that's why the 18-24 group voted 60% for Obama overall. Why is this so hard to understand?

That would be the lowest turnout portion of the group, which means pollsters are less likely to get an entirely accurate sample. It makes little sense for the 18-20 to have voted so much more Republican than 21-24, since it goes against the trend of the overall exit poll by age.

[Thunderbird is the word]

In 2012 I think the younger cohort may have leaned more libertarian/conservative because Ron Paul was dominating the anti-establishment discourse at the time but the current younger generation I think is going to be more influenced by Bernie Sanders then anything else and lean more to the left. I'd expect him to win the youth vote by a considerable margin if he were the nominee.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, turnout among younger voters actually did drop a little bit between 2008 and 2012.

[Suburbia]

I think the youth vote will be lean Democratic, but a Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina can get some considerable support amongst young people. It will be excited for Bernie Sanders, but Hillary Clinton can appeal to some of them.

[ElectionsGuy]

D>55%. Yes, there are more conservative young people now, but I think college makes them more liberal over time.

[Kingpoleon]

52%-43% Biden(best)-Kasich(best)

55%-42% Clinton(med.)-Bush(med.)

59%-39% Biden(best)-Carson(worst)

49%-46% Sanders(worst)-Kasich(best)

Notably, in this last group, I think a President Kasich would then beat a Governor Newsom 50%-45%, or a President Sanders would beat a Senator Cotton 52%-42% in 2020.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

18-29: D>50

But, 18-24: R>40

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This is basically a re-hash of a thread in the Election Trends board.

Here's what I said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The article the OP quotes claims that Romney won 18 to 20 year olds in a landslide. If it's true, shouldn't we see at least a hint of that in 2014? 2012's 18-20 year olds were 20-22 in 2014.

In other words, the supposed Romney voting millennials should make up the majority of the 18-24 vote in 2014.  Yet, Democrats do just as well among them nationally as their slightly older counterparts.

We did see a hint of that in 2014.  Voters 18-24 were slightly more Republican than those 25-29, despite the fact that they included 23 and 24 year olds.  The 2014 23 and 24 year olds were significantly more liberal than 25-29s or, especially, 18-22s.  That was the generation most susceptible to buying into the "hope and change" in '08.  Notice that 21 year-olds in 2012 (23 in 2014) voted 75% for Obama, while he lost the 18-20 vote handily.

[hopper]

This is basically a re-hash of a thread in the Election Trends board.

Here's what I said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The article the OP quotes claims that Romney won 18 to 20 year olds in a landslide. If it's true, shouldn't we see at least a hint of that in 2014? 2012's 18-20 year olds were 20-22 in 2014.

In other words, the supposed Romney voting millennials should make up the majority of the 18-24 vote in 2014.  Yet, Democrats do just as well among them nationally as their slightly older counterparts.

We did see a hint of that in 2014.  Voters 18-24 were slightly more Republican than those 25-29, despite the fact that they included 23 and 24 year olds.  The 2014 23 and 24 year olds were significantly more liberal than 25-29s or, especially, 18-22s.  That was the generation most susceptible to buying into the "hope and change" in '08.  Notice that 21 year-olds in 2012 (23 in 2014) voted 75% for Obama, while he lost the 18-20 vote handily.

I don't find that believable that Romney won the 18-20 year olds unless he overperformed with Hispanics in the 18-20 year old range very handily. He did overperform with Black Men in the 18-29 year old range winning 18% in that group range. I think he did characteristic of a Republican Presidential Candidate with 18-29 year old Black Women winning 4% of their vote.

[skoods]

Almost every 18-20 year old that I know is an absolute moron. So, it makes sense that they'd vote for Romney. I believe the stats.

[VPH]

If Sanders is the nominee, it'll be higher.