Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Talleyrand]

Anyone else see Labor's attack on Mal Brough and the Prime Minister in QT on Thursday?

Unbelievable that this man is the one in charge of "government integrity". What a joke!

The 11th was the 40th anniversary of the Dismissal of Gough Whitlam.

Kind of hard to think now that both Gough and Fraser were both livin just over a year ago. How time flies...

[Lord of the Dome]

Kind of hard to think now that both Gough and Fraser were both livin just over a year ago. How time flies...

If they'd both lived just one more year this would be only the third time ever that eight former Former Prime Ministers were alive at the same time.

[BaconBacon96]

Ex-Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane has jumped from the Liberal Party room to the National Party room. It's fair to say he has taken his opportunity to reenter the ministry. Some speculation that his joining the Nationals could cause a number of the following possibilities

- Allowing the Nationals to take another ministry spot and potentially giving Turnbull the opportunity to remove or stand aside Mal Brough.
- Causing Warren Truss to resign or retire and allow Barnaby Joyce to take the leadership, with Macfarlane as deputy.
- Opening up the potential for other reportedly dissatisfied regional Liberals, particularly Queensland LNP members to shift to the Nationals. Former whip Scott Buchholz was named as a possibility.

There have also been rumours that the state LNP organisation have been lobbying for their MPs to sit in their own party room, as opposed to having them choose to sit in either the Liberal or National party rooms. This would allow the LNP to take the Deputy Prime Ministers position each Coalition government.

[Ebowed]

I know it's old news now but can we talk about that disastrous Malcolm Turnbull interview with Leigh Sales... it was brutal...

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Also, Shorten apologised today for being caught texting while driving. 

[Phony Moderate]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

[Ebowed]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Touche.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

[Lord of the Dome]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

I don't think that the Libs have too much to worry about in the short term as far as their polling is concerned (and yes that includes the election). God knows the public don't want to be greeted one day with the shock of Prime Minister Shorten in all its terrifyingly uninspiring blandness.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

I don't think that the Libs have too much to worry about in the short term as far as their polling is concerned (and yes that includes the election). God knows the public don't want to be greeted one day with the shock of Prime Minister Shorten in all its terrifyingly uninspiring blandness.

I've learned about not making even short-term predictions. Did anyone think in mid 2009 than Rudd would be removed and Labor would almost lose the 2010 election?

Or that after 2013 election that Abbott would be removed for Turnbull of all people after less than two years as PM?

Weird and uncontrollable things happen, I'm actually starting to think that an early election is actually much more likely than I have recently. Everything is now cycling around March/April ie before the Budget.

[BaconBacon96]

Macfarlane's move to the Nationals got rejected by the LNP state executive, even after the local party branch backed it.

[Platypus]

This is the Liberal party genius and saviour?  Yeah....

Well, if the polls are anything to go by...

Well... nine months out from an election (likely) with a tough Budget and internal ructions.

I don't think that the Libs have too much to worry about in the short term as far as their polling is concerned (and yes that includes the election). God knows the public don't want to be greeted one day with the shock of Prime Minister Shorten in all its terrifyingly uninspiring blandness.

I've learned about not making even short-term predictions. Did anyone think in mid 2009 than Rudd would be removed

Yes.

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No

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Maybe?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is their a chance Malcolm Turnbull could be leading the Liberals into the next election? Especially if Abbott can't force through the Carbon Tax repeal in the new parliament.

It seems that for a third time consecutively in Australia a Prime Minister will be traumatically damaged over a botched tax

[Ebowed]

Macfarlane's move to the Nationals got rejected by the LNP state executive, even after the local party branch backed it.

Yep, supposedly in the name of 'unity' and 'stability.'  Ha ha.

Mid year financial outlook reveals a ballooning deficit and the government is thrilled to announce it will be cracking down even more on Centrelink rorting, as opposed to, say, offshore shifting of profits by major companies.  By the time we're done with a Liberal government I fully expect us to have spent more on cracking down on welfare than on actual welfare payments.

Anyone want to take bets on when the NBN has to be sold at a loss?

[BaconBacon96]

Ayy lmao.

[Lord of the Dome]

I'll second that

[Njall]

Thoughts anyone?  Local media, especially print media, seems to be making a fairly big deal about this, at least from what I can find while visiting my Grandad on the Sunshine Coast.

[Knives]

God I hate the Australian media, rather than focusing on how horrific raising the GST would be all they want to do is focus on Bill's awkward trip to the shops. The media's mindset is basically "let's not scrutinise Turnbull but spend a day talking about lettuce" and it's ing ridic.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Philip Ruddock to retire

Interesting movements today.

[Knives]

:/ Turnbull is planning on outsourcing Medicare - this is worse than Abbott's copayment.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So much chaos in the Government right now

- Resignations, retirements, sackings, tax reform policy paralysis ....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol ... The Deputy Chief Minister of the NT has resigned. This really needs to end.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fairfax Ipsos

TPP
LNP: 52% (-4)
ALP: 48% (+4)

Primaries
LNP: 44% (-4)
ALP: 32% (+3)
GRN: 15% (+2)

Approval
Turnbull: 62% (-7)
Shorten: 30% (+1)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 24% (+8)
Shorten: 55% (-2)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 64% (-5)
Shorten: 19% (+1)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol ... The Deputy Chief Minister of the NT has resigned. This really needs to end.

Lmao

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Effort-post on election timing speculation...


There is increasing chatter about an early double-dissolution election. There is no appetite in the electorate for this, ESPECIALLY from Coalition voters. Sources say that at least 10 seats would be lost on that basis alone (I think that's a little hysterical, but it certainly wouldn't aid good will).

There are basically three windows for the election this year.

- Running to term (or near-abouts)
20, 27 August or 3 September - issues for this, the campaign would be run during the Olympics which would irritate people. Plus 3 September is the latest date full stop as the next weekend would go past the anniversary of the 2013 election and that's only usually done when a PM is trying to delay the inevitable.

- DD elections - the issue for these options is the Budget and it's traditional that elections don't run near Easter (families traveling) or into winter (not sure why that one... but there you go).
He's pretty much missed the window for a pre-Easter election, which was calling an election for the first or second weekend in March before Parliament returned on Feb 2. The other option would be to have the campaign have Easter in the middle and call it for the 9th of April. That would give the incoming Government 4 weeks to get the Budget finalised. But of course, remembering that the Budget can be handed down as late as August. But the Labor attack will be that they're trying to avoid the Budget and it would be potent.

The next option is calling the election the day after the Budget is handed down... 11 May for sometime in July. a) this would be a LONG campaign b) this would be a very strange set of events. Suggesting that the Budget is the manifesto and will only enact it if re-elected... the issue is it would likely span the end of financial year and require cross-party support for an interim funding Bill. Unlikely that supply would be blocked, but that would need to happen or at least be telegraphed well in advance.

The other option would be to call the election at the end of June for 5 August... yes it's the first day of the Olympics... but it would the first possible date for a regular election. But it would require the Government handing down a Budget and assuming no further deterioration in the Government and PM's standing between down and 6 months time... that's a courageous move.


So unless he calls this weekend and it's a longer-than-usual campaign, since a 33-day campaign would  have election day on 26 March (Easter Saturday, so that's a no) ...

I think his windows are...

Call the election on 27 Feb or 4 March for 2 or 9 April - giving enough time pre-Budget. Doing it between then and May will mean a delayed Budget and would look terrible.

Call the election on 25 June or 2 July for 5 August.

Or the very strange option of calling on 11 May for 2/9/16 July. Or, just waiting for the end of August/early September and hope everything works out in the interim?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

TPP
LNP: 50% (-3)
ALP: 50% (+3)

Primaries
LNP: 43% (-3)
ALP: 35% (+1)
GRN: 12% (+1)

Approval
Turnbull: 48% (-5)
Shorten: 28% (+3)

Disapproval
Turnbull: 38% (+7)
Shorten: 57% (-3)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 55% (-4)
Shorten: 21 (+1)