Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the face of our fifth Prime Minister in just over 5 years... let's start afresh.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

To clarify

Kevin Rudd - November 2007 - June 2010
Julia Gillard - June 2010 - June 2013
Kevin Rudd - June - September 2013
Tony Abbott - September 2013 - September 2015
Malcolm Turnbull - September 2015 -

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm curious to see polling now.

There will be a sugar-hit. I would expect a rapid tightening.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the face of our fifth Prime Minister in just over 5 years... let's start afresh.

Yeah the old one was almost 400 posts about Dave's preferred 2000 limited, but the name of this one should be 2.0 or something, not 2015-discussion. I doubt we will have 2000 posts in the rest of the year, although you never know with the way things are going

Good idea, but it was meant to read as 2015- like 2015-to ?

But it didn't look like it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As I said in the other thread.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like Turnbull will be sworn in today, so Abbott was PM for 1 year, 362 days- the shortest tenure since Billy McMahon (1971-1972).

Ironically, he ended up being the 4th longest serving leader of the Liberal Party, with almost 6 years at the helm. He was only behind Menzies, Howard, and Fraser.

...Of course I suspect Turnbull will be the longest serving PM since Howard, and probably last at least the rest of the decade.

Put it this way. I think Turnbull will need to change from his last, pretty catastrophic reign as leader. Let's see how he goes for the first full day before these declarations.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, he's officially spoken.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Did he actually make any mention of Turnbull?

Nope. Clearly he thinks the only reason he's no longer PM is the media happily reporting leaks.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull is not doing well in QT.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought Turnbull spoke with more enthusiasm and vigor than Abbott had in any recent QT.

It's the MPs on his benches who need to get in line.

I thought he was waffling and his answer on SSM was ABOMINABLE.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6451-australia-better-pm-turnbull-shorten-september-15-2015-201509150557

Better PM:

Malcolm: 70
Bill: 24

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ffs

It's a sweet sugar hit... Let's calm down.

This isn't about next week or next month, it's about next year (apparently)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First poll of the Turnbull era has a bounce, albeit a relatively muted one.

LNP - 50% (+3)
ALP - 50% (-3)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is the chance Shorty gets routed?

Very unlikely given the new rules.

Nor should we.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is the chance Shorty gets routed?

Very unlikely given the new rules.

Nor should we.

Shorten's problem is his speech ability and the fact that he was intrinsic in toppling 2 PMs. Aside from that he's got some pretty good ideas and having met the guy he's quite nice. I think he'd make a surprisingly good PM and is quite underrated.

Absolutely - I think there's is as much opportunity for Shorten with this elevation as there are complications.

I think the way Labor are handling Turnbull is completely sensible. The thing that the party room doesn't understand is that people want Turnbull to do different thing and pursue a more moderate platform ... Not be a more effective spokesperson for the same policies. The best arguments against Turnbull are about his authenticity and credibility.

Mark my words, Turnbull will be a challenge but he's not the saviour on a white charger he's being made out to be. He's made some big compromises (including on some core issues) and pissed off the right-wing of his party for even doing this. Include the clear expectations of him from the left and the centre and he's got a hell of a juggling act - especially with a tougher economic environment.

Remember what Keating said to Rudd about Turnbull "he's brilliant, he's fearless, but he's got no judgement"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Aaaaaand we get out first leak against the new PM.

Turnbull apparently not that keen on promoting women.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder how a 'Conservative Party' led by Cory f**king Bernardi would do.

My spies suggest a move to Family First is more likely than creating his own party.

Yup.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Turnbull to announce the new Ministry at 3pm, so in about 50 mins.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rumours the reshuffle is going to be a lot more significant than expected.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He referred to Turnbull as 'Mr Turnbull' and to Abbott as 'Prime Minister Abbott' lol.

He sounded like a f***ing child.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Andrews also confirmed that he'll be recontesting his seat at the next election.

Out of sheer spite

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It pains me to say, outside of Dutton remaining (I think the difference being Hockey and Andrews campaigned for their jobs, Dutton offered to go), this is a pretty good Ministry. The thing to remember, this is the Turnbull Cabinet. So his rhetoric about the Cabinet being the ones to consult and change on policy?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He referred to Turnbull as 'Mr Turnbull' and to Abbott as 'Prime Minister Abbott' lol.

Why Turnbull doesn't simply kick him out of the caucus?

Because that would be a needlessly antagonistic move in a party already dealing with internal infighting.

And by not wanting him anywhere except the backbench he's made it very clear.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There were always two things to look for if Abbott was going to go for an early election, a reshuffle and Senate voting reforms.

While I think March is more likely than November this year... If you start to see any significant policy shifts in the next month or so... it'll be shaping up for sooner, rather than later.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is Turnbull really going to pass Senate reform? Ugh. At least the Republic remains a pipe dream. How soon can we get Abbott back?

Do you really enjoy being wrong?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The NSW ALP continues to make a strong recovery.


TPP
Coalition- 56% (+2)
Labor- 44% (-2)

Primary
Coalition- 47% (+1)
Labor- 33% (-1)
Greens- 11% (+1)
Otherd- 9% (-1)

Mike Baird Favorability
Approval- 63% (+6)
Disapproval- 23% (-6)

Luke Foley Favorability
Approval- 35% (-3)
Disapproval- 37% (0)

Preferred Premier
Baird- 57% (+3)
Foley- 19% (-8)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/25/newspoll-56-44-to-coalition-in-nsw-3/

Foley needs to go jfc. NSW Labor is such a damaged brand.

The problem is, parties are too determined to win government back straight away (understandable) but realise that, especially in NSW Labor's case, they need to totally knock-down and rebuild. But instead, they're not interested in rebuilding, which is why Baird will be untouchable for a long time to come. There was no mea culpa, no public acknowledgement that Labor had lost faith with the public. That was step #1.