Australia General Discussion 2.0

[morgieb]

What is the chance Shorty gets routed?

Very unlikely given the new rules.

[morgieb]

I wonder how a 'Conservative Party' led by Cory f**king Bernardi would do.

My spies suggest a move to Family First is more likely than creating his own party.

[morgieb]

Talleyrand wtf is going on?

[morgieb]

The NSW ALP continues to make a strong recovery.


TPP
Coalition- 56% (+2)
Labor- 44% (-2)

Primary
Coalition- 47% (+1)
Labor- 33% (-1)
Greens- 11% (+1)
Otherd- 9% (-1)

Mike Baird Favorability
Approval- 63% (+6)
Disapproval- 23% (-6)

Luke Foley Favorability
Approval- 35% (-3)
Disapproval- 37% (0)

Preferred Premier
Baird- 57% (+3)
Foley- 19% (-8)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/25/newspoll-56-44-to-coalition-in-nsw-3/

Foley needs to go jfc. NSW Labor is such a damaged brand.

I really can't see anyone doing any better. The issue is the NSW Labor brand and also Baird being uncontroversial and moderate.

Realistically Labor won't win until 2023 at the earliest.

[morgieb]

Polnut, why do people hate Bill Shorten so much?

I wouldn't say hate is the right word, but AFAIK he's seen as a bland union hack and possibly a bit weak.

[morgieb]

ALP leaders seem to be either incredibly high energy or laughably low energy. In the modern era you've had Whitlam Hawke, Keating, Rudd and Latham but you've also had Crean, Hayden and Shorten.

Yes, very good point. Meanwhile I can't remember the last Liberal leader that could be considered high-energy - Snedden maybe?

[morgieb]

Australian politics is such a joke atm.

Not as much as the US but like jesus christ these people are ridic.

Indeed, it seems likely that the Budget will be moved forward a week (all of the function spaces in P'House are booked up for 3 May... in a week when Parliament isn't supposed to be sitting... hmmm?) to enable the Budget and reply to happen, then announce the next weekend for a (sigh) 8 week campaign.

I'm not sure if it's just me, but running on the back of the budget seems a really risky strategy for mine. Especially given that I suspect it'll be a fairly aggressive budget.

[morgieb]

A new poll conducted for News Corp. has Dick Smith leading Bronwyn Bishop by 33 points on the primary vote in Mackellar. Not buying it, but LOL.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/would-you-vote-for-dick-smith-poll-shows-hed-easily-take-bronwyn-bishops-seat/news-story/6e245f9320580e8b53125941557bd33e

Not that it matters as she'll most likely lose preselection anyway.

[morgieb]

I have a question for everyone.

In, which Labor member do you think is the closest analogue we have to Bernie Sanders? This includes policy, personality, everything.

When you take background/personality into account? Honestly can't think of a good one in the Labour party. Closest in politics overall might be Bob Brown, but he's obviously retired and was a Green.

[morgieb]

Great speech.

You're Jewish. You do realise what "Final Solution" is a reference to, no?

[morgieb]

Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?

No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.

LOL, this turned out to be a brilliant call.