MI-01: Benishek not seeking reelection.

[JerryArkansas]

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Hm, I'm guessing this leans/tilts R? Where is the population centred - is it a bunch of white small towns?

[Torie]

Hm, I'm guessing this leans/tilts R? Where is the population centred - is it a bunch of white small towns?

It's population is not centered anywhere, it is a bunch of small white towns, with the most significant but still small population nodes being the Traverse City area that leans Pub and a vacation spot, and Marquette Dem on the UP (colleges and mining I think). It has a Pub PVI of 4, but it is volatile, with a rivalry between the upper peninsula, and the balance. If not from the UP, a candidate is facing a headwind. And the two Dem candidates being mentioned, are not from the UP. In some ways it is like MN-07. It's quirky. Michael Barone described it as part of the "Finn belt" (I guess because the area has more than it share of Finns who moved there to be miners back when), which belt includes MI-01, WI-07 and MN-08. In 2010, all three CD's flipped to the Pubs, although MN-08 flipped back to the Dems in 2012.

[Maxwell]

We'll see how this goes, but I think this makes the seat less vulnerable to Democrats. Benishek has been beyond a weak incumbent. We'll see how it works out, though.

[Figueira]

The Upper Peninsula is actually a slight minority of this district's population.

Anyway, this strikes me as Tilt R, unless there's something special about it I don't know.

[Torie]

The Pub PVI of 4% (4.6% actually), is an average of a 3% Pub PVI in 2008, and a 6% Pub PVI in 2012. The CD trended 3 points to the Pubs in 2012.  

[smoltchanov]

If Casperson is a Republican candidate - Leans R. If not - Tossup/Tilt R. In normal year. But yes, surprises in district like this happens...

[Nyvin]

This district used to be a swing seat until redistricting,  or the Obama years...one of the two.

[Brittain33]

The Pub PVI of 4% (4.6% actually), is an average of a 3% Pub PVI in 2008, and a 6% Pub PVI in 2012. The CD trended 3 points to the Pubs in 2012.  

MI's PVIs in 2008 were as wacky as Illinois's, though. I bet that 3 percent trend is par for the course or even light for Michigan over that time period.

That said, this is a district which wouldn't surprise me if it didn't go back to Dems.

[Miles]

The district also voted for Land 49/47.

[Bojack Horseman]

The UP is a blue collar area with Marquette as an anchor city that usually goes solid blue for the right candidate. When 2010 rolled around, the Republicans drew it to include more of the northern lower peninsula, which is far more conservative. Both Levin and Stabenow won every county in the UP several times.

[Torie]

The Pub PVI of 4% (4.6% actually), is an average of a 3% Pub PVI in 2008, and a 6% Pub PVI in 2012. The CD trended 3 points to the Pubs in 2012.  

MI's PVIs in 2008 were as wacky as Illinois's, though. I bet that 3 percent trend is par for the course or even light for Michigan over that time period.

That said, this is a district which wouldn't surprise me if it didn't go back to Dems.

A MI favorite son effect for Mittens?  The trend for the state was about 1.3% to the Pubs. Adjacent WI-07 also trended pretty heavily to the Pubs - about 4 points.

Daily Kos however has an interesting article about how Obama 2012 performed versus normal Dem performance in non presidential races averaging election results from 2006. If you scroll down to Michigan, you will see that Obama did run particularly poorly in the UP versus normal non Presidential Dem performance. The author even explicitly notes this in his commentary.

[Brittain33]

A MI favorite son effect for Mittens?  The trend for the state was about 1.3% to the Pubs.

I was thinking on the other side of the equation—McCain completely pulled out of Michigan before Election Day, Palin famously contradicted him which highlighted they'd pulled out, and Obama won a whole bunch of districts (or at least overperformed) which didn't reflect how they vote downballot. 2012 was more of a normal election in Michigan as it was in Illinois.

[Nyvin]

Obama won Michigan by 16.47% in 2008....if 2008 is considered the "norm" then Republicans would be really screwed not just in Michigan but pretty much everywhere.

2008 was abnormally good for Democrats, particularly in the Midwest area.   2012 would be returning to what would be a norm....for Obama at least.

[Miles]

Daily Kos however has an interesting article about how Obama 2012 performed versus normal Dem performance in non presidential races averaging election results from 2006. If you scroll down to Michigan, you will see that Obama did run particularly poorly in the UP versus normal non Presidential Dem performance. The author even explicitly notes this in his commentary.

Also, basically the entire district swung against Stabenow too, even though she improved overall:

[Horus]

Strong R, but not solid.

[Republican Michigander]

MI-01 is very independent, but moving away from national democrats. The UP outside of Mackinac and Chippewa Counties along I-75 is ancestrally supportive of socially conservative democrats but has moved away from them gradually since 2000. Obama won in 08 because McCain was an idiot when it came to Michigan and publicly quit (and Michigan hates wimps who quit).

Today, the only remaining strong democrat counties in the UP are Marquette (Northern Michigan University, unions) and Gogebic County (Ironwood - very pro-union and near Superior, Wisconsin). Alger County usually votes dem still but didn't for Obama in 2012.

In the Northern Lower Peninsula, the dem areas are Traverse City, although Grand Traverse County votes Republican as the suburbs outvote the city. The democrats there are affluent liberals from Ann Arbor, Chicago, and places like that compared to the UP. Alpena County and Presque Isle Counties are historically democrat, but similar to the UP types. Leelanau County and Benzie County historically lean R, but can go either way and are treading D. I don't know exact reasons, but I think due to the same reason as Traverse City. Manistee County is democrat leaning due to unions.

Alpena and Presque Isle Counties are very key swing areas that are overlooked. The other three to watch are Delta, Menominee, and Schoolcraft Counties.

The Central-West portion of the Lower Peninsula is strongly Republican. Antrim, Emmet, and Otsego Counties. Energy is big in Otsego County, and there's a lot of downstate money along with middle class retirees in those areas. 

The UP tends to vote as a bloc and vote for their own. That leaves the dems at a disadvantage as Lon Johnson is a Downriver carpetbagger from Wayne County, and Jerry Cannon is a "troll" from Kalkaska. A "Troll" lives below the bridge.

Benishek wasn't a strong candidate, but he was a yooper and from a key swing area in Iron County (historically democrat). Tom Casperson would be the strongest candidate (Yooper, won a democrat district, from Delta County, fiscal moderate) for the district.

Bart Stupak was and is the ideal democrat for this district.  He's a yooper, Socially moderate but conservative on life and (mostly) center-right on 2nd Amendment issues. I think he would have survived 2010.

I'd call this lean R unless someone like Scott Dianda, or John Kivela take a run, unless Stupak wants his job back.