NH-WBUR: Trump narrowly leads Carson; Fiorina in 3rd (LV)

[Brittain33]

Sep. 12-14, n = 404, MOE = 4.9%

Trump 22%
Carson 18%

Fiorina 11%
Jeb Bush 9%
John Kasich 9%

Ted Cruz 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Chris Christie 2%
Marco Rubio 2%
Scott Walker 1% (ouch)
Mike Huckabee 1%
Lindsey Graham 0.9%

Bobby Jindal 0.4%
Rick Santorum 0.3%
George Pataki 0.2%
Jim Gilmore 0%

Undecided/Don't Know/Other 14%

http://www.wbur.org/2015/09/16/wbur-poll-new-hampshire-september

[weixiaobao]

Scott Walker never really attempt New Hampshire anyhow.

Hmm, but this is the lowest I have seen Trump in New Hampshire as of late and the highest for Carson too.  Seemed really weird.  New Hampshire isn't a state for Carson to surge that much.

[Zanas]

Scott Walker never really attempt New Hampshire anyhow.

Hmm, but this is the lowest I have seen Trump in New Hampshire as of late and the highest for Carson too.  Seemed really weird.  New Hampshire isn't a state for Carson to surge that much.

I guess Rep voters are slowly coalescing around Carson as "the only one who can stop Trump at this point". It's a trend in other polls, state-wide or national.

[weixiaobao]

Scott Walker never really attempt New Hampshire anyhow.

Hmm, but this is the lowest I have seen Trump in New Hampshire as of late and the highest for Carson too.  Seemed really weird.  New Hampshire isn't a state for Carson to surge that much.

I guess Rep voters are slowly coalescing around Carson as "the only one who can stop Trump at this point". It's a trend in other polls, state-wide or national.

I don't think so.  Carson had broad appeal.  But most of his supporters are cross over between him, Trump, and Cruz (plus other religious base).  Many Trump supporters put Carson as second choice and vice versa. 

The anti Trump are smaller in number now (because you have to count the 1st and 2nd choice of Trump in polls) and they revolve around people like Kasich, Fiorina, Rubio, and Bush (and Paul which is a different faction altogether).

I just think that people genuinely think Carson is better than Trump at the moment.  But if Carson is to fall, a lot of those voters are going to Trump and much smaller # would go to a strongly anti Trump candidates.

[Skye]

Seems a bit too low for Trump (can't believe what I just said).

[Mr. Morden]

Top three candidates in the most recent polls in the four early primary states:

Iowa (CBS/YouGov):
1) Trump
2) Carson
3) Cruz

New Hampshire (WBUR):
1) Trump
2) Carson
3) Fiorina

South Carolina (CBS/YougGov):
1) Trump
2) Carson
3) Cruz

Nevada (Silver Bullet LLC):
1) Trump
2) Fiorina
3) Rubio

So we have…
Trump: no experience in public office
Carson: no experience in public office
Fiorina: no experience in public office
Cruz: first term Senator
Rubio: first term Senator

[Why]

Trump's figures in recent polls have been inconsistent and ranged from 28 to 40%, so this is lower than them. However there has been a clear trend towards Carson in recent New Hampshire and other polls. If he continues to improve he will start to take a lot of votes from Trump, perhaps the last few polls have showed signs of this starting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go Carly Florina, Clinton will match up very well against her.

[eric82oslo]

Go Carly Florina, Clinton will match up very well against her.

In fact Hillary will seem like the warmest person in the world next to Fiorina's cold and surgical demeanor. This morning on Morning Joe was actually the first time I've ever seen Carly smiling even once. Probably to counterpunch her Fox' (Krauthammer, O'Reilley etc.) and other critics who heavily criticised her for her air of stealth/anger/no lightheartedness in last night's debate.

[Brittain33]

Go Carly Florina, Clinton will match up very well against her.

In fact Hillary will seem like the warmest person in the world next to Fiorina's cold and surgical demeanor. This morning on Morning Joe was actually the first time I've ever seen Carly smiling even once. Probably to counterpunch her Fox' (Krauthammer, O'Reilley etc.) and other critics who heavily criticised her for her air of stealth/anger/no lightheartedness in last night's debate.

This is completely a Republican cliché, but... Margaret Thatcher was never warm. Neither Clinton nor Fiorina is a Margaret Thatcher, but there is space for a personality of reserved confidence as long as it's not actually off-putting.

[HillOfANight]

Hillary is so bubbly compared to Carly I was scared she was drunk with her interview with Wolf Blitzer the other day.

[/]

Nothing surprising, but Trump isn't leading by that much anymore and Walker's fall from grace is hilarious.

I wonder what it's like post-debate, Fiorina might even be in the lead...

[ElectionsGuy]

Actually whats more surprising than Walker is Rubio. 2%?? Seriously?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

So we have…
Trump: no experience in public office
Carson: no experience in public office
Fiorina: no experience in public office
Cruz: first term Senator
Rubio: first term Senator

which, i mean, … it can be debated if this is actually a bad thing, but it makes the constant drone of "but obama is so inexperienced :V" from four years ago look hilarious in retrospect.