2016 Republican Nomination Poll - September 2015 (Post-debate)

[Senator Cris]

Who will win?

[Torie]

I have zero idea. Thanks.

[Maxwell]

I'm still going to vote for Ted Cruz. The media continues to scoff at him in the same way they used to scoff at Trump, and it's exactly that attitude that I think will propel Cruz to victory in the end.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For the first time, I am declining to vote, because I don't have the faintest idea.

[The Other Castro]

With Bush proving again that he is a horrible candidate, and Kasich disappointing, Rubio is in as good a position as anyone to soak up enough support to win.

[mencken]

Rubio seems like the most plausible end result, the trouble is I cannot fathom the sequence of events that leads to such an outcome. Is he just going to use the Bill Clinton strategy of getting a series of expectations-beating places and shows until he becomes the consensus pick?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm thinking Cruz, then trump, then Rubio. I see no conceivable paths for the others at this stage.

[Why]

Rubio

[Consciously Unconscious]

I am voting Rubio for the first time in one of these polls

[California8429]

Fiorina

Only one who can unite establishment with the anti-establishment, get the secure backing of business oriented republicans while throwing red meat and charisma to the tea party and so cons and also making it clear to moderates she is no crazy.

She has literally defied the odds of the 5 ring circus of the GOP faction war

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florina

[Pyro]

If Marco Rubio keeps up the energy he had in the debate, I can see him being the nominee.

[Crumpets]

Results from September 1st:

Trump 39.8%
Bush 17.2%
Rubio 16.1%
Kasich 12.9%
Cruz 6.5%
Carson 1.1%
Christie 1.1%
Fiorina 1.1%
Graham 1.1%
Paul 1.1%
Walker 1.1%
Other 1.1%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't know. Voting Trump until I see the polls next week.

[ShadowRocket]

I voted Kasich. Granted, his performance was lackluster overall last night, but I still think he is the likeliest establishment alternative to Bush and has a good shot at NH.

However, if he continues to put in good performances like last night, I think Christie could still have a shot.

[ElectionsGuy]

I have zero idea. Thanks.

Yes. The debate didn't clarify anything in the candidates' standing.

[Vern]

Toss up between Carly and Rubio

[GLPman]

I am inclined to vote Rubio, too, as I think the establishment support will shift his way. However, as others have mentioned, I do not know the sequence of primaries and caucuses that could lead to such a result. I still have not voted yet. I'm going to wait a while longer before doing so.

[Higgs]

Bush or Rubio

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's interesting that Carson even throughout his surge has not received a single vote in any of the polls Cris has done.

[MATTROSE94]

The Donald.

[Bigby]

Rubio. I wish I could change my primary vote now.

[Cryptic]

Voted Rubio, but honestly have no clue.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Rubio or Fiorina.

[Mehmentum]

I really don't know, but I'd like to put down my thoughts.

Trump:
He'll obviously still be leading in the polls after this debate.  It seems like he has about a third to a quarter of the party in his corner, with another third dead set against him.  The rest are generally favorable towards him, but might have candidates they like more.  That leaves him a lot of room to gather a majority, but also leaves room for the Establishment to find a candidate that can win those ambivalent toward him.

Carson:
If necessary, the Establishment will settle for Carson.  His general demeanor is less offensive to certain demographics, he's more in lockstep with GOP othodoxy, and the country would be much more likely to survive a Carson presidency than a Trump presidency.  

Carson in many ways is a great contrast to Trump.  While Trump is so load and obnoxious it can be surprising that people support him, Carson is so calm and sedate that it can be surprising that people support him.  

Fiorina:
It also seems like they're trying to boost Fiorina.  The media has certainly has been hyping her up.  Its pretty obvious why; she's a loud, obnoxious businesswoman.  She's a lot like Trump, but with positions that fit within the GOP orthodoxy.  I bet there are some who are hoping she can siphon away some Trump supporters.

Rubio:
Out of all the rank and file establishment candidates, Rubio is by far the strongest.  His main problem is that while practically nobody in the party dislikes him, very few are passionate about him.  Its not really his fault, its just that this year the Republicans want to fall in love, not fall in line.

The other obstacle to Rubio's campaign is that there's just too many candidates to compete with.  With Walker, Bush, Kasich, Christie, and Fiorina all competing with him, it might be difficult for Rubio to break out.

Cruz:
Cruz is basically the Establishment's last resort.  They hate Cruz, but they hate Trump.  If Carson fails, then the Establishment needs a new  conservative anti-Trump candidate, and Cruz fits the bill.  He'd be easy to boost up, Cruz is a good debater and perfectly fits the anti-establishment mold that is so popular.