French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Zanas]

And a poll for Île-de-France, the region around Paris :
Sondage OpinionWay pour Valeurs Actuelles :
1er tour
UD : 35 %
PS : 22 %
FN : 21 %
EELV : 7 %
FDG : 7 %
DLF : 5 %
LO : 2 %
UPR : 1 %

2nd tour
UD : 42 %
PS : 35 %
FN : 23 %

Bear in mind that OpinionWay has always been consistently the most right-wing (i.e UMP) leaning pollster, and you can probably transfer a couple of points from the UD (union de la droite) result to the PS, which in the end, doesn't really matter.

edit : and another poll for the same region, which seems in return a bit too harsh on the right in the runoff :
Autre sondage : Ifop/Fiducial

1er tour :
UD : 32
PS-PRG-UDE-MRC-MdP : 25
FN : 18,5
EELV : 9
FG : 7,5
DLF : 6

Autres : 2


2nd tour :
UD : 39
UG : 38
FN : 23

Reality should be in between these two.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I know it's probably a bit grim to start talking about these elections now, but how big an impat do you think the latest horrors will have?

[Umengus]

I know it's probably a bit grim to start talking about these elections now, but how big an impat do you think the latest horrors will have?

Difficult to know of course.

In January, attacks shocked lots of people and the first thing was to unite against terrorism. Holland and Valls benefited  in the polls (+- 10-15 %). it's important to note despite this, Hollande was again very unpopular at this time 30-35 % fav).

But now the first feeling is rage. Rage against terrorists of course but too against government, unfit to protect citizens. So I'm not sure that it will effect his unpopularity (maybe amongst left voters).

Anyway, left will lose next regionals elections and FN will be consolidated.

[Umengus]

I know it's probably a bit grim to start talking about these elections now, but how big an impat do you think the latest horrors will have?

Difficult to know of course.

In January, attacks shocked lots of people and the first thing was to unite against terrorism. Holland and Valls benefited  in the polls (+- 10-15 %). it's important to note despite this, Hollande was again very unpopular at this time 30-35 % fav).

But now the first feeling is rage. Rage against terrorists of course but too against government, unfit to protect citizens. So I'm not sure that it will effect his unpopularity (maybe amongst left voters).

Anyway, left will lose next regionals elections and FN will be consolidated.

maybe I'm wrong: 73 % (25 % very, 48 % rather) approve the way Hollande faced the attacks. (odoxa poll).

But the first feeling is rage (but not against Hollande or valls...) 57%, sadness 40 %, solidarity 31 %.

Unlike january, there is no "union nationale", the right to be very angry.

[swl]

Given the context, there is no real campaign at the national level, and if there is a campaign at the local level, I am not sure many are interested... I think we cant rule out a very low turnout.

[Crumpets]

I know it's probably a bit grim to start talking about these elections now, but how big an impat do you think the latest horrors will have?

When the FN have a good year that isn't an extremely low-turnout scenario, where do most of their votes come from? Would it be possible that the UD has a bad year from losing their right flank allowing some PS candidates to hold on?

[Umengus]

Given the context, there is no real campaign at the national level, and if there is a campaign at the local level, I am not sure many are interested... I think we cant rule out a very low turnout.

I think that the turn out will be better that predicted.

[Umengus]

first polls since 11/13

Harris poll (not the best pollster so far...)

FN: 27 %
PS-PRG: 26 %
LR-modem: 25 %
EELV (greens): 7 %
FG: 5 %
Dupont-Aignan: 5 %

Opinion way

FN: 30 %
LR-modem: 28 %
PS: 22 %
EELV: 9 %
FG: 4 %
Dupont-Aignan: 4 %





 

[Umengus]

Paca poll (done before the attacks)

Opinionway

Marion: 37 %
Estrosi : 31 %
PS: 18 %
EELV/FG: 8 %

Second turn:

Marion: 38 %
Estrosi: 35 %
PS,...: 27 %

or

Estrosi: 52 %
Marion: 48 %

or

Ps,...: 43 %
Marion: 57 %

[FredLindq]

When and why did Modem allied itslef with LR?!

[Umengus]

When and why did Modem allied itslef with LR?!

for last local élections in 2014 and because Hollande and PS are very unpopular. The alliance with LR is especially an alliance with Juppe, not Sarkozy.

If Juppe is the right candidate in 2012, Bayrou will not candidate.

[Umengus]

BVA POLL

Popularity

Hollande

fav: 33 % (+8)
unfav: 65 % (-10)

Valls

fav: 40 % (+3)
unfav: 58 %

So no surprise, Hollande and Valls are at their "post-charlie hebdo" level. Not enough to win elections IMO...

[FredLindq]

So if it is Sarkozy the alliance will break?!

[MaxQue]

So if it is Sarkozy the alliance will break?!

If Sarkozy is the candidate, Bayrou will most likely run in the next presidential election, yes. Also, it's not an alliance, just a deal for regional elections (for now).

[Umengus]

IFOP poll

Hollande

approve: 27 %(+7%) (29 % after charlie hebdo attacks)
disapprove: 73 % (-6%)

Valls

approve: 39 % (+3)
disapprove: 60% ((-3)

that confirms the bva poll.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

11/19-21

PACA

Marion: 40 % (+3 % compared to the last ipsos poll taken 11/10-13)
Estrosi: 30% (-2)
Castagner: 16 % (=)
EELV-FG: 8 % (=)

Marion: 41 % (+3)
Estrosi: 34 % (-2 )
left: 25 % (-1)

[Umengus]

BVA poll

Paca

MArion 42 % (+6)
Estrosi: 28 % (-4)
PS: 16 %

runoff:

Marion: 43 % (+6)
Estrosi: 32 % (-4)
PS: 25 % (-2)

Nord:

Marine: 42 %
Bertrand: 24 %
PS: 17 %

runoff:

Marine 44 %
Bertrand: 30 %
PS: 26 %

Bourgogne-franche comté

UMP: 27 % (-4)
FN: 32 % (+6)
PS: 20 % (+1)

runoff:

UMP: 35 % (-1)
FN: 35 % (+4)
PS: ?

Normandy

UMP: 31 % (-1)
FN: 30 %(+3)
PS: 21 % (-2)

runoff:

UMP: 33 %
FN: 33 %
PS: 34 %

Auvergne-rhone alpes

UMP: 32 %(-3)
FN: 27 % (+5,5)
PS: ?

runoff

UMP: 36 % (-4)
FN: 28 % (+5)
PS: 36 % (-1)

Pays de la loire

runoff:

UMP: 42 % (-3)
FN: 24 % (+6)
PS: 34 % (-2)

Centre

runoff:

UMP: 39 % (-1)
FN: 31 % (+4)
PS: 30 % (-3)

Alsace-champagne-ardennes

runoff:

UMP: 39 %
FN (philippot): 35 %
ps: 26 %

Ile de France

Pécresse: 33 %
ps: 23 %
FN: 22 %

runofff:

Pécresse: 41 %
ps: 36 %
fn: 23 %

Bourgogne:

PS (le drian, defense minister): 29 % (-3)
ump: 29 % (-1)
fn: 22 % (+5)

runoff:

PS: 42 % (-4)
ump: 35 % (-1)
fn: 23 % (+5)

Aquitaine-limousin-Poitou

ps: 26 % (-10)
ump: 32 % (+2)
fn: ?

ps: 39 % (-7)
ump: 37 %
fn: ?







 

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

Paca

Marion: 39 %
Estrosi: 29 %
PS: 18 %

runoff:

MArion: 39 %
Estrosi: 34 %
PS: 27 %

[Zinneke]

Ifop poll

Paca

Marion: 39 %
Estrosi: 29 %
PS: 18 %

runoff:

MArion: 39 %
Estrosi: 34 %
PS: 27 %

Edit : sorry misreadd

[big bad fab]

Guys, I'm back in French, en français dans le texte:
https://sondages2017.wordpress.com/

[Tender Branson]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

[big bad fab]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

13 ugly regions.

FN ahead and quite sure to win in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (Marine Le Pen) and in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen).
FN threatening the right in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne (Florian Philippot) and both the right and the left in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (Sophie Montel).
FN up but still behind the left in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Louis Aliot).
FN up but still behind the left and the right in Normandie (Nicolas Bay).

[Umengus]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

13 ugly regions.

FN ahead and quite sure to win in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (Marine Le Pen) and in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen).
FN threatening the right in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne (Florian Philippot) and both the right and the left in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (Sophie Montel).
FN up but still behind the left in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Louis Aliot).
FN up but still behind the left and the right in Normandie (Nicolas Bay).

I think that ps will retire in NPDCP and PACA so I'm not sure that Marine and Marion will win...

[Umengus]

Pease correct me if I'm wrong, but France now only has 13 regions left due to some reform and the FN is projected to win 2 of them and leading in 2-3 others ?

13 ugly regions.

FN ahead and quite sure to win in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (Marine Le Pen) and in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen).
FN threatening the right in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne (Florian Philippot) and both the right and the left in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (Sophie Montel).
FN up but still behind the left in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Louis Aliot).
FN up but still behind the left and the right in Normandie (Nicolas Bay).

I think that ps will retire in NPDCP and PACA so I'm not sure that Marine and Marion will win...

NPDCP poll

Opinionway

Marine: 39 %
Bertrand: 24 %
Saintignon: 20 %
EELV-PG: 6,5 %
PCF: 5,5 %

Runoff

Marine: 49,5%
Bertrand: 50,5 %

or

Marine: 52 %
Saintignon: 48 %

or

Marine: 42 %
Saintignon: 30 %
Bertrand: 28 %


Marine must hope that Bertrand will finish 3nd at the first turn....

[swl]

PS-UMP coalitions at such a high level would be interesting...