French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[jaichind]

Castaner (PACA PS)
Masseret (ChamAlLo (sounds like the French word for marshmallow ^^), well, Great East, PS)

...both announce they maintain their list.

But PS says local decisions don't coun't, only national ones matters.

Yay boys, get the mess begins...

PS national council has to take place tonight.

Looks like Masseret is in the second round.  Castaner is out.

[rob in cal]

   I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(although the probability of the party actually getting to run something major is new I guess)?

The Regional Presidencies are many things, major they are not.

[Zinneke]

  I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

No.

For one, proportional representation would have meant 20% of the parliament in FN hands and likely a hung parliament with PS-UMP as the only possible coalition.

Also, the current system benefits them far more than a proportional represenation system, largely because they siphon EELV and some FG votes in the second round. I imagine some centrist LR will also back them in the event of a PS-FN duel in the next legislation.

Also, have a look how many in the British Labour Party want a proportional representation system. Similar system to France.

This is actually a really good result for PS given the circumstances. They will hold on to their core and ride out the Hollande sh**tshow. They are still up there with UMP and FN, although most of the time 3rd. More importantly, the far left are nowehere.

[jaichind]

   I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

I think they did PR back in 1986 and FN got a bunch of MPs and nearly led to a hung legislature with FN holding the balance of power.  So the "establishment" worked to change it back to the two round system for 1988.   Neither the PS nor the main center-right parties will go for this.  They both benefit from this system at the second round.

[Hash]

   I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

I think they did PR back in 1986 and FN got a bunch of MPs and nearly led to a hung legislature with FN holding the balance of power.  So the "establishment" worked to change it back to the two round system for 1988.   Neither the PS nor the main center-right parties will go for this.  They both benefit from this system at the second round.

Stop posting nonsense. The right, not a mystical evil 'establishment' the fascists fantasize about, changed the electoral system after the 1986 because they had never supported switching the electoral system in the first place (for good reason, sine Mitterrand changed the electoral system not because of the good of his heart but to hurt the right's chances).

[MaxQue]

It seems that in the two places where the Le Pens are in the running, Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, PS has withdrawn their list in order to stop FN.  I wonder if parties/fronts like FG and EELV will follow suit and call for their supporters to vote for the Center-Right.  If not I am not sure how the FN will be stopped.

Any third-place finisher who does not withdraw now, should be considered a fascist enabler and treated accordingly.

Nonsense. There is some regions where the favorite is the list which finished 3rd (usually the left, when 1st 2nd and 3rd are close, which can count on the Greens and Communists votes, which accounts for more than 10% in some regions.)

Look Normandy. LR 1st, FN 2nd, PS 3rd.

FN can't win (it has no reserves) and PS is the favourite (because PS+PCF+Greens leads by 6% over the right).

[ag]

It seems that in the two places where the Le Pens are in the running, Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, PS has withdrawn their list in order to stop FN.  I wonder if parties/fronts like FG and EELV will follow suit and call for their supporters to vote for the Center-Right.  If not I am not sure how the FN will be stopped.

Any third-place finisher who does not withdraw now, should be considered a fascist enabler and treated accordingly.

Nonsense. There is some regions where the favorite is the list which finished 3rd (usually the left, when 1st 2nd and 3rd are close, which can count on the Greens and Communists votes, which accounts for more than 10% in some regions.)

Look Normandy. LR 1st, FN 2nd, PS 3rd.

In that case it is the second list that should withdraw. But anything that permits a possibility of an FN victory should be treated as high treason.

[The Last Northerner]

I'm a bit suprised (and dissapointed) that LR didn't win the popular vote nationally and PS held on to Bretagne. Wouldn't they be upset about the regional gerrymandering reorganization?

Bretagne eventually remained intact as a region, without any changes. Why would they be upset about this?

They didn't get Loire-Atlantique (which looks slighly more right wing than the rest) back despite the previous PS' Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault being from there and talking about reunification.

[The Last Northerner]

~~**Praying for France**~~

I would, rather, pray for the rest of us. The French can go to hell.

Damning an entire nationality right after a terrorist attack?.... and I thought you hated Greeks...

[jaichind]

Nonsense. There is some regions where the favorite is the list which finished 3rd (usually the left, when 1st 2nd and 3rd are close, which can count on the Greens and Communists votes, which accounts for more than 10% in some regions.)

Look Normandy. LR 1st, FN 2nd, PS 3rd.

In that case it is the second list that should withdraw. But anything that permits a possibility of an FN victory should be treated as high treason.

I am not sure I agree with that as a goal to stop FN.  I think if the electorate gets the perception that "the system"  is out to stop a particular party or movement even at the expense at compromising ones principles there will be a natural sympathy for said movement as a revulsion against the status quo parties as being hypocrites.  While this might stop FN for a while, it will eventually build up support for the FN to ever greater heights on the medium run.   

[jaichind]

Stop posting nonsense. The right, not a mystical evil 'establishment' the fascists fantasize about, changed the electoral system after the 1986 because they had never supported switching the electoral system in the first place (for good reason, sine Mitterrand changed the electoral system not because of the good of his heart but to hurt the right's chances).

Ah, thanks for clearing that up.  It was never clear to me why the system was changed to be PR for 1986 anyway since it was clear on what would take place.  That PS changed it to hurt the center-right does make sense.

[Intell]

Christ, the hyperbole of the FN is ridiculous, not that I like FN but they do get important issues on the table.

[warandwar]

Christ, the hyperbole of the FN is ridiculous, not that I like FN but they do get important issues on the table.

Say what you want about Mussolini, at least he got important issues on the table.

[DL]

Christ, the hyperbole of the FN is ridiculous, not that I like FN but they do get important issues on the table.

Say what you want about Mussolini, at least he got important issues on the table.

Yeah, if it wasn't for Mussolini, no one would have addressed the problem of trains always being late in Italy!

[swl]

Votes by education level

-No degree
-middle school level
-high school level
-high school + 2 years of higher education
-higher degrees

[FredLindq]

What are the chances that FN wins in North and or PACA on sunday?!

[MaxQue]

What are the chances that FN wins in North and or PACA on sunday?!

I would say 75% in North, 60% in PACA?

[jaichind]

What are the chances that FN wins in North and or PACA on sunday?!

I would say 75% in North, 60% in PACA?

We also have Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine where FN also has a good shot at winning since PS's Masseret refuse to withdraw in defiance of the national party.  DLF polled well there so FN has some reserve votes to count on as well.  I wonder how much votes Masseret list will get in the second round? If it something like half the first round then the FN should squeak by there as well.

[DavidB.]

Amazed by people's overreaction. This is 2015, radical right-wing parties have been proved popular in European elections for over a decade now. Regarding France, this isn't so different from the European election in 2014. The people who love to ramble about fascists are missing the point insofar that their revulsion often impairs their capabilities of analyzing where results like these come from.

Peter Mair's take on the emergence of an electoral void is highly relevant: during the last decades, the processes of European integration, globalization, privatization, new public management and (in some instances) decentralization have drastically reduced the scope of parliamentary decision-making, hollowing out the hearts of European parliamentary democracies. In addition to that, as political scientist Andeweg states, political parties, which are conceptually seen as standing between civil society and the state, have moved toward the state and have come to function as representatives of the state to society rather than as society's "bridgehead" within the political realm. This has fundamentally changed the structure and functioning of Europe's democracies. It has benefited the higher educated, the cosmopolitans, the well-off, yet processes like these inevitably led to drawbacks that are being felt on the other side of society, both economically and socially. Thus, a new sort of class-based societies have been created, in which the Danish and French elites have more in common with each other than with the working classes in their own countries. People "on the other side" of society face the consequences of the aforementioned processes, which all steer to one direction, and feel "the elites" have abandoned them, which both leads to distrust in politics and disengagement from politics (note that political parties, too, are disengaging themselves from society by moving toward the state; the disengagement is mutual).

Of course, this is going to have political consequences, and because globalization and immigration lead working-class people to believe elites are "selling out" things that are part of their identity (symbols that are considered redundant by the cosmopolitan class) this often (but not always) leads the radical right to profiting from this process rather than the far-left, even if the far-left has more attention for the underlying economic changes than the radical right. Anyway, the people who now ramble about fascism only perpetuate the existing image that people "on the other side" of society have regarding the cosmopolitan class, the idea that elites are forming a cartel in order to bring about changes that benefit the cosmopolitan class yet are deemed negative for the working class (political scientist Christope Guilluy said reasonable things about this in regard to the French election). Instead, it is high time for people to address the real issues that lead people to vote for parties like Front National. These parties are going to change nothing, but they form a vehicle of resistance for the "losers of globalization" by merely existing, and to many people the fact that they are not able to change anything even when winning elections only proves that "elites" are "against the people". Of course this is way too simplified a picture, but there is some truth it insofar that politicians on both the left and the right have been responsible for diminishing the scope of parliamentary decisionmaking, a process which has fundamentally altered the functioning of democracy and which has arguably benefited the cosmopolitan class, to some extent at the expense of "the other side of society". We should not talk about immigration or about this or that European treaty (which is, of course, what the far right and the far left do) but instead see the bigger picture and conclude that this is essentially about democracy. This does not mean that Front National is a nice party or has good "solutions", and it also does not mean that Front National is going to address issues or even has an understanding of the bigger issues that have changed our democracies (I doubt they do). It does, however, mean that people who analyze elections should be able to see the FN's rise in the light of a certain number of developments, and start thinking about the new class conflict that has emerged and is only going to be enhanced in the next decades.

[Beezer]

Definitely agree with you. I also find the narrative pushed in the German media that the terror attacks helped Le Pen completely misguided. The FN was polling at 26-28% long before the attacks. The success of right-wing populist parties has been in the making for decades, sometimes they of course encounter a particularly favorable political opportunity structure but it's not like the removal of some external factors (like the migrant crisis) would lead to a total demise of Wilders, Le Pen and Strache.

[rob in cal]

    The breakdown of the vote by education posted by SWL enhances the argument about this breakdown of the political system.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sure its an error to act as though this came out of nowhere - as is always done - given that the FN has been a serious political force in France for thirty years now, but I'm not quite sure how pseudo-academic waffle helps to bring greater understanding (no one actually votes for the FN to protest against managerialism in the public sector ffs). The electoral power of the FN has its roots in French history, in much the same way as the peculiarities of the French Left and the 'mainstream' French Right do. In fact it just so happens that those peculiarities are critical to the success of the FN...

[DavidB.]

Sure its an error to act as though this came out of nowhere - as is always done - given that the FN has been a serious political force in France for thirty years now, but I'm not quite sure how pseudo-academic waffle helps to bring greater understanding (no one actually votes for the FN to protest against managerialism in the public sector ffs).

This analysis is not "pseudo-academic", it is actually at an academic level and basically solely draws upon widely accepted academic work of renowned political scientists... The simple remark that "the electoral power of the FN has its roots in French history" (?), by contrast, does seem waffle, even if it does not even reach the level of being pseudo-academic. Of course I never said that people vote FN "to protest against managerialism in the public sector". Either you are deliberately mischaracterizing my analysis, or it is simply at too high a level of abstraction for you, in which case I am truly sorry. I will explain it once more. The point is that privatization, new public management and globalization are, among others (most notably European integration), factors that have reduced the scope of parliamentary decisionmaking, thereby fundamentally altering (and weakening) European democracies. People understand that things are changing. They also understand that their governments are both unable (which is connected to the notion of parties moving toward the state and elites disengaging from society; also, parties lost their emancipatory function to certain societal segments) and unwilling to steer this process (political elites are "winners of globalization" and belong to another class than people who experience the downsides of these developments; this is also connected to the idea of the "diploma democracy") . People who experience the downsides of these changes (job on the line due to globalization/privatization; crime in poor neighborhoods -- which "winners of globalization" do not experience) will be inclined to vote for anti-establishment parties.

[Zinneke]

Some political scientists believe that they can talk on behalf of an electorate based on SPSS.