French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Tender Branson]

Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie (66% counted):

55.2% Xavier BERTRAND
44.8% Marine LE PEN

[Tender Branson]

Bourgogne - Franche-Comté (91% counted):

34.1% Marie-Guite DUFAY (Left)
33.3% Sophie MONTEL (FN)
32.6% François SAUVADET (Right)

[Tender Branson]

Centre-Val de Loire (86% counted):

34.5% Philippe VIGIER (Right)
34.2% François BONNEAU (Left)
31.3% Philippe LOISEAU (FN)

[Tender Branson]

Normandie (95% counted):

36.6% Hervé MORIN (Right)
35.6% Nicolas MAYER-ROSSIGNOL (Left)
27.8% Nicolas BAY (FN)

[Tender Branson]

PACA (52% counted):

51.2% Christian ESTROSI (Right)
48.8% Marion MARÉCHAL-LE PEN (FN)

Much closer than the 55-45 exit polls so far, but Le Pen clearly won't win.

[Rob Bloom]

France-wide result with 66% of the vote counted:

38.9% Right
30.2% FN
27.7% Left
  2.9% Other Left
  0.2% Regional Lists

Turnout: 60%

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/regionales-2015/FE.html

With these results and as many regions as the right, Hollande just graduated in his gerrymandering degree.

These numbers are of course misleading, because the Left didn't stand in two regions!

[jaichind]

France-wide result with 66% of the vote counted:

38.9% Right
30.2% FN
27.7% Left
  2.9% Other Left
  0.2% Regional Lists

Turnout: 60%

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/regionales-2015/FE.html

With these results and as many regions as the right, Hollande just graduated in his gerrymandering degree.

These numbers are of course misleading, because the Left didn't stand in two regions!

And mostly took a dive in the third.

[Zanas]

Centre-Val de Loire (86% counted):

34.5% Philippe VIGIER (Right)
34.2% François BONNEAU (Left)
31.3% Philippe LOISEAU (FN)

This one should switch, as Tours is still out.

[ag]

Centre-Val de Loire (86% counted):

34.5% Philippe VIGIER (Right)
34.2% François BONNEAU (Left)
31.3% Philippe LOISEAU (FN)

This one should switch, as Tours is still out.

The right lead is down to 365 votes (0.04%)

[Tender Branson]

Contrary to other regions where the FN loses as more votes are counted, the young/hot LePen seems to climb higher as more votes are counted - now close to breaking 49%.

[Boston Bread]

Things went from bleak in the first round to hilarious in the second

[Andrea]

95% counted Bourgogne Franche Comté
PS 34.3 FN 32.93 Rep 32.76

98% counted Normandie
Rep 36.49 PS 35.91 FN 27.6

91% counted Centre Val de Loire
PS 34.66 Rep 34.5 FN 30.84

[Tender Branson]

The national vote meanwhile is moving closer to:

40% Right (+13%)
30% Left (incl. other left lists) (+5%)
30% FN (+2%)

... with 75% of the votes counted.

[Andrea]

Morin has won Normandie 36.43 to 36,08%

[Tender Branson]

Pretty interesting that the Socialists will win about half of the regions, while the combined French Right (Republicans+FN) got 70% of the national vote ...

[Andrea]

Bourgogne & co final

PS 34.68
Rep 32.89
FN 32.44

[rob in cal]

  Is the FN failure to win that surprising?  They invariably due poorly in run-off elections.  I can remember reading about how the FN was about to win maybe a dozen seats in the 1994 National Assembly elections and laughing about how ridiculous that assertion was.  The FN needs proportional representation like a fish needs water.

[Zanas]

  Is the FN failure to win that surprising?  They invariably due poorly in run-off elections.  I can remember reading about how the FN was about to win maybe a dozen seats in the 1994 National Assembly elections and laughing about how ridiculous that assertion was.  The FN needs proportional representation like a fish needs water.

It's not that surprising, no. Except to novices in the matter of politics and elections.

They were however 26,000 votes, on 1.2 million, close to winning Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, as three-tier runoffs are a better deal for them. Plus, regional elections are actually proportional, just with a 25% of seats bonus for the FPTP winner of the runoff.

Still, Panzergirl Marine losing nearly 58-42 in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, a hell hole if you want one in terms of FN vote, ensures us that in no way can she win the presidential runoff in 18 months, at all, ever, which is... well, something.

[jaichind]

Looks like there were some FN tactical voting for Center-Right in Île-de-France.

[The Last Northerner]

  Is the FN failure to win that surprising?  They invariably due poorly in run-off elections.  I can remember reading about how the FN was about to win maybe a dozen seats in the 1994 National Assembly elections and laughing about how ridiculous that assertion was. 

I thought they were favored to eek out narrow victories in PACA/NPDC (but nowhere else). Regional powers in France are relatively weak and this is a lot different than a high-stakes national presidential election. Voting for the FN in the former does not mean electing Marine Le Pen as President.

[Zanas]

Looks like there were some FN tactical voting for Center-Right in Île-de-France.

It's especially impressive in the chic bourgeois arrondissements of Paris (6-7-8-16). FN loses 2,000 of their 4,800 first-round votes in the 16th arrondissement. Upper class bourgeois used the FN vote in the first round to tell les Républicains they wanted a true radical right-wing, and they came back in herds in the runoff.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Stolen from Twitter:

[Zanas]

Yours is incomplete. This one is final. Well at least for the mainland.

[Hash]

Not extremely surprising, except perhaps the scale of some FN defeats. Anybody who has studied French elections at a more than cursory level could have told you that; unfortunately, journalists covering French elections are mostly idiots who have bought in to the trash pop analysis of the FN/French electoral politics (which is scarily prevalent in this very thread).

I like the results in Corsica. It's nice to see the slimy old leftist and rightist dynasties kicked out for a change.

[big bad fab]

Well, I'll try to be more precise when all the results are in (which isn't the case), but it's only the right that has gained from a better turnout (just see some rough sums on my blog http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/)

Of course, that doesn't mean that every new voter voted for the right, but that combining better turnout and vote transfers between the 2 rounds is benefiting only the right.

That confirms FN has mostly gained votes from the right in the first right, compared with departmental elections (March '15) and municipal elections ('14), due to the terrorist attacks.