French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's happening in Guyane, Reunion etc?

[Donnie]

What's happening in Guyane, Reunion etc?

They are bringing the votes by steamboat.

[Hash]

The Ministry has results by constituency and canton for the first round available on the government's open data website, albeit in a very hard to manoeuvre Excel file which takes lots of patience and time to work with. I put together a leading party by constituency map, and I hope to do some vote strength map for the largest parties.

[Hash]

What's happening in Guyane, Reunion etc?

Guyane and Martinique held elections, but they were elections to 'assemblies' rather than regional councils, since both of them are now 'collectivité territoriale uniques' (single/unique territorial collectivities), that is a single level merging the former regional councils and general councils. Incidentally, Corse is also moving towards this status by 2018, which means that there will be early regional elections on the island sometime before then.

Guyane

Rodolphe Alexandre (DVG) 42.34% > 54.55%
Alain Tien-Long (DVG) 30.24 > 45.45%
Chantal Berthelot (PSG) 8.49%
Line Létard (Walwari) 7.1%
Fabien Canavy (MDES) 5.71%
Rémy Louis Budoc (LR-UDI) 3.08%
Muriel Icaré Nourel (DVD) 1.59%
Jean-Marie Taubira (DVG) 0.97%
Sylvio Létard (Reg) 0.48%

abst: 57.4% >53.4%

Incumbent president Rodolphe Alexandre (DVG) was reelected with 54.6% against 45.4% for Alain Tien-Liong (DVG), the president of the general council. Rodolphe Alexandre, the former mayor of Cayenne (2008-2010), had been elected to the regional presidency in 2010 as the UMP candidate (defeating Christiane Taubira), but generally lacks any clear partisan or ideological anchors (this is overseas French politics, after all) and his majority includes factions of both the left and right. This year, Alexandre was supported by the national PS, not to be confused with the Guyanese Socialist Party (PSG), led by Antoine Karam (former president of the CR and now senator), which had its own candidate in the first round, Chantal Berthelot, one of Guyane's two deputies. Alain Tien-Liong was a member of the MDES, a 'separatist' party, but that party rejected his alliance strategy and ran their own candidate. The LR-UDI had their own candidate, a nobody, but convicted felon Léon Bertrand, the main figure of the right in Guyana, supported Tien-Liong. The Walwari, which is Christiane Taubira's party, had their own candidate (Line Létard), and Taubira was in 11th spot on the list for the Cayenne section.

Martinique

Serge Letchimy (PPM-PS-BPM-PCM-MPF)* 38.96%
Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-RDM-Palima-PRM) 30.28%
Yan Monplaisir (LR-MoDem) 14.32%
Marcellin Nadeau (Modemas) 6.34%
Nathalie Jos (DVG) 3.21%
Joseph Virassamy (DVD) 2.05%
Ghislaine Joachim-Arnaud (CO-LO) 2.04%
Philippe Petit (UDI) 1.51%
Daniel Gromat (EXG) 1.29%

Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-RDM-Palima-PRM + LR-MoDem) 54.14%
Serge Letchimy (PPM-PS-BPM-PCM-MPF)* 45.86%

abst: 58.8% > 47.6%

A very hotly contested race for the first Martinique assembly and executive council, between the incumbent president of the regional council Serge Letchimy (Martinican Progressive Party, PPM, Aimé Césaire's old party and a left-wing autonomist group) and the deputy/former president of the CR Alfred Marie-Jeanne of the separatist-but-not-really-separatist Martinican Independence Movement (MIM). Letchimy (mayor of Fort-de-France, the PPM's stronghold) had defeated Alfred Marie-Jeanne, then the two-term incumbent, in the 2010 regional elections. Alfred Marie-Jeanne's first round coalition included the MIM's other traditional allies of late, notably the RDM of former senator and former president of the CG Claude Lise (a PPM dissident), which led the list in the north section. Yan Monplaisir, a moderate-ish figure, united most of the weak right (the right has been a minor third force in regional politics for some 20 years now). There was also another regionalist list led by Marcellin Nadeau and the 'separatist' Modemas. After the first round, there was an historic (and somewhat unnatural) alliance between Marie-Jeanne (the 'separatist' left) and Monplaisir (the moderate right), on a vague promise of change; given that the MIM is considered to be on the far-left in French politics because its two deputies sit with the Communists in the GDR group in Paris, the alliance between them and the local right was widely interpreted by metro observers as very odd. Nevertheless, the alliance was successful, and Marie-Jeanne defeated Letchimy in the runoff by a considerable margin.

Guadeloupe

Ary Chalus (GUSR-DVG-DVD) 43.55% > 57.42%
Victorin Lurel (PS-PPDG-Verts)* 41.09% > 42.48%
Laurent Bernier (LR-UDI) 4.49%
Mélina Seymour (DVD) 3.18%
Alain Plaisir (DVG) 1.85%
Henri Yoyotte (DVD) 1.58%
Jean-Marie Nomertin (CO) 1.42%
Stéphan Viennet (FN) 1.4%
Mona Cadoce (PCG) 0.92%
Marie-Christine Mirre-Quidal (UPLG) 0.5%

Famously, Guadeloupe had been the only region to be won by the first round in 2010 (or, for that matter, the only region to be won by the first round since two-round regional elections exist), with the landslide reelection of Victorin Lurel (PS), who later became the overseas minister in the Ayrault governments (which made him the most famous overseas politician in metro France). In 2014, Lurel's ally was defeated in his stronghold of Vieux-Habitants in the municipal elections, Lurel's first defeat in 17 years, and he was subsequently dumped from cabinet by Manuel Valls, and 'returned' to Guadeloupe. His two-year absence from Guadeloupe, his stint as a minister in Paris and his close association with the unpopular national executive and PS have likely hurt him quite a bit. In the first round, Lurel ended up behind Ary Chalus, député-maire of Baie-Mahault, associated with a small moderate centre-left party (Guadeloupe unie, socialisme et réalités, GUSR) and sitting in the RRDP group in Paris. Chalus led a composite 'change' alliance of the moderate left and factions of the right (even if the LR-UDI had their own candidate, a general councillor). Marie-Luce Penchard, the daughter of Lucette Michaux-Chevry - longtime strongwoman/crook of the local right (three-term president of the CR from 1992 to 2004) - former overseas minister in the Fillon government (where she was absolutely horrible) and current mayor of Basse-Terre (her mother's stronghold), was second on Chalus' list. In the second round, Chalus built on his lead and won by a large margin. Lurel was defeated even in his personal stronghold of Vieux-Habitants, lost by a lot in Les Abymes (the largest city, governed by PPDG député-maire Éric Jalton).

La Réunion

Didier Robert (LR-UDI)* 40.36% > 52.69%
Huguette Bello (PLR-PS-EELV-DVG) 23.8% > 47.31%
Thierry Robert (MoDem/LPA-DVG) 20.32%
Patrick Lebreton (PCR-PS diss.) 7.12%
Joseph Grondin (FN) 2.39%
Jean-Hugues Ratenon (DVG) 1.69%
Mathias Payet (Oth) 1.47%
René-Paul Victoria (DVD) 1.02%
Aniel Boyer (Nasion Rénioné-Reg) 0.52%
Jean-Yves Payet (LO) 0.48%
David Appadoo (Oth) 0.48%
Jean-Jack Morel (DLF) 0.37%

abst: 55.6% > 44.7%

In 2010, La Réunion had been gained by the right counter-cyclically, with Didier Robert (UMP député-maire of Le Tampon at the time) defeating two-term incumbent Paul Vergès (Reunionese Communist Party, PCR), who has held an elected office for 60 years (making him the longest-serving politician in France, one year ahead of Panzerdaddy) in a triangulaire with the PS. Didier Robert's reelection alliance included Nassimah Dindar (UDI), president of the CG on second place on his list. He faced a divided opposition field in the first round. Huguette Bello, a four-term deputy and former mayor of Saint-Paul (2008-2014), who quit the PCR in 2012 but was nonetheless reelected to her National Assembly seat as a dissident candidate by a huge landslide in the legislative elections; she was supported officially by the PS and her own movement, something called 'Pour La Réunion'. Elected mayor of Saint-Paul in 2008, she lost her reelection bid to the UMP in 2014. PS député-maire of Saint-Joseph Patrick Lebreton ran as a PS dissident, with the official support of the PCR; since Vergès' defeat in 2010 and Huguette Bello's dissidence in 2012, the PCR has lost a lot of its former strength in local politics, and did particularly badly in the departmental elections there earlier this year. MoDem député-maire of Saint-Leu Thierry Robert (sitting in the RRDP group), a loudmouth type, also ran. Finally, René-Paul Victoria, a former right-wing deputy and mayor of Saint-Denis (defeated in 2008 and 2014), ran a dissident list, but his political career seems to be dying. In the first round, Didier Robert led by a wide margin against the divided opposition, but Bello, somewhat unexpectedly, sealed an anti-Robert alliance with her two other major rivals (Thierry Robert, Patrick Lebreton) to run a common list in the second round. This alliance had a theoretical majority on first round numbers (51.2%), but imperfect transfers and the impact of a 10+% increase in turnout meant that it ended up narrowly defeated. The anti-Robert alliance won the main towns of their candidates or parties - Saint-Leu, Saint-Joseph, the old PCR/PLR stronghold of Le Port, Saint-Benoît, but was defeated in the three largest towns - Saint-Denis, Saint-Paul, Saint-Pierre.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Zanas]

Al, if I may, I suggest you make a map of the percentage of votes lost by the FN between both rounds in IdF, or even Petite couronne, and then we can post it next to a map of a wealth indicator of some sort (GDP per capita, rental prices) and have a good laugh.

[Hash]

Al, if I may, I suggest you make a map of the percentage of votes lost by the FN between both rounds in IdF, or even Petite couronne, and then we can post it next to a map of a wealth indicator of some sort (GDP per capita, rental prices) and have a good laugh.

Unfortunately, the correlation between income and FN change in Ile-de-France is quasi-nonexistent: the RSQ value is 0.02, the correlation coefficient is -0.13 (and no different for the Petite Couronne).

edit: map

[Zanas]

Al, if I may, I suggest you make a map of the percentage of votes lost by the FN between both rounds in IdF, or even Petite couronne, and then we can post it next to a map of a wealth indicator of some sort (GDP per capita, rental prices) and have a good laugh.

Unfortunately, the correlation between income and FN change in Ile-de-France is quasi-nonexistent: the RSQ value is 0.02, the correlation coefficient is -0.13 (and no different for the Petite Couronne).

edit: map

Do the Paris arrondissement and you'll see something shaping up. 7, 8 and 16 have seen around 40% vote losses for FN, when 13, 18, 19 and 20 are between a 15% and 20% decrease. Is there another explanation that evades me ?

[Hash]

Do the Paris arrondissement and you'll see something shaping up. 7, 8 and 16 have seen around 40% vote losses for FN, when 13, 18, 19 and 20 are between a 15% and 20% decrease. Is there another explanation that evades me ?

Yes, Paris intra-muros is the exception here - the correlation between income and FN change (in terms of % exprimés loss) is quite strong (RSQ 0.45, CORREL -0.67). In the whole region, while the link between FN change and income is not clear, there is a pretty clear link (shockingly) between FN change and the difference between Pécresse's runoff vote and various sums of the 'non-FN right' in the first round: the RSQ values are 0.17 (comparing to Pécresse herself on Dec. 6), 0.18 (compared to LR+DVD on Dec. 6) and 0.45 (compared to LR+DVD+DLF on Dec. 6). My guess, outside of Paris intra-muros, is that first round FN voters in lower middle-class white suburbia (the kind which is traditionally right-wing but not very rich, highly educated or overwhelmingly populated by white-collar professionals - something which obviously doesn't really exist in Paris proper) switched in particularly significant numbers to the traditional right in the runoff, either because their first round vote was a protest vote for whatever reasons or to 'block' Bartolone.

[Hash]

Maps!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Yay!

I always was wondering why Europe Écologie-Les Verts have such strong support in Occitania? 

[Zanas]

Yay!

I always was wondering why Europe Écologie-Les Verts have such strong support in Occitania? 

Like Hash pointed on his map, in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées there was a joint EELV-FG list with both parts fully engaged, boosting their score. I don't think EELV has a habit of getting an overwhelmingly better score in Occitania than in other left-wing parts of the country (around Nantes, Bretagne, Île-de-France). Plus, Limousin can be considered occitan, and is on the contrary a mission land for EELV.

One can just say that EELV generally performs well in left-wing territories, and a bit better in parts where communism never built strongholds, and in parts where jacobinism is not fashionable. The Occitan hinterland kind of fills both criteria.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

My bad, didn't notice that on FG maps places where they had coalition with EELV had been marked with grey colour.

[adma]

My bad, didn't notice that on FG maps places where they had coalition with EELV had been marked with grey colour.

Unfortunately, looking at it reminds me of when I inadvertently dismantle a pomegranate gone bad ;-)

[Hash]

[homelycooking]

[homelycooking]

[swl]

So much brown on the Ile de France map...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So much brown on the Ile de France map...

Seine-et-Marne really messes it up.