Was there any "real" hope for Dukakis in the closing weeks of the '88 campaign?

[sg0508]

Looking back at polls, and consistent with other races, there was the "tightening" effect, which usually favors the challenging party/candidate.  I believe the final popular vote poll had Bush up only 51-47% or 52-47% (the results yielded a 7.5 pt. spread). 

Watching old youtubes (CBS/NBC), there were the talks of the 18 state strategy of Dukakis' campaign, and possibly some viability in other states (i.e. Colorado, New Mexico, etc).  The populist rhetoric, some which may argue was desperation, seemed to be taking shape and making a difference. 

Of course on Election Night, it quickly fell apart by the 8:00 hour (EST), as many of the 18 states started falling for Bush. Once OH and Michigan were gone for Dukakis, all was done, well before polls in the west closed.

So, was this late rally simply nonsense, the media trying to make a difference, or was there real hope that Dukakis could actually pull it off?

If I remember correctly (and ironically), Bush 41 had the same MO at the closing in '92, with Tim Russert actually saying he had a shot for the win in the closing days.  Of course, Clinton was in solid command on Election Night from the get go, despite the plurality margin being respectable.

Thoughts?

[OSR stands with Israel]

No when Reagan regained his popularity , it was all over for  Dukakis as Bush unlike Gore didnt distance himself from Reagan as Gore distanced himself from Clinton.

[Podgy the Bear]

It was Dukakis self delusion plus the press trying to create some excitement in a boring race.  By mid-October 1988 after the second debate (following Dukakis's reply to the infamous Kitty Dukakis question), the predictions were that Bush would have approached the Reagan electoral vote totals of 1980 and 1984.  Dukakis was assured of only 30 electoral votes at that time (Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and D.C. with Iowa and Hawaii leaning to him). 

Dukakis did rally and consolidate the Democratic vote somewhat--and the fact that Election Day was on November 8 probably helped.  And the Democrats did create the formation of the electoral base that persists today.

[buritobr]

Four days before the election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrV9r3Z-PYo

News showing that Dukakis was gaining ground in the polls but Bush was the favorite.
Cuomo believing in the miracle.

[bobloblaw]

Actually the election was closer than the polls predicted.

[bobloblaw]

Four days before the election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrV9r3Z-PYo

News showing that Dukakis was gaining ground in the polls but Bush was the favorite.
Cuomo believing in the miracle.

That isnt even American news

[SingingAnalyst]

Not after the tank.

[MIKESOWELL]

Dukakis really didn't have a chance. If you look at the fact that the Republicans were coming off of a 59 percent 49 state landslide, that and the good economy with a popular incumbent, even with party fatigue in favor for the democrats,  at best they could expect a 100 electoral vote 45-46 percent showing. Which is exactly what they got. Richard Nixon presciently pointed out though, that Bush's electoral landslide was misleading. Many of the big states that he carried, such as Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California were by smaller margins than his national average. I believe he said that a switch of less than a million votes nationally in a few states would have given the election to Dukakis which is shocking when you consider that Bush won by over seven million votes nationally.

[Asian Nazi]

Dukakis definitely could've done better, but I don't think he had a real chance unless Reagan got less popular or the economy got worse. 

[MIKESOWELL]

I went and looked at the state returns myself and it is very interesting. A switch of less than 740,000 votes in California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maryland would have given Dukakis 271 electoral votes (providing he still loses the faithless elector to Lloyd Bentsen.) He would still lose the popular vote to Bush by more than six million votes and percentage wise 52.6 to 46.4 percent. Interesting.