Ranking Presidential Elections in which the incumbent party was most unpopular
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  Ranking Presidential Elections in which the incumbent party was most unpopular
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Author Topic: Ranking Presidential Elections in which the incumbent party was most unpopular  (Read 1108 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: September 18, 2015, 01:41:39 PM »

Only since 1860

I would rank them like this

1. Republicans in 1932
2. Democrats in 1896
3. Democrats in 1920
4. Democrats in 1980
5. Republicans in 2008
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2015, 01:15:55 AM »

I'd switch 2 and 3...the 1920 defeat was much bigger. Of course, Bryan making it closer may have been due to him distancing himself from Cleveland...certainly moreso than Cox did from Wilson.

Democrats in 1980/Republicans in 2008 is probably a tie.

How about Democrats in 1952 for the next spot? Yes, the race would've been closer without Ike, but Truman's approval ratings were pretty dismal.

Most unpopular incumbent parties to win:

1. Republicans in 1876
2. Republicans  in 2004
3. Democrats in 2012
4. Democrats in 1916
4. Democrats in 1948


Most popular incumbent parties to lose:

1. Democrats in 2000
2. Democrats in 1892
3. Republicans in 1960
4. Republicans in 1884
5. Republicans in 1976


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Crumpets
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2015, 02:05:05 AM »

In 1896, the Republicans were also fairly unpopular, were they not? Not saying the Democrats weren't also very unpopular at the time, but it wasn't the one-sided affair that elections like 1932 and 1980 where the opposing party was able to wipe the floor with the incumbent. I believe I once read that Bryan was widely considered the favorite until a couple of months before the election.

Forgive me if this is all totally wrong. It's been a long time since I've studied turn-of-the-century American politics.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2015, 02:32:04 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2015, 02:34:41 AM by Moderate Hero Republican »

In 1896, the Republicans were also fairly unpopular, were they not? Not saying the Democrats weren't also very unpopular at the time, but it wasn't the one-sided affair that elections like 1932 and 1980 where the opposing party was able to wipe the floor with the incumbent. I believe I once read that Bryan was widely considered the favorite until a couple of months before the election.

Forgive me if this is all totally wrong. It's been a long time since I've studied turn-of-the-century American politics.

I think the 1890s depression was blamed on Cleveland and I believe the Democrats lost 127 seats in 1894(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894) and despite Republicans holding like 60+ seats which were lean democrat ,the Democrats only managed to get back around 31 seats
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2015, 06:34:09 AM »

1932, definitely.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2015, 09:04:11 AM »



Most popular to lose would also include Dem in 1968. LBJ's approval rating was in the mid to high 40s. Most unpopular to win would also include 1968. Afterall the period 1964-68, all the GOP could muster was 43%???
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2015, 09:24:16 AM »

1920 and 1932 would have to be the biggest swings.  For example, in California--a state Wilson infamously won in 1916, the Democrats dropped to 30% in 1920.  And in 1932, the South returned to even bigger Democratic margins from wins or losses of the 1920s. 

The devastation of the incumbent party in those elections was total--and the victory for the winning party went all the way down into congressional, state, and local levels. 

I would say that 1896 was a realignment in the truest sense--resulting in part to the damage to the Democrats suffereed in 1894.  The Democrats made a partial comeback in 1896.  Looking at the vote totals, even though the popular vote was decisive for McKinley, Bryan came within 40,000 votes in four states (California, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio) of winning the election.
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