2015-16 Winter Outlook from the Weather Channel (and Accuweather)

[Tender Branson]

In the next 3 days we are getting 5 to 30 inches of snow here.

And this after 5 weeks of uninterrupted mild, sunny, cloudless weather with temps between 15-25°C.

About time anyway ... (the ski areas were already praying for snow).

[muon2]

Here in the western Chicago 'burbs our first winter storm is underway. After an hour or so we have a 1/2 inch accumulation. The snow is expected to fall through tomorrow noon.

Warm temps have been here up to now as forecast by the long range model. Warm will not be around this weekend with the combination of snow cover and cold air.

[Mr. Illini]

16 inches recorded in the northern suburbs this weekend! Largest November snowstorm in 120 years here. Winter is entering with a bang.

[muon2]

We ended up with about 6" of heavy wet snow in my part of the far western suburbs. Yet just 5 miles north of me there were reports of over a foot of snow.

[Frodo]

New data are in, and it seems the 2015-16 El Nino is on course to equal -possibly even surpass- the Super El Nino of 1997-98:

This remarkably strong El Niño has topped yet another significant record

By Angela Fritz
December 4 at 3:10 PM

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[Frodo]

I think they are too generous with the cold.  If the El Nino holds up as one of the strongest on record, it will likely mean very few areas of below normal temperatures.  Maybe the deep south or Texas will see slightly below average temperatures... but the north will be "blow torched" as Arctic air stays on the other side of the Arctic in northern Eurasia.

Still, if you were booking a ski vacation this winter... New Mexico, southern Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe and points south would be your best bet.

I'd still say the Cascades will have a better year than last year.. but that's not saying much at all.

It looks like you're right, after all:

Winter Outlook Update: January - March 2016 to Feel Influence of Strong El Niño

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[Ban my account ffs!]

Yeah the warmth has been impressive, especially further east.  In Minneapolis it still won't approach the warmth seen in Dec. 1877 but it'll be in the top few.

The recent pattern is pretty close to the opposite of what we saw last year.  This year we have a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge in the eastern U.S.  This has meant lots of mountain snow in the west and an end to the drought across much of the PNW while there has been partial drought relief across the entire region.

As we move into January and February.. the storm track will shift southward and bring rains to SoCal and the deserts.  And there will be more snow across the east even if it's still less than normal.

[Frodo]

Yeah the warmth has been impressive, especially further east.  In Minneapolis it still won't approach the warmth seen in Dec. 1877 but it'll be in the top few.

The recent pattern is pretty close to the opposite of what we saw last year.  This year we have a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge in the eastern U.S.  This has meant lots of mountain snow in the west and an end to the drought across much of the PNW while there has been partial drought relief across the entire region.

As we move into January and February.. the storm track will shift southward and bring rains to SoCal and the deserts.  And there will be more snow across the east even if it's still less than normal.

There won't be too much complaining about it -the West needs that rain and snow to at least put a big dent in their drought, and the East needs a break from the record cold, ice, and snow we had the past few winters.  

[Ban my account ffs!]

Yeah the warmth has been impressive, especially further east.  In Minneapolis it still won't approach the warmth seen in Dec. 1877 but it'll be in the top few.

The recent pattern is pretty close to the opposite of what we saw last year.  This year we have a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge in the eastern U.S.  This has meant lots of mountain snow in the west and an end to the drought across much of the PNW while there has been partial drought relief across the entire region.

As we move into January and February.. the storm track will shift southward and bring rains to SoCal and the deserts.  And there will be more snow across the east even if it's still less than normal.

There won't be too much complaining about it -the West needs that rain and snow to at least put a big dent in their drought, and the East needs a break from the record cold, ice, and snow we had the past few winters. 

Definitely.  The main complaints are lack of snow in New England and no white Christmas. 

While the lack of snow and wintry weather has been a let down for me... I think the pattern has been exactly what we need.  It is a bit unusual for an El Nino, though to have such a strong ridge in the eastern U.S.  That is usually a La Nina thing, actually.

I think it has more to do with the recent trend of cooling in the Atlantic and the positive PDO in the Pacific.  The cooling Atlantic favors more precipitation over the U.S. in general while a positive PDO allows for more inflows of precipitation from the tropical Pacific.

When you have a +PDO with a downward trending AMO (Atlantic mode), it especially supports incursions of tropical Pacific moisture that comes up through Mexico into the desert SW or into Texas.  This also starves the coast of rain.. which is why as the PDO became positive TX, NM, and AZ saw drought relief while it intensified in California.  In fact.. the deserts of CA have seen precipitation and drought relief this year.

What will be interesting is what comes next?  La Nina could come next year and remain for up to 3 winter seasons.  It might not be bad for CA for the first year but generally the longer La Nina sticks around.. the drier it gets.

[Frodo]

During major solar minimums (I'm talking Dalton and Maunder, and the like), do we know if the weather was dominated by La Ninas or El Ninos?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

We got the slightest dusting of snow yesterday.  I wish I could give a big middle finger to El Nino for cheating me out of my white Christmas for two years in a row.

In 2011, we had hardly any snow on Christmas, and I think that was an El Nino year.  Last year, we had a snowfall on Christmas Eve, but it was all gone by morning, and there was hardly any snow before that.  That may have been the same El Nino system we're seeing now.

[DINGO Joe]

Well it's been quite the weather week, heat, tornadoes, massive flooding (including the Mississippi-- in winter!) followed by ice storms and blizzards.  Dead bodies turning up everywhere including international soldiers in Missouri and a dumb country musician in OK.

How's your winter going?

In New Orleans we topped 80 for 4 straight days with oppressive humidity but only minor street flooding.  More pleasant and seasonal weather has arrived (60s/50s).  the Army Corp of Engineers will hold their first formal meeting on which spillways will have to be opened to deal with the Mississippi which is expected to peak here on Jan 20th.

[Frodo]

Just days after temperatures reached a balmy 16 degrees Celsius (or around 61 degrees F) on Christmas eve, Montreal was hit by a snowstorm that gave them a record 39 centimeters (15.4 inches) of snow, breaching the previous record set during the 1950s.

[Ban my account ffs!]

THe classic El Nino pattern is due to set up the next week with a ridge building across the Pacific Northwest while a deep trough digs in over the far SW U.S. and Mexico diverting storms far to the south.  So while the northern U.S> will be dry and chilly... only the far south will see precipitation.

The pattern after seems to be a classic El Nino blocking pattern like that seen in 2009/10 when "snowmageddon" occurred.  A big block will build over Canada while pressures lower across the U.S. driving the storm track and cold air across the U.S.  This will likely mean a much wintrier pattern than we've seen so far this winter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

El Nino took a break and snow has returned for time being. But still no sign of polar votex that brought bizzards to midwest in recent years.

[Ban my account ffs!]

El Nino took a break and snow has returned for time being. But still no sign of polar votex that brought bizzards to midwest in recent years.

Actually the extreme warmth across the eastern and central U.S. with storms pummeling the PNW during December was a symptom of a deeper polar vortex than normal with higher pressures further south.  This pulls the jet stream and the cold northward and causes oceanic air to dominate the continents.  This can be measured by the Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation which were positive during December.

That pattern is reversing.  Blocking high pressure will build from Alaska over to Greenland and across the Arctic ocean while the vortex will split up and move southward.  The most potent piece of the vortex will move south over Hudson Bay and then into NW Ontario... not unlike the past couple winters.

But thanks to El Nino, pressures will also fall over the Pacific ocean... allowing storms to hit California rather than being shunted up to Alaska.  This will bring much more moisture into the U.S> just as the cold sets in.

Fun and games indeed.

[Frodo]

Thank goodness for the strong El Nino we are currently in -otherwise, we would experiencing cold as severe and long-lasting as that we experienced last year, and likely will experience again next winter once this El Nino fades away:

February outlook: Up and down temperatures, with a chance of mid-month snow

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[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

2015-2016 Winter?? Where where??!

'Spreads with 1980-2010 average'





Difference with average again





Freezing days, compared to average

In short, media say that, here, it's just 'been' the warmest winter ever recorded...

When there was snow stroms in North-Eastern US, I checked, I'm right on the same laltitude than Maine, and here, was about 16° C in the afternoon, only starrted heater a few days so far.

[bagelman]

We've been having an on-and-off mini winter for the latter half of this month

[DINGO Joe]

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25952

Yeah it was a warm one.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...and a rather cold spring so far, bloody North-West wind.

Bordel 'y'a plus de saisons'...