MI-MRG: Clinton in close race with Bush, Fiorina, and Trump
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  MI-MRG: Clinton in close race with Bush, Fiorina, and Trump
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Author Topic: MI-MRG: Clinton in close race with Bush, Fiorina, and Trump  (Read 1208 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: September 19, 2015, 09:05:07 AM »

MRG poll of Michigan, conducted Sept. 9-14:

http://mrgmi.com/2015/09/hillary-takes-a-hit/

Bush 40%
Clinton 39%

Fiorina 40%
Clinton 39%

Clinton 43%
Trump 40%
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2015, 09:08:33 AM »

Eh, she'll be back up again when disenfranchised Democrats get over themselves and realize that Hillary is better than any Republican.
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mds32
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2015, 09:17:43 AM »

Eh, she'll be back up again when disenfranchised Democrats get over themselves and realize that Hillary is better than any Republican.

Still those are bad numbers and reflect even worse in other swing states.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2015, 09:42:54 AM »

For me, a poll has to have at least one of the candidates receiving 45% for it to be a worthwhile piece of information.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2015, 10:24:07 AM »

Remember, y'all, this is the SECOND straight poll of Michigan that has Hillary losing.  Is any poll with bad news for HRC a junk poll now?  Face it, Michigan is a state that has the potential to rapidly trend towards the GOP, along with the rest of the Rust Belt.  This could be a conceivable 2028 or 2032 map (sorry, I don't know how to change EVs), but Michigan could be in play this time around:

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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2015, 10:45:40 AM »

Funny how people ignore Michigan polls but say Virginia polls are evidence the state leans D.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2015, 11:46:15 AM »

MI is a bellweather and so is Pa, but the fact is that WI and NH are in play moreso or less. The upper Midwest will continue to go 3-4 pts Democratic more than natl average. But the GOP is best to go with either WI or NH.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2015, 04:09:16 PM »

Michigan Polls have a history of being complete and utter trash really until really late in the cycle. I can recall many times polls showing McCain ahead in 2008 and Romney ahead in 2012.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2015, 01:34:14 AM »

Remember, Michigan was a battleground state in 2004.

McCain publicly gave up on the state in 2008 (plus there was a huge democratic wave) and in 2012, Romney's position on the auto bailout hurt him a lot. It could snap back to a 4, 5 point margin fairly easily. But Clinton probably won't lose it.
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2015, 05:16:09 AM »

For me, a poll has to have at least one of the candidates receiving 45% for it to be a worthwhile piece of information.

You might want to qualify that, otherwise every poll of say the 2006 Texas governor race wouldn't be worthwhile.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2015, 05:53:27 AM »

This is a MI poll, not by a major - instant trash.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2015, 06:11:05 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2015, 06:13:55 AM by eric82oslo »

Remember, y'all, this is the SECOND straight poll of Michigan that has Hillary losing.  Is any poll with bad news for HRC a junk poll now?  Face it, Michigan is a state that has the potential to rapidly trend towards the GOP, along with the rest of the Rust Belt.  This could be a conceivable 2028 or 2032 map (sorry, I don't know how to change EVs), but Michigan could be in play this time around:



What you're forgetting is that both Arizona, Texas and Georgia will be voting Democratic by 2032 (and Arizona very heavily so). Arizona will at the latest flip either in 2016 or 2020. I'd bet 30,000$ on that. I know I'm not Romney, but today I decided to be. Tongue (Mississippi and Alaska might as well be, even South Carolina.)

Other than that, I don't disagree with your prediction at all, concerning the north.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2015, 06:19:14 AM »

MRG poll of Michigan, conducted Sept. 9-14:

http://mrgmi.com/2015/09/hillary-takes-a-hit/

Bush 40%
Clinton 39%

Fiorina 40%
Clinton 39%

Clinton 43%
Trump 40%


Since Bush is currently 4th or 5th nationally, this poll gives us a D+1%.
Weird they didn't care to poll neither Carson nor Rubio. (Nor Paul who is a real darling of Michiganders.)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2015, 08:04:28 AM »

Why do they poll Jeb these days to put the numbers better for the GOP? He's not winning any primary poll.

The only state that it matters in is FL. But its still in play with Trump.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2015, 06:37:44 PM »


Again... why are we treating this poll like it should be listened to?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2015, 06:44:11 PM »


Again... why are we treating this poll like it should be listened to?

It's junk because I don't like the results...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2015, 06:46:18 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2015, 06:49:58 PM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »


Again... why are we treating this poll like it should be listened to?

It's junk because I don't like the results...

Don't give me that. I've got a LONG record of paying no attention to the MI polling industry, why? Because they're universally terrible.

You need to do better than accuse someone of hackery as a default.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2015, 10:41:59 PM »

Funny how people ignore Michigan polls but say Virginia polls are evidence the state leans D.

...because VA has went reliably Democratic in the past two presidential elections and Michigan even more so?
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Skye
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2015, 10:48:25 PM »

Funny how people ignore Michigan polls but say Virginia polls are evidence the state leans D.

...because VA has went reliably Democratic in the past two presidential elections and Michigan even more so?
It has voted pretty close to the national results. As 'reliable' as the overall national results are.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2015, 10:51:29 PM »

Funny how people ignore Michigan polls but say Virginia polls are evidence the state leans D.

...because VA has went reliably Democratic in the past two presidential elections and Michigan even more so?
It has voted pretty close to the national results. As 'reliable' as the overall national results are.

OK, but that's not what your original argument implied. If VA is D+0, then MI is D+4. You insinuated that they are both equally fluid.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2015, 11:19:21 PM »

Fun fact: almost exactly four years ago, MRG put Obama only 1 point ahead of Romney in Michigan.  Over a year later he went on to win it by nearly 10 points, of course.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2015, 11:27:08 PM »

Fun fact: almost exactly four years ago, MRG put Obama only 1 point ahead of Romney in Michigan.  Over a year later he went on to win it by nearly 10 points, of course.

Shhhh.... do you want to be called a hack?!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2015, 11:56:51 PM »

Fun fact: almost exactly four years ago, MRG put Obama only 1 point ahead of Romney in Michigan.  Over a year later he went on to win it by nearly 10 points, of course.

And maybe that's what would have happened if the election had occurred in September 2011. Obama's approval on September 23, 2011 was 43/51 per RCP. On election day 2012, it was much better - 50/47.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2015, 12:14:36 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2015, 12:16:21 AM by OC »

Clinton wont win the Wolverine state by 10, she should win the dtate by four, just like Kerry did over a decade ago.

MI, WI & Pa usually polls with Natl average and Clinton is leading by four.
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RFayette
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2015, 12:30:37 AM »

Fun fact: almost exactly four years ago, MRG put Obama only 1 point ahead of Romney in Michigan.  Over a year later he went on to win it by nearly 10 points, of course.

And maybe that's what would have happened if the election had occurred in September 2011. Obama's approval on September 23, 2011 was 43/51 per RCP. On election day 2012, it was much better - 50/47.

We saw the same trend in the Land/Peters race, and in that election, Obama's approval was pretty constant throughout the period.
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