Who is more likely to win their party's nomination?

[Stranger in a strange land]

This should be interesting. I'll go with the one who's leading in Iowa and New Hampshire over the one who's treading water at around 4th place after two lackluster debate performances.

[Pyro]

Bush is in a downward trend but it's not too late to reverse it.
I highly doubt that the Democratic establishment will ever, ever allow Sanders to be the nominee.

[Maxwell]

I'm beginning to think Bernie.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

I'm beginning to think Bernie.

Agreed. This is gearing up to be a very anti establishment season and Bush's numbers are sinking while Sanders are rising. For those two reasons I'm giving a slight edge to Sanders. Although I still think Hillary will clench it, I think Sanders has a slight advantage over Jeb when it comes to being nominated.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sanders

[Why]

Bush easily, it is still very early, Trump will disappear, Carson and Fiorina are very unlikely nominees. Rubio is looking stronger at the moment but that could change.
Sanders has no chance of winning the nomination, he has small chance of it being handed to him.

At the moment I see Rubio - Clinton to be the most likely battle, then probably Bush - Clinton.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush

[MisSkeptic]

Too early to tell at the moment. Before, like everyone else did, saw Bush as the clear winner. But with candidates like Trump taking over the polls, it's very hard to tell if Bush has the chance to win his party's nomination.

[/]

Bernaeeeeee

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Republican Party will have to play some very dirty tricks to get Jeb the nomination. So, yeah, probably Jeb.

[heatmaster]

Trump has been shown the door!. He has been "fired!"😉

[Brewer]

Definitely Sanders, and I say this as a Hillary supporter.

[Bigby]

Bornie Sandas.

[Mister Mets]

Jeb.

He's got money, and institutional support. The candidates currently beating him are traditionally weak.

[bobloblaw]

Well given that Sanders is polling at about 2-3x the percent that Bush is, Id say Sanders.


There are still a lot of Bush fans here. Mostly Dems. They will tell you that Yeb is " The only sane one" Never mind that anyone sane wouldnt run if their father and brother had already been president and the brother as a total disaster.

[The Other Castro]

I see a small but possible path to victory for Sanders. I barely see a path to victory for Bush.

[dudeabides]

Bush's biggest problem at this point is Marco Rubio. It could be Carly Fiorina, who is now leading in New Hampshire and tied with Trump in the latest Gravis Marketing poll, but I see Rubio as the bigger obstacle long-term.

Let me also say this, I think I might have underestimated Bush fatigue, time will tell.

Here is a math equation:

Jeb Bush
- Executive Experience
- 20 years
- Being White
= Marco Rubio

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Bush's biggest problem at this point is Marco Rubio. It could be Carly Fiorina, who is now leading in New Hampshire and tied with Trump in the latest Gravis Marketing poll, but I see Rubio as the bigger obstacle long-term.

Let me also say this, I think I might have underestimated Bush fatigue, time will tell.

Here is a math equation:

Jeb Bush
- Executive Experience
- 20 years
- Being White
= Marco Rubio

Just....lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie Sanders, he the unClinton, and the regular Joe, if Biden doesnt get in or if Clinton fails. Alot of Dems dont have the trouble seeing Bernie Sanders as prez as the disunity showed with the Trump and Jeb supporters.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

sanders has around a 10-20% chance of victory at this point imo, ¡yeb! has <1%.

[Oak Hills]

Easily Jeb.  Come on.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bush's biggest problem at this point is Marco Rubio. It could be Carly Fiorina, who is now leading in New Hampshire and tied with Trump in the latest Gravis Marketing poll, but I see Rubio as the bigger obstacle long-term.

Let me also say this, I think I might have underestimated Bush fatigue, time will tell.

Here is a math equation:

Jeb Bush
- Executive Experience
- 20 years
- Being White
= Marco Rubio

Rubio looks like the most likely candidate Establishment Republicans will coalesce around.  And, yes, Bush Fatigue is real.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Easily Jeb.  Come on.

Pretty much. But this will be an interesting experiment.

Jeb retains the mechanics required for the nomination, but the issue would be are those the mechanics you still need to win? I'm not saying this as a Hillary supporter, I think Sanders has a 25-30% of getting the nomination - Bush is closer to 45%, it says something that someone SO weak is still a plurality favourite.

What dudeabides doesn't understand is that Bush is just a BAD candidate. It doesn't matter about his record or whatever policy tangibles you want to list. He's not wowing anyone and he's a shocking salesman.

[eric82oslo]

Bush easily, it is still very early, Trump will disappear, Carson and Fiorina are very unlikely nominees. Rubio is looking stronger at the moment but that could change.
Sanders has no chance of winning the nomination, he has small chance of it being handed to him.

At the moment I see Rubio - Clinton to be the most likely battle, then probably Bush - Clinton.

Agreed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bush is done. Sanders has a chance

Not yet he's not. The GOP race is due for a significant correction between now and the end of the year. It just depends who is primed to capitalise on it. My money's on the one with the connections and money.