Predict the Upper Austrian state election

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction:

36.6% ÖVP (-10.2%)
33.4% FPÖ (+18.1%)
16.2% SPÖ (-8.7%)
  9.8% Greens (+0.6%)
  2.7% NEOS (+2.7%)
  0.8% KPÖ (+0.2%)
  0.5% CPÖ (+0.1%)
  0.0% Others (-2.8%)*

*The BZÖ got 2.8% in 2009, but is not running this year.

Turnout: 81.1% (+0.7%)

MoE = +/- 1%

...

Current polling:

36-40% ÖVP (downward trend)
28-32% FPÖ (upward trend)
17-19% SPÖ (downward trend)
09-11% Greens (slight downward trend)
02-04% NEOS (slight downward trend)
01-02% Others

[DavidB.]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2)
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2)
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0)
Greens 10.6% (+1.4)
NEOS 3.3% (new)
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1)
CPÖ 0.4% (nc)

Turnout 79.5%

[Tender Branson]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2)
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2)
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0)
Greens 10.6% (+1.4)
NEOS 3.3% (new)
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1)
CPÖ 0.4% (nc)

Turnout 79.5%

Why do you think the FPÖ will get less than what the polls say ? Especially in this heated climate.

But we'll see ...

[DavidB.]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2)
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2)
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0)
Greens 10.6% (+1.4)
NEOS 3.3% (new)
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1)
CPÖ 0.4% (nc)

Turnout 79.5%

Why do you think the FPÖ will get less than what the polls say ? Especially in this heated climate.

But we'll see ...

Because not all of their supporters are really going to vote. It is well-known that, at least in many countries, people are much more inclined to say that they are going to vote than that they are really inclined to go and vote. In Dutch polls, 85% say that they will vote. Only 75% do so. And it's especially new-right/far-right parties that have supporters who, out of anti-establishment feelings, will be inclined to say they will vote for such a party, but end up staying at home out of general disillusionment toward politics. But we'll see if this is also the case in this election.

[Tender Branson]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2)
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2)
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0)
Greens 10.6% (+1.4)
NEOS 3.3% (new)
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1)
CPÖ 0.4% (nc)

Turnout 79.5%

Why do you think the FPÖ will get less than what the polls say ? Especially in this heated climate.

But we'll see ...

Because not all of their supporters are really going to vote. It is well-known that, at least in many countries, people are much more inclined to say that they are going to vote than that they are really inclined to go and vote. In Dutch polls, 85% say that they will vote. Only 75% do so. And it's especially new-right/far-right parties that have supporters who, out of anti-establishment feelings, will be inclined to say they will vote for such a party, but end up staying at home out of general disillusionment toward politics. But we'll see if this is also the case in this election.

Unlikely.

If anything, it will be the SPÖVP/NEOS voters who are staying home, but not the FPÖ and Green voters who are more than motivated to vote in this polarizing climate.

SPÖVP are also damaged by the demographic process: Their reliable old voters are dying away, while the new first-time voters are all going for FPÖ, Greens, NEOS.

[DavidB.]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2)
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2)
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0)
Greens 10.6% (+1.4)
NEOS 3.3% (new)
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1)
CPÖ 0.4% (nc)

Turnout 79.5%

Why do you think the FPÖ will get less than what the polls say ? Especially in this heated climate.

But we'll see ...

Because not all of their supporters are really going to vote. It is well-known that, at least in many countries, people are much more inclined to say that they are going to vote than that they are really inclined to go and vote. In Dutch polls, 85% say that they will vote. Only 75% do so. And it's especially new-right/far-right parties that have supporters who, out of anti-establishment feelings, will be inclined to say they will vote for such a party, but end up staying at home out of general disillusionment toward politics. But we'll see if this is also the case in this election.

Unlikely.

If anything, it will be the SPÖVP/NEOS voters who are staying home, but not the FPÖ and Green voters who are more than motivated to vote in this polarizing climate.

SPÖVP are also damaged by the demographic process: Their reliable old voters are dying away, while the new first-time voters are all going for FPÖ, Greens, NEOS.

Young people are less inclined to vote. I'm just outlining an electoral pattern that is prevalent in many Western European countries. I might of course be wrong, and any prediction is just an educated guess, but I don't think the FPÖ underperforming slightly would be a strange prediction.

[Tender Branson]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2)
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2)
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0)
Greens 10.6% (+1.4)
NEOS 3.3% (new)
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1)
CPÖ 0.4% (nc)

Turnout 79.5%

Why do you think the FPÖ will get less than what the polls say ? Especially in this heated climate.

But we'll see ...

Because not all of their supporters are really going to vote. It is well-known that, at least in many countries, people are much more inclined to say that they are going to vote than that they are really inclined to go and vote. In Dutch polls, 85% say that they will vote. Only 75% do so. And it's especially new-right/far-right parties that have supporters who, out of anti-establishment feelings, will be inclined to say they will vote for such a party, but end up staying at home out of general disillusionment toward politics. But we'll see if this is also the case in this election.

Unlikely.

If anything, it will be the SPÖVP/NEOS voters who are staying home, but not the FPÖ and Green voters who are more than motivated to vote in this polarizing climate.

SPÖVP are also damaged by the demographic process: Their reliable old voters are dying away, while the new first-time voters are all going for FPÖ, Greens, NEOS.

Young people are less inclined to vote. I'm just outlining an electoral pattern that is prevalent in many Western European countries. I might of course be wrong, and any prediction is just an educated guess, but I don't think the FPÖ underperforming slightly would be a strange prediction.

Yeah, I know.

Your prediction looks pretty good actually. I just fear that we are going to witness an earthquake on Sunday.

[DC Al Fine]

Lets see:

ÖVP 35%
FPÖ 35%
SPÖ 15%
Greens 10%
NEOS 4%
KPÖ 0.5%
CPÖ 0.5%

Turnout 80%


Going out on a limb here. I think given the refugee crisis, FPO will overperform somewhat.

[SNJ1985]

ÖVP: 35%
FPÖ: 35%
SPÖ: 16%
Greens: 10%
NEOS: 3%
KPÖ: 0.5%
CPÖ: 0.4%

Like DC Al Fine, I'm also guessing that the FPÖ will overperform given the migrant crisis. Obviously, we'll have to wait and see what happens.

[DavidB.]

I hope to be proven wrong. The FPÖ might be terrible, but I love political drama, electoral volatility, and obnoxious establishment parties getting a reality check. And it's not as if anything will change.

[Cranberry]

While I usually hope (as any sane person should) for the ÖVP to get thrown as far away from power as possible, that is not possible without something just as bad / maybe even worse (the FPÖ) coming after it, so this is one of the rare cases in which I hope for the ÖVP to actually not lose that much...

Going to my predictions. Call me either an optimist or a naive-left leftist-Marxist-islamo-fascist-lover, whichever you want to, I'm still not entirely convinced we have that many horrible assholes in our country for the FPÖ to gain that dramatically as apparently believed by some people.

ÖVP - 37%
FPÖ - 30%
SPÖ - 18%
Greens - 10%
NEOS - 3%
Others - 2%

[Tender Branson]

I'm not expecting an FPÖ-victory either (the ÖVP should finish a "good bit" ahead), but never underestimate the protest potential of the Austrian Voter. We have seen 40% in Carinthia and over 30% for FPÖ+TS+BZÖ in Styria (2013), so it's not out of question that the FPÖ reaches 35% on Sunday.

[Cranberry]

I'm not expecting an FPÖ-victory either (the ÖVP should finish a "good bit" ahead), but never underestimate the protest potential of the Austrian Voter. We have seen 40% in Carinthia and over 30% for FPÖ+TS+BZÖ in Styria (2013), so it's not out of question that the FPÖ reaches 35% on Sunday.

Of course it's not at all unlikely, especially not in Upper Austria - on an unrelated note, this boring strip of land that can't really decide if its Western or Eastern Austria, and has on top of that a horrible slight bavarian influence, is actually my second least favourite Austrian state (number one on that ranking should be very obvious).

[politicus]

I'm not expecting an FPÖ-victory either (the ÖVP should finish a "good bit" ahead), but never underestimate the protest potential of the Austrian Voter. We have seen 40% in Carinthia and over 30% for FPÖ+TS+BZÖ in Styria (2013), so it's not out of question that the FPÖ reaches 35% on Sunday.

Of course it's not at all unlikely, especially not in Upper Austria - on an unrelated note, this boring strip of land that can't really decide if its Western or Eastern Austria, and has on top of that a horrible slight bavarian influence, is actually my second least favourite Austrian state (number one on that ranking should be very obvious).

Not to non-Austrians. Vienna? or Kärnten?

[MaxQue]

I'm not expecting an FPÖ-victory either (the ÖVP should finish a "good bit" ahead), but never underestimate the protest potential of the Austrian Voter. We have seen 40% in Carinthia and over 30% for FPÖ+TS+BZÖ in Styria (2013), so it's not out of question that the FPÖ reaches 35% on Sunday.

Of course it's not at all unlikely, especially not in Upper Austria - on an unrelated note, this boring strip of land that can't really decide if its Western or Eastern Austria, and has on top of that a horrible slight bavarian influence, is actually my second least favourite Austrian state (number one on that ranking should be very obvious).

Not to non-Austrians. Vienna? or Kärnten?

Or "backwards" Vorarlberg?

In any case, I predict:

ÖVP 36
FPÖ 34
SPÖ 16
Grüne 10
NEOS 2.9
KPÖ 0.6
CPÖ 0.5

I believe a few people will get cold feet at the last moment and they will return to ÖVP-(Grüne) government, which seems quite popular. Not risking it with a party who never led government.

[Beezer]

ÖVP 36.3%
FPÖ 32.1%
SPÖ 15.8%
Greens 9.2%
NEOS 3.3%
KPÖ 0.7%
CPÖ 0.5%

Turnout 76.7%

[Cranberry]

I'm not expecting an FPÖ-victory either (the ÖVP should finish a "good bit" ahead), but never underestimate the protest potential of the Austrian Voter. We have seen 40% in Carinthia and over 30% for FPÖ+TS+BZÖ in Styria (2013), so it's not out of question that the FPÖ reaches 35% on Sunday.

Of course it's not at all unlikely, especially not in Upper Austria - on an unrelated note, this boring strip of land that can't really decide if its Western or Eastern Austria, and has on top of that a horrible slight bavarian influence, is actually my second least favourite Austrian state (number one on that ranking should be very obvious).

Not to non-Austrians. Vienna? or Kärnten?

Kärnten, yeah. Pretty much anything, from politics to dialects, is hilariously bad down there

Vorarlberg isn't my favourite as well, MaxQue, but I'm from Tirol, so I can't really complain about backward-ness.

[Tender Branson]

In any case, I predict:

ÖVP 36
FPÖ 34
SPÖ 16
Grüne 10
NEOS 2.9
KPÖ 0.6
CPÖ 0.5

I believe a few people will get cold feet at the last moment and they will return to ÖVP-(Grüne) government, which seems quite popular. Not risking it with a party who never led government.

"Stealing" my prediction is not cool ...

[Ban my account ffs!]

I can't make any predictions... but I'd've thought Upper Austria wasn't so conservative! 
It's the equivalent of Arkansas or West Virginia!

[Tender Branson]

I can't make any predictions... but I'd've thought Upper Austria wasn't so conservative! 
It's the equivalent of Arkansas or West Virginia!

Only in state elections.

In federal elections, Upper Austria is Austria's "Ohio".

It always votes almost exactly like the nation as a whole.

[Tender Branson]

I have now added a last-minute poll on top.

You can also predict who WINS the state election tomorrow: ÖVP or FPÖ.

I say it'll be close but the final mobilisation efforts of the ÖVP will pull it out for them.

[Tender Branson]

I've edited my prediction in the OP, so that it's not the same as MaxQue's.

[MaxQue]

In any case, I predict:

ÖVP 36
FPÖ 34
SPÖ 16
Grüne 10
NEOS 2.9
KPÖ 0.6
CPÖ 0.5

I believe a few people will get cold feet at the last moment and they will return to ÖVP-(Grüne) government, which seems quite popular. Not risking it with a party who never led government.

"Stealing" my prediction is not cool ...

Hey, I didn't read your prediction. I checked last polls and followed trends and corrected for last-minute shifts.

Sorry that it ended being the same. If I noticed it was the same, I would have changed it, sorry.

[DavidB.]

Well, let's try this. I think the FPÖ will counter the common "problem" for new-right parties that their supporters are less likely to turn out in second-order elections. On the flipside, ÖVP (old people always vote), Greens (young students vote) and NEOS (young successful people tend to vote) will profit from that.

ÖVP 37.6% (-9.2) 36.4, -1.2
FPÖ 29.5% (+14.2) 30.4, +0.9
SPÖ 17.9% (-7.0) 18.4, +0.5
Greens 10.6% (+1.4) 10.3, -0.3
NEOS 3.3% (new) 3.5, +0.2
KPÖ 0.7% (+0.1) 0.8, +0.1
CPÖ 0.4% (nc) CPÖ, =

Turnout 79.5% Reality: 81.6, +2.1

Not bad. 3.2% wrong in party predictions.