Santorum is toast

[Keystone Phil]

Im still confused as to why Santorum is on the front lines of President Bush's push for partial privatization.  Public support for privatization has hit a major road block.

He really believes in it? I know it's hard to comprehend but some people in Washington still do really believe in what they set out to do.

[Keystone Phil]

He really believes in it? I know it's hard to comprehend but some people in Washington still do really believe in what they set out to do.

Yeah, because we all know Slick Rick isn't into playing politics.

Uh...in regards to the social security idea, he's not doing it for political advantage. It isn't exactly the most popular idea in the state right now.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, have you guys been hit with any TV/Radio Ad's up there in PA, yet?

Nope.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, have you guys been hit with any TV/Radio Ad's up there in PA, yet?

We've gotten AARP stuff in the Northeast. Very few pro-privitization ads though.

Well, we've gotten some social security ads, too, but they have calmed down.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, have you guys been hit with any TV/Radio Ad's up there in PA, yet?

We've gotten AARP stuff in the Northeast. Very few pro-privitization ads though.

Well, we've gotten some social security ads, too, but they have calmed down.

I've seen 12 ads about the fillibuster today.

Yeah, those are the main ads, now. Both sides are running the ads.

[Keystone Phil]

I expect the Libertarians to run a Pro Choice candidate or maybe a stronger than usual Independent.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't care much for the guy.

But its too soon to say he's done.

Casey IMHO, isn't much better, and he won't have near the clout Rick has...

I'm thinking of getting a tri color dart board

Republican-Dem-Libertarian and just throwing a dart at it blind...since all 3 choices are well...crappy.

Who are the Libertarians planning to run? Perhaps they will have a better nominee than the woman who ran against Specter.

Thats part of the problem...the LP doesn't really have anyone...otherwise I'd be pretty settled on voting for them.

Well, since it is unlikely the Constitutionalists will oppose Santorum (and perhaps even Casey) I don't think there will be much choice other than the Libertarians.

Like I said, possibly a strong Independent or even a Green party candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Neither are going to lose.

Just wait until the GOP hits Casey. Because they are-- waiting that is. Why spend your bullets now?

i actually agree with goldie.

casey is just a famous name.  other than that, he is pretty damn weak candidate.

santorum will win, fairly comfortably.

i really dont like either candidate.

You guys don't understand the power of that name in a General election but you know that I hope you're right.

By the way AuH2O, the PA GOP is already hitting Casey atleast once a week.

[Keystone Phil]

What the hell are they going to "hit" Casey on? The man has literally not done one thing controversial his whole career.

Oh I don't know. What's this? His fourth statewide run in six years? How about the fact that he had no intention of running until after the national party begged him?

[Keystone Phil]

What the hell are they going to "hit" Casey on? The man has literally not done one thing controversial his whole career.

Oh I don't know. What's this? His fourth statewide run in six years? How about the fact that he had no intention of running until after the national party begged him?

Nobody cares about any of that stuff except for you.

Actually, fourth statewide run in six years is pretty pathetic. How can you even do that, in a state where elections occur once every two years?

Auditor General (2000) - Won
Dem nomination for Governor (2002) - Lost
State Treasurer (2004) - Won

He won two, lost one. He lost the most important one, but I'm kinda glad Rendell is Governor and not Casey.

You're missing the point. The GOP will make the issue that he ran some many times the main point. Sure he'll say "Well I won" but this will be different. Now people might discover a running for office pattern with Casey.

Also, I am obviously not the only one that cares since it's been discussed as part of the GOP strategy already, genius.

[Keystone Phil]

Nor will Santorum comments three years before.

That would never matter anyway. His approval ratings stayed the same after his comments. If there's one thing PA Dems have to realize, it is this: Santorum hating will not win them this race. SE PA might have it's fair share of Santorum haters but outside of this region, you would never win a race that was just anti-Santorum.

[Keystone Phil]

There is another possibility.  Mclaughlin Group reported a rumor that Spector will resign, due to ill health.  Casey might be appointed.

J.J., why would Rendell want Casey? They have a chance to beat Santorum with Casey and then have a guarenteed appointment pickup. It would make no sense for it to go to Casey. It would be Hafer.

[Keystone Phil]

There is another possibility.  Mclaughlin Group reported a rumor that Spector will resign, due to ill health.  Casey might be appointed.

J.J., why would Rendell want Casey? They have a chance to beat Santorum with Casey and then have a guarenteed appointment pickup. It would make no sense for it to go to Casey. It would be Hafer.

Just reporting a rumor.  Rendell, might look at it as creating a "safe seat" and appealing to conservative Democrats.

I'm not doubting that Specter might resign soon. I just don't see any good reasons for picking Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

There is another possibility.  Mclaughlin Group reported a rumor that Spector will resign, due to ill health.  Casey might be appointed.

J.J., why would Rendell want Casey? They have a chance to beat Santorum with Casey and then have a guarenteed appointment pickup. It would make no sense for it to go to Casey. It would be Hafer.

Just reporting a rumor.  Rendell, might look at it as creating a "safe seat" and appealing to conservative Democrats.

I'm not doubting that Specter might resign soon. I just don't see any good reasons for picking Casey.

It's a safe choice and boosts Rendell with conservative Democrats.

He could also do that with Tim Holden. Then again, the Dems would lose that seat.

[Keystone Phil]

If I were him I'd just appoint Hoeffel.

They're not that close.

[Keystone Phil]

I think there is a distinct possibility Pennsylvania may go from having two Republican senators to two Democrat senators by 2010.

ALLYSON SCHWARTZ 2010!!!!!

You really are crazy if you think she can win. We're not talking about SE PA, Flyers. This is a statewide office. She win not get to the U.S. Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

I think there is a distinct possibility Pennsylvania may go from having two Republican senators to two Democrat senators by 2010.

ALLYSON SCHWARTZ 2010!!!!!

You really are crazy if you think she can win. We're not talking about SE PA, Flyers. This is a statewide office. She win not get to the U.S. Senate.

And neither would Pat Toomey.  I mean come on you REALLY thought if Toomey beat Specter, he would win statewide? 

Yes, I do. Main reason why Toomey didn't beat Specter: Bush and Santorum's support of Specter. If Specter didn't have them, Toomey would have won by about six points.

Statewide in a General, yes, he can win. When it comes down to picking between a conservative like Toomey and a liberal like Schwartz, Toomey wins. Toomey would hammer her on social issues like there's no tomorrow. We'll see this in 2010 when I honestly believe we'll have a Toomey-Schwartz matchup.

[Keystone Phil]

I think there is a distinct possibility Pennsylvania may go from having two Republican senators to two Democrat senators by 2010.

ALLYSON SCHWARTZ 2010!!!!!

You really are crazy if you think she can win. We're not talking about SE PA, Flyers. This is a statewide office. She win not get to the U.S. Senate.

And neither would Pat Toomey.  I mean come on you REALLY thought if Toomey beat Specter, he would win statewide? 

Toomey would hammer her on social issues like there's no tomorrow.

Ask Melissa Brown who did the same thing.  See what happened to her.  Schwartz is a political survivor.  I underestimated her against Joe Torsella AND even voted for him.  I hope Toomey does the same things as Melissa Brown in that case.  He'll get beat!

But this isn't just SE PA, Flyers. We're talking statewide.

Anyway, Brown didn't hit Schwartz on social issues. There was no focus, no message of that campaign. It was a mess. Toomey knows how to put up a fight. He fought the entire GOP establishment including the President and Santorum. He now has a following. He has the power. Schwartz has her money but so will Toomey in 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

Im going to have to agree with keystonePhil (believe it or not) when he says that Schwartz will never be senator.

Thank you. She'd be good for raising money but the GOP will be able to raise a good amount of money against her. Other than fundraising, she'd be a total disaster for the Dems which means I can't wait until you guys nominate her.

[Keystone Phil]

Im going to have to agree with keystonePhil (believe it or not) when he says that Schwartz will never be senator.

Thank you. She'd be good for raising money but the GOP will be able to raise a good amount of money against her. Other than fundraising, she'd be a total disaster for the Dems which means I can't wait until you guys nominate her.

Haha, phil. I'll do everything in my power to ensure that Schwartz doesn't win that nomination. As of this moment, i'm endorsing MY representive, Tim Holden, for the spot, despite his many conservative views.

Now there's a PA Democrat that I wouldn't mind to see as Senator. Sure I'd support Toomey or another conservative Republican in 2010 but Holden would be ok in my book. However, I really don't see him running for the seat.

[Keystone Phil]

That would be really good. I'd like to see Hafer in the senate. I don't know if its possible, but i think it would more fair for Rendell to hold a special election, i know that it wouldn't happen whether he could or not, but the way i see it, like it or not (which i dont), the people of PA elected a republican to the senate. I dont think its fair for Rendell to just say, "Well, you voted in a Rep., but too bad, you're now represented by a Dem." That is simply not fair to the people.

A special election would be necessary and Hafer would lose.

[Keystone Phil]

I apoligize to Phil if he's already answered this.

You talk about Toomey hitting Schwartz with social issues and how it would result in a Toomey win, yet that was basically what happened in 2004, Bush hitting Kerry on social issues, yet Kerry won PA. How is Toomey better than Bush and Schwartz worse than Kerry?

I've explained the Kerry win so many times. It boils down to partisanship when it comes to national races.

[Keystone Phil]

IHe seems to be a man with a good head on his shoulders.

You have some very bad judgement, my friend.

Santorum is a right wing-nut who is owned by corporate special interests, hence the recent weather service legislation and Zippo lighter amendment, as well as trying to do away with overtime pay and minimum wage laws.

Santorum is a prime example of everything wrong with our current crop of politicans.

  You're so informed, aren't you? Did you know that Santorum tried to raise the minimum wage or are you really that ignorant?

[Keystone Phil]

I apoligize to Phil if he's already answered this.

You talk about Toomey hitting Schwartz with social issues and how it would result in a Toomey win, yet that was basically what happened in 2004, Bush hitting Kerry on social issues, yet Kerry won PA. How is Toomey better than Bush and Schwartz worse than Kerry?

I've explained the Kerry win so many times. It boils down to partisanship when it comes to national races.

Hold on there just one second.  Pennsylvania has NEVER had a clearly partisan test with two strong candidates running for Senate.  For the most part since the 1960s, we've had moderate Republicans running with the exception of Rick Santorum.  In the latter case, he sneaks in due to weak candidates, lack of name rec and lack of pro-choice interest for the Democrat.  That's why Santorum won Montco.  2000 was 2 anti-choicers with a dud Democrat and an extreme Republican who came off as a moderate.  2004 was 2 pro-choicers with Specter amassing a huge incumbent advantage and labor support.  Hmm, I'm not following here Phil.  I think we could very easily match Schwartz, Hafer, or Hoeffel with Toomey and come out on top statewide.         

What don't you get? You keep bringing up Klink in 2000. Yeah the Pro Choice community didn't have their candidate (Schwartz) but Klink was more in line with the Dems of this state and still lost! If it wasn't partisanship for the national level, the GOP would win easily. We have dominance in the State Legislature, a majority of the members of the PA U.S. House delegation are Republicans, two Republican U.S. Senators. You guys have Governor, State Treasurer and State Auditor. How can you say that it's not partisanship when it comes to national races?

Throw Hoeffel against Toomey and he has a chance. Throw Hafer or Schwartz against Toomey and Toomey will take it by about five or six points.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait until a bad election for your side, BRTD. Just wait...