Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[jmlv]

I think that the one one of the three nations ehere nationalism is almost entirely lefty is Galicia. Surely not the lib-con PNV or CIU

[DavidB.]

Interesting contribution, Gren, thanks!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/basque-country-head-wants-referendum-ties-spain-203812576.html

Is this posturing?

[Bacon King]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/basque-country-head-wants-referendum-ties-spain-203812576.html

Is this posturing?

Will the last Autonomico to leave Spain please turn out the lights

[Velasco]

Continuing with my point about social class, it is funny how the Spanish left has tried to link the Independence movement with the "elite" and the "Catalan bourgeoisie" in order to make it seem detached from the needs of the average citizen. Actually, the true elite in Catalunya is heavily against Independence. Agreed, CiU got a lot of the support of the Catalan establishment and upper classes, but so did the PP and, more recently, C's. However, with CiU now defunct as a coalition and CDC's clearly pro-Independence stance, the wealthy elites have abandoned Artur Mas. This seems clear to me when looking at the results in the quintessential neighbourhoods of the Catalan establishment: in Pedralbes and Tres Torres, the wealthiest quarters in Barcelona and probably in the Top 10 of Spain, JxS has badly underperformed CiU+ERC+SI (Solidaritat Catalana per la Independencia) 2012 votes, garnering around 12 percentage points less, which haven't gone to CUP (which is almost non-existent there), but to the moderate and ambiguous Unió, which breaks 10% in many of these precincts (it didn't get to even 3% in the whole of Catalunya). So don't trust anyone who says that Independence is an "elite movement"; it is essentially a movement of middle class professionals, salaried workers, small businessmen and qualified workers. The elites in Catalunya, as everywhere, are perfectly content with the status quo.

I don't know if the Spanish left tries to make a point equating separatism with economic elites. In that case, that's not entirely accurate. Big elites everywhere tend to safeguard their financial interests, although you cannot discard that certain elements might be driven by, say 'patriotic', considerations.  As you say, the bulk of the support for separatism is in the catalanista middle class, which has shifted towards pro-independence stances for a number of reasons. I won't go into discussion on the 'ethnic' argument you provide. Jordi Pujol said once that everybody who resides in Catalonia is Catalan, while the CUP has been active in lobbying low income Castilian-speakers and foreign immigrants because they know that they need them in order to build a separatist majority. Let's say that people with several generations of ancestors born in Catalonia is more supportive of independence. Coming back to the elites, the results in neighbourhoods like Pedralbes and Tres Torres are not surprising at all. Those places have always supported massively conservative parties like CiU and PP. It's not strange the level of support for the UDC, which is a party in the middle of PP and CDC on the national axis and quite conservative on social and economic issues, with ties to elites and entrepeneurs. Matadepera and Sant Cugat in the Metro region are very affluent, by the way. To be precise, Matadepera is on top in the ranking of wealthiest municipalities of Spain and Sant Cugat is placed third. Other Catalan municipalities appearing in that ranking: Teià, Cabrils, Alella, Sant Andreu de Llavaneres, Premià de Dalt, Tiana, L'Ametlla del Vallès, Sitges, Sant Quirze...

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vangdata/20150520/54431341415/ranking-municipios-ricos-pobres-espana.html

[Velasco]

Vote share by comarca ('county') for the lists that have obtained representation in the Parliament of Catalonia.

[Nanwe]

Really nice work, from the looks of it, the only comarca where JxS didn't win was the Val d'Aran?

[Velasco]

Really nice work, from the looks of it, the only comarca where JxS didn't win was the Val d'Aran?

Not really, but it came close. Aran was the comarca with lowest result for JxSí, it recorded the second highest for C's (the best for them was Tarragonès) and it was also the best for PSC and PP. Results from La Generalitat website:

JxSí   1.207 votes   24,72%         
C's   1.182 votes   24,21%   
PSC      958 votes   19,62%   
PP      623 votes   12,76%   
CUP      309 votes   6,33%   
CSP      259 votes   5,30%         
UDC      249 votes   5,10%      

[Gren]

Well allow me to say that Convergencia looks very elite to me

Well, the party itself may look elitist, but I think that it is clear that JxS (of which Convergencia is now part) isn't the party of choice of the true Catalan establishment. CiU might have been in the past, but now that's gone, mainly to the benefit of C's and Unió.

Continuing with my point about social class, it is funny how the Spanish left has tried to link the Independence movement with the "elite" and the "Catalan bourgeoisie" in order to make it seem detached from the needs of the average citizen. Actually, the true elite in Catalunya is heavily against Independence. Agreed, CiU got a lot of the support of the Catalan establishment and upper classes, but so did the PP and, more recently, C's. However, with CiU now defunct as a coalition and CDC's clearly pro-Independence stance, the wealthy elites have abandoned Artur Mas. This seems clear to me when looking at the results in the quintessential neighbourhoods of the Catalan establishment: in Pedralbes and Tres Torres, the wealthiest quarters in Barcelona and probably in the Top 10 of Spain, JxS has badly underperformed CiU+ERC+SI (Solidaritat Catalana per la Independencia) 2012 votes, garnering around 12 percentage points less, which haven't gone to CUP (which is almost non-existent there), but to the moderate and ambiguous Unió, which breaks 10% in many of these precincts (it didn't get to even 3% in the whole of Catalunya). So don't trust anyone who says that Independence is an "elite movement"; it is essentially a movement of middle class professionals, salaried workers, small businessmen and qualified workers. The elites in Catalunya, as everywhere, are perfectly content with the status quo.

I don't know if the Spanish left tries to make a point equating separatism with economic elites. In that case, that's not entirely accurate. Big elites everywhere tend to safeguard their financial interests, although you cannot discard that certain elements might be driven by, say 'patriotic', considerations.  As you say, the bulk of the support for separatism is in the catalanista middle class, which has shifted towards pro-independence stances for a number of reasons. I won't go into discussion on the 'ethnic' argument you provide. Jordi Pujol said once that everybody who resides in Catalonia is Catalan, while the CUP has been active in lobbying low income Castilian-speakers and foreign immigrants because they know that they need them in order to build a separatist majority. Let's say that people with several generations of ancestors born in Catalonia is more supportive of independence. Coming back to the elites, the results in neighbourhoods like Pedralbes and Tres Torres are not surprising at all. Those places have always supported massively conservative parties like CiU and PP. It's not strange the level of support for the UDC, which is a party in the middle of PP and CDC on the national axis and quite conservative on social and economic issues, with ties to elites and entrepeneurs. Matadepera and Sant Cugat in the Metro region are very affluent, by the way. To be precise, Matadepera is on top in the ranking of wealthiest municipalities of Spain and Sant Cugat is placed third. Other Catalan municipalities appearing in that ranking: Teià, Cabrils, Alella, Sant Andreu de Llavaneres, Premià de Dalt, Tiana, L'Ametlla del Vallès, Sitges, Sant Quirze...

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vangdata/20150520/54431341415/ranking-municipios-ricos-pobres-espana.html

I broadly agree with your contribution. In any case, I don't want to be misunderstood; I wasn't suggesting that Catalans of Spanish descent aren't true Catalans. I was just pointing out that such voters are less likely to support Independence, something that is backed up by extensive evidence. Of course, the divide is far from being as deep as in Northern Ireland, where being of British descent (and Protestant) equates with being unionist in the overwhelming majority of the cases.

You're right about the fact that JxS polled very well in many affluent suburbs. I did point it out in my original post. Anyway, I think the type of wealth differs greatly from Pedralbes and Tres Torres to Sant Cugat and Matadepera. The former areas are home to the true bourgeoisie (with ties to the highest financial and economic spheres), whereas the latter are probably more of a upper-middle class or "petite bourgeoisie" type. I believe this is a crucial factor when understanding the different sets of results across areas that may seem demographically similar. In spite of what many people claim, the real elite or upper bourgeoisie is (generally speaking) not supportive of nationalism/separatism. This is true in both Catalonia and the Basque Country, and it is not just about economic interest, although this plays an important part as well. What many people don't know (or deliberately fail to mention) is that many of the families that make up the highest ranks of society had close ties with Franco's regime, and by and large, their symphaties still lie with an ideology that is antithetical to what Basque or Catalan nationalism spouses.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/basque-country-head-wants-referendum-ties-spain-203812576.html

Is this posturing?

Will the last Autonomico to leave Spain please turn out the lights

Being Basque myself, I would really welcome any move by the Basque government which followed the steps of what Artur Mas has done in Catalunya. However, I must say that I currently see little appetite, both in social and political terms, for such a move to take place. The situation in the Basque Country differs greatly from the situation in Catalunya, so there's little point in comparing both. Whereas a big part of the Catalan society has been very active and mobilized in recent years, this has sadly not been replicated in the Basque Country. This is mainly because decisions made by the judicial/political establishment in Madrid (regarding the "Estatut", the fiscal imbalance, the teaching of Catalan in schools and so on) have served as a wake-up call for the people of Catalunya to become engaged and fight for Independence. There hasn't been any major decision that has affected the Basque Country in the same way, and being already quite autonomous, most people are more or less satisfied with the status quo and are wary of any change. Nevertheless, and I feel optimistic about this, future events could bring this calm to an abrupt end. I am referring of course to the political developments following the general elections in Spain this winter, which have the potential to alter everything that seems settled. If either the PP or the PSOE reach an agreement with C's (which looks likely) in order to form a government, part of that deal could involve getting rid of (or watering down) the especial status enjoyed by the Basque Country. This would lead people in the Basque Country to rise in arms (metaphorically, of course) against the central goverment and spark the creation of strong a separatist movement. I'm just speculating, but anyway, interesting times are ahead and coming soon.

[Velasco]

I broadly agree with your contribution. In any case, I don't want to be misunderstood; I wasn't suggesting that Catalans of Spanish descent aren't true Catalans. I was just pointing out that such voters are less likely to support Independence, something that is backed up by extensive evidence. Of course, the divide is far from being as deep as in Northern Ireland, where being of British descent (and Protestant) equates with being unionist in the overwhelming majority of the cases.

You're right about the fact that JxS polled very well in many affluent suburbs. I did point it out in my original post. Anyway, I think the type of wealth differs greatly from Pedralbes and Tres Torres to Sant Cugat and Matadepera. The former areas are home to the true bourgeoisie (with ties to the highest financial and economic spheres), whereas the latter are probably more of a upper-middle class or "petite bourgeoisie" type. I believe this is a crucial factor when understanding the different sets of results across areas that may seem demographically similar. In spite of what many people claim, the real elite or upper bourgeoisie is (generally speaking) not supportive of nationalism/separatism. This is true in both Catalonia and the Basque Country, and it is not just about economic interest, although this plays an important part as well. What many people don't know (or deliberately fail to mention) is that many of the families that make up the highest ranks of society had close ties with Franco's regime, and by and large, their symphaties still lie with an ideology that is antithetical to what Basque or Catalan nationalism spouses.

OK. It's normal that people most closely connected with other regions of Spain is less supportive of independence. Those maps from vilaweb show eloquently how parties performed in certain depressed areas in the Barcelona Metro Region, in middle class neighbourhoods like Sants or Gràcia or in affluent places like Sant Cugat or Matadepera. As you say, the latter have a slightly different sociological nature from the quintessential elite neighbourhoods of Pedralbes and Tres Torres. As for the ties between Catalan elites and the Franco regime, that is a thorny issue. Aside certain elements you mention, I suspect that other elements of the traditional Catalan bourgeoisie -where people like Jordi Pujol comes from: the botiguers and such-, lived more comfortably under Franco than their heirs would like to admit in these days, in spite of the fierce anti-Catalan stance of the regime. Furthermore, very important and revered people in Catalan culture like Josep Pla had certain sympathy for that man from El Ferrol (formerly del Caudillo). In any case, the catalanismo was a key actor in the opposition to Franco. I'm just saying that, in my opinion, the last part in your comment is a bit of a simplification.

[Gren]

I broadly agree with your contribution. In any case, I don't want to be misunderstood; I wasn't suggesting that Catalans of Spanish descent aren't true Catalans. I was just pointing out that such voters are less likely to support Independence, something that is backed up by extensive evidence. Of course, the divide is far from being as deep as in Northern Ireland, where being of British descent (and Protestant) equates with being unionist in the overwhelming majority of the cases.

You're right about the fact that JxS polled very well in many affluent suburbs. I did point it out in my original post. Anyway, I think the type of wealth differs greatly from Pedralbes and Tres Torres to Sant Cugat and Matadepera. The former areas are home to the true bourgeoisie (with ties to the highest financial and economic spheres), whereas the latter are probably more of a upper-middle class or "petite bourgeoisie" type. I believe this is a crucial factor when understanding the different sets of results across areas that may seem demographically similar. In spite of what many people claim, the real elite or upper bourgeoisie is (generally speaking) not supportive of nationalism/separatism. This is true in both Catalonia and the Basque Country, and it is not just about economic interest, although this plays an important part as well. What many people don't know (or deliberately fail to mention) is that many of the families that make up the highest ranks of society had close ties with Franco's regime, and by and large, their symphaties still lie with an ideology that is antithetical to what Basque or Catalan nationalism spouses.

OK. It's normal that people most closely connected with other regions of Spain is less supportive of independence. Those maps from vilaweb show eloquently how parties performed in certain depressed areas in the Barcelona Metro Region, in middle class neighbourhoods like Sants or Gràcia or in affluent places like Sant Cugat or Matadepera. As you say, the latter have a slightly different sociological nature from the quintessential elite neighbourhoods of Pedralbes and Tres Torres. As for the ties between Catalan elites and the Franco regime, that is a thorny issue. Aside certain elements you mention, I suspect that other elements of the traditional Catalan bourgeoisie -where people like Jordi Pujol comes from: the botiguers and such-, lived more comfortably under Franco than their heirs would like to admit in these days, in spite of the fierce anti-Catalan stance of the regime. Furthermore, very important and revered people in Catalan culture like Josep Pla had certain sympathy for that man from El Ferrol (formerly del Caudillo). In any case, the catalanismo was a key actor in the opposition to Franco. I'm just saying that, in my opinion, the last part in your comment is a bit of a simplification.

You're absolutely right, the relationship between the bourgeoisie and Franco's regime is far more nuanced and complex than that. However, I still think my overall point was mostly accurate: the Spanish upper bourgeoisie has always been very close to the national right-wing, be it in Madrid's Barrio de Salamanca, Barcelona's Pedralbes or Neguri in the Basque Country.

[Velasco]

"The Rural/Urban Divide in Catalonia's 2015 election"

http://www.geocurrents.info/geopolitics/autonomous-zones/the-ruralurban-divide-in-catalonias-2015-election