Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[Velasco]

Some parties, like Catalunya si que es Pot and PSC try to discuss other politics

Yes. Furthermore, PSC candidate Miquel Iceta tries to dance to Donna Summer, Michael Jackson and Queen tunes! My personal appreciation of him has risen since I know about his passion for dancing and shaking hips. I'm speaking in all seriousness: those who criticise Iceta for dancing in this "transcendent moment" are a bunch of idiots, IMO.

http://www.eldiario.es/rastreador/VIDEO-Iceta-Queen-Michael-Jackson_6_433666641.html

[jmlv]

Yes I support Iceta dancing freely. But also Pablo Iglesias singing in Indian way.

[jmlv]

Unfortunately it does not have subtitles in English but this video of Pablo Iglesias in the campaign is great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7_oTiLqw_0

[Niemeyerite]

Unfortunately it does not have subtitles in English but this video of Pablo Iglesias in the campaign is great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7_oTiLqw_0

What an idiot. And to think I once liked this guy...

And yes, I love Iceta and his dances.

Anyway, even if I love Iceta, hate Iglesias and don't trust Rabell (the man says he voted "Yes-Yes" on independence a year ago to send the message that he's a Federalist, when he could've voted "Yes-No" in the unofficial plebiscite), I suppose my vote would go for Catalunya Sí que Es Pot. After leaving the PSOE, I promised myself I wouldn't support them again as long as Pedro Sánchez were leader and the party didn't change... I managed not to vote for Gabilondo (that was difficult), but Iceta is by far the best candidate. Aaaawww.

[jmlv]

Beyond the singing, I think Pablo Iglesias is leaving a quite clear message:

- Rajoy and Mas represent the same: austerity and right-wing measures in economy
- Mas is interested in polarizing the debate on independence/independence without saying anything about his questionable government
- Albert Rivera supports the same as Rajoy and Mas in economy

In sum, he tries to break the independence topic with social/economic issues. So far the coalition does not seem sucessful, but I think the candidate, Rabell, is not very charismatic.

[Velasco]

Beyond the singing, I think Pablo Iglesias is leaving a quite clear message:
In sum, he tries to break the independence topic with social/economic issues. So far the coalition does not seem sucessful, but I think the candidate, Rabell, is not very charismatic.

It's true that Lluis Rabell is far from being a charismatic leader. However, I'm sure there are more reasons for the apparent lack of success of the CSP. To begin with, ICV and Podemos tried to replicate the model of Barcelona en Comú in the whole Catalonia, but firstly they failed to recruit Procés Constituent leader Arcadi Oliveres. Procés, a left-wing social movement with a remarkable pro-independence leaning that was part of BComú and other "popular unity lists" in Catalonia, rejected to join CSP. Subsequently, Mayoress Ada Colau and other BComú leaders haven't been campaigning for CSP, saying that they represent a broader local coalition with elements that are not favourable to the list topped by former neighbourhood representative Lluis Rabell. Furthermore, since the local elections campaign it was clear that Ada Colau adopted a distant stance towards ICV, which the latter regretted given that they put financial resources and party infrastructure at the disposal of BComú. On the other hand, there must be other factors such as the polarisation on the 'national axis' and the slight Podemos decline in the polls.

[Nanwe]

Well, I think I have made in the past my opinion clear on this, if I were Catalan I'd vote Ciutadans, and not just because of Arrimadas' overall gorgeousness. One of the issues with Catalonia and Spain in general as that we lack a common project to make people enthusiastic about their Spanish identity or a sense of belonging beyond a patria chica. Personally, I think Podemos provides that, but I simply don't agree with them, so since I don't trust the PSOE to deliver (I like it now better than with Rubalcaba but still), I'll incline towards C's also in the general elections.

In any case, El Español made, as usual, some really useful analysis of the polls to find a median per constituency (note: since in Catalonia changing the electoral law requires 2/3 of the Parlament and there's never been an agreement, the electoral law is the same one used in 1980 and indeed I think it's still the same seat distribution, so it's malapportioned and by favouring Geron and Lérida, it also favour nationalist parties).

Overall picture:



Possible majorities (seats and votes)





Note: Y axis = percentage of polls analysed in which they obtain x result. X axis = nº of seats

Seat distribution in Barcelona (85 seats)



Seat distribution in Tarragona (18 seats)



Seat distribution in Girona (17 seats)



Seat distribution in Lleida (15 seats)

[jmlv]

Ciutdadans is a clear right wing party in economy. Beyond the independence. Axis, one would have to couple with clearly far liberaleconomic policies.

[Nanwe]

Ciutdadans is a clear right wing party in economy. Beyond the independence. Axis, one would have to couple with clearly far liberaleconomic policies.

So? I am a social-liberal after all

As to say they are far-liberal, that seems extreme. I've read some of Garicano's books and I find myself generally agreeing with him, maybe not a 100% but even so, no one agrees a 100% with any party.

The poll itself, what do you guys think? Is it accurate? Or maybe we could see some last-minute mobilisation of either side?

[jmlv]

I would not call them social-liberal. They are just liberal or far liberal. Being extreme is allowed but that does not make a policy less "extreme". Garicano is pretty much agreeing with Thatchers ideology. Whether thats extreme or not, its a matter of taste, but it is certainly far-liberal.

More moderate seems UPyD, but that party is now declining.

About the polls, I am not sure. I think that PSC can be in the end ahead of Catalunya Si que es Pot. Ciutdadans seems clearly second. CUP will get more than what the polls say, i think.

[Nanwe]

I would not call them social-liberal. They are just liberal or far liberal. Being extreme is allowed but that does not make a policy less "extreme". Garicano is pretty much agreeing with Thatchers ideology. Whether thats extreme or not, its a matter of taste, but it is certainly far-liberal.

I know, I called myself social liberal But yes, they are indeed a liberal party, which is still better than a liberal-conservative party for all I care and as I said, although I could bring myself to vote PSOE I do not believe them at all.

And being extreme is nothing good xd. The Spanish economy suffers from some clear deficiencies. Firstly is this cult of the Pymes. Pymes are a terrible way of creating employment: They provide low salaries, inflexible employment and have difficulties adjusting to market changes, unless they find niches where to become industrialised. Since we haven't managed the Venetian town-based hyper-specialised model of pymes, we should seek to help pout pymes to become larger companies. The economy is filled with utterly ridiculous licensing that only serves to hinder opportunity, because while I can understand why there is a Colegio de Médicos or a Colegio de Abogados, I'm not sure what's the point of having similar structures in many other jobs.

I don't agree with Ciudadanos regarding healthcare, because atm I live in a country where I have to pay a health insurance by law and I am not terribly happy with some things associated with the whole model. And well, you know education policies, they are just buzz words, I am yet to see a party structure a proper good proposal for a coherent educative plan beyond "flexible", "teach them to be good workers" or "no cuts", "smaller classes". They are all good ideas but none of them address anything deeper.

More moderate seems UPyD, but that party is now declining.

If Herzog obtains 1-2 seats, maybe they'll survive but atm, they are a dead man walking.

About the polls, I am not sure. I think that PSC can be in the end ahead of Catalunya Si que es Pot. Ciutdadans seems clearly second. CUP will get more than what the polls say, i think.

Honestly, I really hope you're wrong. The lower the result of JxS and of the CUP, the better. At least it seems that regarding the UDI, the CUP is more sensible than Mas & co. That's so sad.

[Velasco]

I don't agree with many of Garicano's stances, but the man is clearly competent. I have occasionally lurked into his blog, and I don't think he's a text book neoliberal. Let's say C's on the centre-right in economy (meh). Candidate Inés Arrimadas is indeed good-looking (remember that C's leader Albert Rivera used his sex-appeal in past campaigns), but that's of course irrelevant (or maybe not). If I were Catalan, I'd find myself in no man's land. Given my ideological leanings and that my stances on the 'big issue' are somewhere between the PSC and the CSP, I'd be hesitating between both. Like Julio, I despise Pedro Sánchez and find Pablo Iglesias' arrogance increasingly pushy. Catalan secessionists are ridiculous and PP represents a post-Francoist awfulness (add to this Rajoy's absolute lack of empathy). What is left over in this wasteland? Miquel Iceta and his happy dances (¡Iceta lo peta!). Like him, I believe that Catalonia and Spain must dance together. On the other hand, I know that the socialist federal project is very inconsistent. Podemos lacks one, beyond supporting the "right to decide". Such concept is equivalent to "right to self-determination" and sounds like a dialectical victory of secession supporters. Obviously self-determination is not applicable in Catalonia, but I support a referendum on independence under negotiated terms (neither PSOE nor C's are in that position, not to mention PP). In my opinion, we need serious constitutional reforms and a legal framework for situations like this (something like the Canada's Clarity Act), but I digress... 

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Did someone metion that changing the Catalan Statute and the electoral law require more votes than proclaiming the UDI in the Parliament of Catalonia? In the 2012 election malapportionment placed ERC as second parliamentary force being the third party in popular vote, at the expense of PSC (second in popular vote). Oriol Junqueras became in the official leader of the parliamentary opposition.

As for the analysis, I guess it's OK. I posted one from that Pedro J site (by Kiko Llaneras, I believe) before local elections. It was based on average polling and polls failed to predict the whole extent of Ahora Madrid and BComú surges. I don't think this is going to happen with Catalunya Si que es Pot, that's obvious. In any case, I'm unable to predict if the mass of undecided voters is going to mobilise and decide the election in one way or another. As Enric Juliana wrote in La Vanguardia a day after La Diada, the undecided (the 'silent majority') is far from being an homogeneous social body.

[jmlv]

Iceta, I think he is a good politician. But the PSC has been too ambiguous in the last years regarding almost everything.

Catalunya si que es Port: I like the original idea, but I think the candidate is not the best one and their campaign seems faded.

CUP is doing a very coherent campaign, if one is independentist.

[jmlv]

I was just reflecting something: If you are independentist from Esquerra Republicana, that is, you ae left-wing, why not voting CUP, thus avoiding Mas?

I wonder if some voters can make the same reflection and some former voters of ERC will vote now to CUP.

[Velasco]

Iceta, I think he is a good politician. But the PSC has been too ambiguous in the last years regarding almost everything.

Catalunya si que es Port: I like the original idea, but I think the candidate is not the best one and their campaign seems faded.

CUP is doing a very coherent campaign, if one is independentist.

It's clear that the main handicap of the Catalan Socialists is their ambiguity. PSC has been stricken from various sides. Firstly, political infighting provoked by the divisions caused by the 'process'. Much of the PSC's Catalanist faction is now in the ERC environs. Secondly, differences between PSC and PSOE on the territorial model and calling a referendum in Catalonia. Nowadays there's an apparent good tune between Miquel Iceta and Pedro Sánchez, but it's highly dubious the differences on the Catalan question are completely solved between the sister parties. Lack of clear definition is the natural consequence of all this.

Catalunya Si que es Pot is not lacking of inconsistency, but at least the coalition components have a common stance on the "right to decide", that is their lowest common denominator on the 'big issue'.

Indeed, the CUP people is far more consistent in their stances than the colorful sample of leftists in the JPS: Oriol Junqueras and ERC, the proxy candidate Raül Romeva (formerly in ICV), Carme Forcadell (formerly in ERC), Muriel Casals (formerly in ICV), people coming from PSC or songwriter Lluis Llach (top candidate in Girona).

In Barcelona local elections, the CUP already made inroads in certain left-leaning middle-class radicalised Catalanist sectors; those whom can't stand neoliberal Artur Mas. Further transfers are not inconceivable, even though polls indicate that the CUP is on the same level of support reached in May elections. Obviously Junts pel Sí has been carefully avoiding other issues than independence. They have the advantage of being the useful option for secessionists and count with the support of powerful and well-organised civic associations (mostly ANC and Ómnium). We'll see. 

[jmlv]

And what about UDC? They really seem out of place. No more Ritz for Duran i Lleida.

[Velasco]

And what about UDC? They really seem out of place. No more Ritz for Duran i Lleida.

Polls say they're in the margins of survival. If UDC gets 3% in Barcelona province, the threshold to win seats in the Parliament of Catalonia, the Duran i Lleida party is still alive. Otherwise, they are dead. Personally I would prefer they get in, because that would suppose a weaker secessionist majority. On the other hand, it wouldn't be a great pity: Duran i Lleida's UDC is as corrupt as Artur Mas and Jordi Pujol's CDC.

[Velasco]

Interview with Podemos 'indian chief' Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/24/inenglish/1443088078_061646.html

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Mariano Rajoy faces some problems in a campaign tour:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/23/inenglish/1442993930_694475.html

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[jmlv]

According to a TV programme, the polls (which are still being done but not published) suggest that UDC can survive and get in.

[Nanwe]

Yes, maybe in Barcelona, but they are led by Espaldaler (is that his name?) who I don't believe it's terribly charismatic so even if they gains seats (what, 3?), I'm not sure they have much of a future beyond that unless a large section of the traditional voters of CiU who are Catalanists who ar enot very radical (the powerful upper bourgeois families and such) might switch again to UDC. But for now, it seems unlikely.

But it's such a ed up scenario in any case, these elections are not going to solve anything.

Also, Iglesias' answer regarding the referendum is so terribly uninspiring.

[jmlv]

I am not sure uninspiring...I think he is fairly clear: he is not in favor of independence but referendum is OK. Not very different from the British approach to Scotland.

[Velasco]

According to a TV programme, the polls (which are still being done but not published) suggest that UDC can survive and get in.

You forget there's a Catalan country called Andorra. You know, that singular anachronism plenty of duty free shops. El Periodic d'Andorra will release a GESOP poll, so stay tuned.

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/46528/el-periodic-dandorra-publicara-dema-lenquesta-electoral-del-27s

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[Nanwe]

I am not sure uninspiring...I think he is fairly clear: he is not in favor of independence but referendum is OK. Not very different from the British approach to Scotland.

Los vasos son vasos y los platos, platos. He is clear, although he seems unable to say that in a clear-cut way. But what is uninspiring is his message. Instead of trying to create an appealing narrative, he gives in to the nationalists (as the left tends to do, probably a result from the Francoism and the difficulties in admitting anything towards Spain) and then he still fails to show an intersting project beyond 'let's kick Rajoy out'. The issue here is that besides their capacity to mobilise people, the nationalism has created (an absolutely false) appealing narrative. Unionism needs to do the same with regards to Spain.

The right is too link to Francoism to try and understand Spain in a different manner and the left lends itself to borrow the awful language of nationalism like referring to España as Estado español.

[Velasco]

I agree partially with you, Nanwe, especially on the need of an "appealing narrative". I would add appealing Catalans imply an emotional approach, miles away from the void legalism wielded by the so-called 'unionists'. In other words: we, in the rest of Spain, need to be more empathic. You are right in saying that the Spanish right has not broken completely with Franco, while a certain left seems to be embarrassed with the word "Spain" -less now than before, see Pedro Sánchez and his big flag; or, believe it or not, the very Pablo Iglesias-. As for borrowed concepts -it is indeed a fault usual in the Spanish left- consider the word "Unionist". It's important, because certain secessionist narrative encourages a simplistic division in two camps:  a "fascist unionism" vs separatism, which of course aims to free peripheral peoples from the Spanish oppression. The very word is another dialectical point scored by separatists and hides a reality: there's not a single concept of Spain. At least, people in the left who is not separatist is often more prepared to admit that Spain is not an univocal reality. While I regret Pablo Iglesias' vagueness in a number of issues -including what kind of territorial model supports Podemos- he's absolutely right stressing things like this:

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I hate the expression "Spanish State" -it was used by Franco, btw-, but Iglesias is right in saying that Catalonia is "a different country" in many regards. Miquel Iceta, on the other hand, says that he wants Catalonia being recognised as a "nation" in the Spanish constitution. Why the idea of admitting diversity, and even the existence of countries or nations within Spain, is so difficult to accept for so many people?     

[politicus]

@andi: Apart from it being a wealthy net contributing region (which is of course important), what is the point of trying to keep Catalonia in Spain? They aren't really Spaniards in any meaningful sense (and will probably eventually leave anyway), wouldn't it be better just to divorce now in an amiable way and then cooperate based on two different, but kindred nations?