Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[Velasco]

@andi: Apart from it being a wealthy net contributing region (which is of course important), what is the point of trying to keep Catalonia in Spain? They aren't really Spaniards in any meaningful sense (and will probably eventually leave anyway), wouldn't it be better just to divorce now in an amiable way and then cooperate based on two different, but kindred nations?

My opinion is that the sentence in bold letters is false from several points of view. You should make clear what means being Spaniard in your view, or at least consider what is the origin of Spain as political entity.

Said this, I don't think the political entities called "nation-states" are built to last forever.

[politicus]

@andi: Apart from it being a wealthy net contributing region (which is of course important), what is the point of trying to keep Catalonia in Spain? They aren't really Spaniards in any meaningful sense (and will probably eventually leave anyway), wouldn't it be better just to divorce now in an amiable way and then cooperate based on two different, but kindred nations?

My opinion is that the sentence in bold letters is false from several points of view. You should make clear what means being Spaniard in your view, or at least consider what is the origin of Spain as political entity.

Said this, I don't think the political entities called "nation-states" are built to last forever.

I was more interested in hearing your reasons than entering into a long discussion of definitions (which is always tiresome and unproductive).

I am familiar with the formation of the Spanish state, but fail to see the idea in clinging on to the non-Castillian speaking parts of it (well, at least Catalonia and the Basque provinces) from a non-Conservative POV. It gives a better tax base, but seems only to offer a constant derail from progressive causes.

[Velasco]

If you make round statements like "Catalans are not Spaniards in any meaningful sense" and such, I don't know what do you expect. At the very least that's ignoring a complex reality existing in that society, which involves an intricate web of senses of belonging. Of course -and I can check polls for you- there are Catalans whom say they're not Spaniards at all, others say "more Catalans than Spaniards", others the same sentence in reverse order, a few "only Spaniards". Let's make clear that political causes (separatism, for instance) driven by peaceful means are legitimate and if a majority of the population wants to break (by the moment, that's not the case according to Cat Gov surveys) that would be hard to ignore.

As for hearing my reasons, I remember having stated my feelings on this subject in some old thread. Right now, I feel lazy...

[jmlv]

The expression "catalans are not spaniards in any meaninful sense" is very unfortunate.

They are Spaniards, as Spaniards as Andalucians Basque or Valencians. they are not Castilians but identifying Caastile with Spain is not accurate (even if some conservatives would like it)

Scottish are not English but they are certainly Brittish. The same here.

[ag]

Well, of course, this is a continuum. In Girona they have already achieved, I think, the situation, when, at least the young, speak Castillian well as a foreign language. The attitudes are increasingly very non-Spanish. Of course, there are parts of Catalonia where there is more of a Spanish feeling - and, of course, there are many people from other parts of Spain living in Catalonia. Of course, almost all Catalans  I know refer to those as "immigrants"

The interesting thing is what is next. Balearics and Valencia, of course, are Catalan-speaking. Without Catalonia (and Basque country?), Spain would be much more Castillian, which may cause them to feel marginalized. Even though today the Catalan feeling there is relatively soft, it may well get strengthened.

[politicus]

The expression "Catalans are not Spaniards in any meaningful sense" is very unfortunate.

They are Spaniards, as Spaniard as Andalusians, Basques or Valencians. They are not Castilians but identifying Castile with Spain is not accurate (even if some conservatives would like it)

Scottish are not English but they are certainly Brittish. The same here.

Well, sure, but the interesting issue is whether this definition of Spain is helpful for Spanish progressives, since it is likely a lost battle. And just as English leftists can use an enormous amount of energy trying to keep Scotland in the union, so can the Spanish left with Catalonia and the Basque provinces. With the establishment of the EU the temptation to break free of old "imperial" states has increased for minority nations in Europe, and that is only natural. Many are too small, divided or assimilated, but some like Scotland and Catalonia are still viable entities with a clear separate identity. Both Spain and Britain are countries dominated by one nation at the expense of others, which is likely not a sensible way to organize things in the modern world, and not easy to change despite widespread autonomy.

In Britain the English left has a very clear motivation in keeping Scotland in the union to make it easier to avoid Conservative governments, but this isn't really the case in Spain. So I just see it as a strategic mistake to use political capital in trying to preserve an old "imperial" state construction, even if this can be defended as multiculturalism in a modern context. Britain and Spain were not constructed because the English and Castilian felt multiculturalism was a good and mutually enriching thing, but as extensions of the power of a strong people over their weaker neighbours. Defending old historical unions is natural for Conservatives, but hardly a natural project for the left.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Don't the ERC officially advocate for a Greater Catalonia encompassing not only Catalonia, but Valencia, the Balearics, Andorra and a decent wedge of Aragorn and France?

[jmlv]

Yes, the so-called Paisos Catalans

[Velasco]

"The other Catalans".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/25/inenglish/1443191639_860503.html

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The article presents the opinions of several people. Flavio Carvalho, Brazilian, states being "very optimistic about the process". Paco Grande, Andalusian, regrets that "we will end up divided". Heber Arcos, Peruvian, cooled down his initial enthusiasm: “At first, independence sounded like paradise, just like they’re painting it now...” “I liked the idea of creating a country like Andorra, with more jobs, a better economy...But now, with all the government corruption, both in Madrid and here, my blinkers are off. Now I am neutral or almost against the process [of independence]. I think it’s all about serving their own interests.”

[Velasco]

Opinòmetre / El Periòdic d'Andorra

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats)

Junts pel Sí (JpS) 62/64 seats

Ciutadans (C's) 20/21 seats

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) 16/18 seats

Catalunya Sí que es Pot (CSP) 12/14 seats

Partit Popular (PP) 8/10 seats

Candidatura d'Unitat Popular (CUP) 6/8 seats

Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC) 5/6 seats

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/46559/les-forces-independentistes-aconseguirien-la-majoria-absoluta

[jmlv]

My feeling was that PSC would be ahead of Catalunya si q es Pot. This poll confitms it. Iceta did a good campaign and Rabell was probably not the most charismatic candidate.

[jmlv]

The question is whether the failure of CSP will be contagious to other territories where Podemos is trying bigger coalitions.

Personally I do notthink it willaffect Galicia (where the coalition Podemos, Anova e Esquerda Unida can easily be ahead of PSOE. Different may be the Valencian scenario.

[SPQR]

So it looks like CUP will push independentists over the required 68 seats.
What about the vote %? Will JpS + CUP be close to 50%?

[PetrSokol]

Do you know when the polls will be closed?

[Nanwe]

So it looks like CUP will push independentists over the required 68 seats.
What about the vote %? Will JpS + CUP be close to 50%?

No, together JxS and the CUP won't have a majority in votes. The only reason why they'll win a majority of seats is due to the malapportionment of the electoral system. But obviously they'll be around 45% or so of the votes together.

I believe the polls close at 8 pm Spanish time.

[jmlv]

There is an increse in participation, around 6% more than in 2012

[BundouYMB]

Where can we watch the results?

[Nanwe]

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In some colleges in Tarragona, the high turnout means there are no more envelops, so the electoral authorities are requesting to have more sent pronto. This is pretty cool, honestly.

[ag]

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In some colleges in Tarragona, the high turnout means there are no more envelops, so the electoral authorities are requesting to have more sent pronto. This is pretty cool, honestly.

High immigrant turnout

[Hash]

Exit poll:

JxSi 63-66
C's 19-21
PSC 14-16
CSP 12-14
CUP 11-13
PP 9-11
Unió 0-3

[ag]

Exit poll:

JxSi 63-66
C's 19-21
PSC 14-16
CSP 12-14
CUP 11-13
PP 9-11
Unió 0-3

This is even more interesting than the last polls

[Nanwe]

According to TV3 (should it really be trusted tho?), the sum of CUP+JxS still does not add an absolute majority of votes, only of seats.

[Niemeyerite]

According to TV3 (should it really be trusted tho?), the sum of CUP+JxS still does not add an absolute majority of votes, only of seats.

49,8% of the votes. That can be considered a majority of votes.

[Nanwe]

According to TV3 (should it really be trusted tho?), the sum of CUP+JxS still does not add an absolute majority of votes, only of seats.

49,8% of the votes. That can be considered a majority of votes.

True, just did my math >.>

Apparently some journalists warn that there was no 'cocina' by TV3 to take into account potentially shy voters from either PP or Unió. So obviously nothing is certain until 21.30 or so.

[Beezer]

Majority if rejected ballots are removed from the count?