Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[Hash]

The separatists are underperforming exit polls: JxSi and CUP have 72 seats (still an absolute majority) but 'only' about 47% with just over half counted. In the meantime, C's is at 25 seats and 17.9%.

[ag]

So far, with 56.37% of precincts reporting

JxSi 62 seats, 39.4% vote
C     25 seats, 17.88% vote
PSC 17 seats, 13.4% vote
PP    11 seats, 8.43% vote
CSP 10 seats, 8.95% vote
CUP 10 seats, 7.92% vote
UDC 0 seats, 2.34% vote

turnout 77.03%

http://elecciones.lavanguardia.com/catalanas/2015/resultados-cataluna-ccaa/

[Bacon King]

results page http://resultats.parlament2015.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM_L2.htm

56% of votes counted:

JxSi 39.4%, 62 seats
CUP  7.9%, 10 seats
pro-independence: 47.3%, 72 seats (majority = 68 seats)

C's 17.9%, 25 seats
PSC 13.4%, 17 seats
PP 8.4%, 11 seats
CSP 9.0%, 10 seats

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow looks like the dancing paid off for the Socialists!

Also CSP managed to get three seats less than the Greens did last election. Fail.

[ag]

So far, with 82.93% of precincts reporting

JxSi 63 seats, 39.36% vote
C     25 seats, 17.94% vote
PSC 16 seats, 13.00 vote
PP    11 seats, 8.46% vote
CSP 10 seats, 9.00% vote
CUP 10 seats, 8.12% vote
UDC 0 seats, 2.44% vote

turnout 77.32%

[jaichind]

Catalan President Artur Mas says result of regional elections is a mandate for pro-independence supporters to continue campaign to break with Spain.

[ag]

With 86.53% of precincts reporting

JxSi 62 seats, 39.40% vote
C     25 seats, 17.97% vote
PSC 16 seats, 12.94% vote
CSP 11 seats, 8.97% vote
PP    11 seats, 8.48% vote
CUP 10 seats, 8.12% vote
UDC 0 seats, 2.46% vote

turnout 77.37%

[jmlv]

Junts pel Si is Convergencia and Esquerra. They have less seats than 3 years ago.

PSC loses seats but Iceta managed to avoid a huge disaster

PP is now KO

Fail of CSP, the candidate was just too bad

Cs great result but I doubt that success can be translated to the rest of Spain

CUP has the key

[Famous Mortimer]

With 86.53% of precincts reporting

JxSi 62 seats, 39.40% vote
C     25 seats, 17.97% vote
PSC 16 seats, 12.94% vote
CSP 11 seats, 8.97% vote
PP    11 seats, 8.48% vote
CUP 10 seats, 8.12% vote
UDC 0 seats, 2.46% vote

turnout 77.37%

Stupid, obvious question: Where do all the parties stand on independence vs autonomy?

JxSi: Obviously pro-independence
C: Obviously anti-independence but what's its stand on autonomy?
PSC: I'm guessing in favor of the status quo
PP: Anti-autonomy?
CUP: Obviously pro-indendence
CSP: Cop out "whatever the people want"
UDC: I have no idea, are they for full independence or just autonomy?

[ag]

With 86.53% of precincts reporting

JxSi 62 seats, 39.40% vote
C     25 seats, 17.97% vote
PSC 16 seats, 12.94% vote
CSP 11 seats, 8.97% vote
PP    11 seats, 8.48% vote
CUP 10 seats, 8.12% vote
UDC 0 seats, 2.46% vote

turnout 77.37%

Stupid, obvious question: Where do all the parties stand on independence vs autonomy?

JxSi: Obviously pro-independence
C: Obviously anti-independence but what's its stand on autonomy?
PSC: I'm guessing in favor of the status quo
PP: Anti-autonomy?
CUP: Obviously pro-indendence
CSP: Cop out "whatever the people want"
UDC: I have no idea, are they for full independence or just autonomy?

Autonomy, in Spanish context, has a clear meaning. Nobody can argue against Autonomy - Spanish state is a collection of Autonomies. PP voters might dislike it and C voters might not care for it, but it is not a point that is being discussed.

From what I understand, both PP (certainly) and C are against further autonomy (and would prefer the current one to be somewhat less pronounced). All the rest are, broadly, Catalanist and would be happy with increased autonomy. This is even true of the PSC, at least at the leadership level - there is a reason why it is not merely the local branch of PSOE. The only parties that could be called "non-Catalanist" are PP and C.

[MaxQue]

With 86.53% of precincts reporting

JxSi 62 seats, 39.40% vote
C     25 seats, 17.97% vote
PSC 16 seats, 12.94% vote
CSP 11 seats, 8.97% vote
PP    11 seats, 8.48% vote
CUP 10 seats, 8.12% vote
UDC 0 seats, 2.46% vote

turnout 77.37%

Stupid, obvious question: Where do all the parties stand on independence vs autonomy?

JxSi: Obviously pro-independence
C: Obviously anti-independence but what's its stand on autonomy?
PSC: I'm guessing in favor of the status quo
PP: Anti-autonomy?
CUP: Obviously pro-indendence
CSP: Cop out "whatever the people want"
UDC: I have no idea, are they for full independence or just autonomy?

UDC broke the CiU coalition existing since the 70's, because the other party was independentist (that other party is now the heart of the JxSi list).

[Nanwe]

Stupid, obvious question: Where do all the parties stand on independence vs autonomy?

JxSi: Obviously pro-independence
C: Obviously anti-independence but what's its stand on autonomy?
PSC: I'm guessing in favor of the status quo
PP: Anti-autonomy?
CUP: Obviously pro-indendence
CSP: Cop out "whatever the people want"
UDC: I have no idea, are they for full independence or just autonomy?

JxSi: Independence,
CUP: Independence and favourable to the independence of the whole Països Catalans (Valencia, Franja in Aragon, Roussillon, Balearic Islands, Alghere in Sardinia).
CsP: Anti-independence, favourable to a referendum. Federal Spain, mentioning Catalonia as a nation or a país (within a país de países known as Spain) in the Constitution.
UDC: Anti-independence, favourable to a referendum. In favour of the 'tercera via', probably either a federal Spain or a confederate one with special arrangements for Catalonia.
PSC: Anti-independence. Federal Spain, asymmetry. Special status for Catalonia.
C's: Anti-independence. Clarification of competencies of the autonomies. I don't think it's entirely opposed to further devolution in some aspects, but overall content with devolution's levels. But this is not a big issue for the party, it's more centred on what to do with those competences already held (especialy education). Favourable to a reform of the Constitution to finish the autonomic process of devolution.
PP: Anti-independence. Pro-status quo, perhaps some members would be favourable to less devolution but even the PPC leadership have come to accept the Estatut of 2006.

JxSi is formed by CDC (liberal-conservative), ERC (social-democratic), Democrates per Catalunya (independentist split from Unió) and MES (no idea).

[politicus]

99,75% counted

Candidatures   Vots   Diputats      
JxSí   1.617.644   39,55%   62               
C's   733.014   17,92%   25   
PSC   520.757   12,73%   16   
CatSíPot 365.405 8,93%   11               
PP   347.682   8,50%   11   
CUP   335.727   8,21%   10

47,76% pro-independence - 72 seats

[Zinneke]

The maps will be very interesting, especially considering the theories about the rural vote being worth double that of Barcelona and Girona.

This is by no means a mandate for unilateral independence though. JxSi basically campaigned as the official Yes vote. Counting on the CUP to bolster your parliamentary majority is not going to happen, and counting on them for the popular vote says 48% voted yes. Then you have to factor in the CUP's socio-economic platform attracting hardline socialists who view independence as a secondary objective or as a stepping stone to global revolution. Why are the papers saying the opposite is true?

[politicus]

The maps will be very interesting, especially considering the theories about the rural vote being worth double that of Barcelona and Girona.

This is by no means a mandate for unilateral independence though. JxSi basically campaigned as the official Yes vote. Counting on the CUP to bolster your parliamentary majority is not going to happen, and counting on them for the popular vote says 48% voted yes. Then you have to factor in the CUP's socio-economic platform attracting hardline socialists who view independence as a secondary objective or as a stepping stone to global revolution. Why are the papers saying the opposite is true?

It is a better story.

[Velasco]

The maps will be very interesting, especially considering the theories about the rural vote being worth double that of Barcelona and Girona.

This is by no means a mandate for unilateral independence though. JxSi basically campaigned as the official Yes vote. Counting on the CUP to bolster your parliamentary majority is not going to happen, and counting on them for the popular vote says 48% voted yes. Then you have to factor in the CUP's socio-economic platform attracting hardline socialists who view independence as a secondary objective or as a stepping stone to global revolution. Why are the papers saying the opposite is true?

As you say, this result is not a mandate for the UDI. However, it says loud and clear that there's a problem that cannot be sidelined by the Spanish government resorting to legalistic formulas. It's about time for a political solution, and I can hardly foresee any that is not going through a referendum on the political status of Catalonia. Also, it seems to me quite difficult that any kind of public consultation which doesn't include the option of an independent state -as socialists pretend- is going to be acceptable for the Catalans. In any case, everything remains outstanding until a new government takes office in Madrid, after the next Spanish general election. It's obvious that this result is going to have an impact in the next general election. Podemos and PP have failed, PSC resists better than expected -although the result is not something to celebrate- and C's acheived a big success -it remains to be seen if their voters in the Metro area will support Albert Rivera or switch to the socialists or other parties in the general election-. In the meantime, tension will increase between Barcelona and Madrid and Artur Mas is going to have a hard time because the CUP doesn't want him at the head of the government. As for the CUP factor, you are right. There is a  border area between the CUP and the CSP, people who think that a new "constituent process" is easier to achieve in an independent state. The narrative on this election tends to portray two homogeneous blocks in favour and against independence, but things are a little more complicated than that. It was amusing, by the way, hearing certain political comentators in Spanish TV channels. By no means that 51.7% of the vote achieved by the rest of parties constitutes an homogeneous 'unionist' block.

[politicus]

99.97% now. 47.75% pro-independence (unless some of the four parties below 1% are pro as well?)

JxSí   1.620.697   39,54%   62   ("new")            
C's   734.538   17,92%   25   +16
PSC   521.916   12,73%   16   -4
CatSíPot   366.274   8,94%   +11 (new)               
PP   348.350   8,50%   11   -8
CUP   336.292   8,21%   10   +7   
-----------------------------------------
UDC   102.835   2,51%                  
PACMA   29.771   0,73%         
RECORTES CERO-ELS VERDS   14.388   0,35%                  
GANEMOS   1.158   0,03%                  
PIRATA.CAT/XDT   326   0,01%   

[Velasco]

(unless some of the four parties below the threshold are pro as well?)

unio.cat   102.835   2,51%                  
PACMA   29.771   0,73%         
RECORTES CERO-ELS VERDS   14.388   0,35%                  
GANEMOS   1.158   0,03%                  
PIRATA.CAT/XDT   326   0,01%   

Not really, or at least not a priority. Aside Unió, there are two single-issue parties (animalist PACMA and the Pirates) and two marginal anti-austerity leftist groups that are like somebody's sect (Recortes Cero and Ganemos).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://resultados27s.elespanol.com/

There are somewhere better maps than that one?

[Nanwe]

The CUP has ruled out an UDI since the sum of the two outright independentist parties fails to meet the 50%. They have also stated that they will not support Mas' investiture, which means that there'll be a second round of investiture by simple majority. All Mas needs is the CUP or someone else to abstain. Or Mas resigns, but if he's forced to resign, CDC will leave JxS in a heart beat.

[Velasco]

http://resultados27s.elespanol.com/

There are somewhere better maps than that one?

http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-distribuye-voto-independentista-Catalunya_0_435356948.html

This one shows the support by municipality for pro-independence parties. They got more than 50% in 85% of them. Keep in mind that Catalonia has nearly 1,000 municipalities and many have less than 1,000 people. The bulk of the population is concentrated in Barcelona Metropolitan Region and coastal areas, which appear in lighter shades. It's impressive the support for separatists in certain inland regions, sometimes called "the deep Catalonia". They're already"disconnected" from Spain, speaking in psychological or sentimental terms.

As for the results in the Metro area, it's also impressive that C's came first in many municipalities that once were PSC strongholds, including l'Hospitalet (second Catalan city in population). PSC resists as first party in Santa Coloma and Cornellà while PP comes second in Badalona (third city in population), were candidate Xavier García Albiol was mayor until recently. The best places for C's in Catalonia are Vila-seca (35.8%) and Salou (32.7%), both located near Tarragona.

Pro-independence Ara makes the following calculation on the 'plebiscite':

"Yes": 47.75% (Jps and CUP)

"Yes/No": 11.45% (CSP and UDC)

"No": 39.17% (C's, PSC and PP)

"Others": 1.12% (rest of parties)

It's a curious interpretation of the results, based on the informal consultation held in November. Ara columnists talk about a "clear victory" with "a lot of work to be done", "perseverance", etcetera.

As Jordi Évole, a popular TV conductor who is from Catalonia, says: "The saga continues". 

[Velasco]

Some curious municipal results, courtesy of Ara.

More separatist municipalities:

l'Esquirol (roll 1,727): JxSi 78.45%, CUP 13.15%, UDC 1.8%, CSP 1.73%, PSC 1.54%, PP 1.35%, C's 1.35%

Sant Julià de Vilatorta (roll 2,275): JxSi 83.55%, CUP 6.88%, UDC 2.04%, C's 2%, PSC 1.91%, PP 1.81%, CSP 1.58%

Santa Maria d'Oló (roll 836): JxSi 77.16%, CUP 12.35%, C's 2.52%, PSC 2.26%, UDC 2.26%, PP 1.46%, CSP 1.2%

Less separatist:

Badia del Vallès: (roll 10,561):  PSC 27.36%, C's 25.21%, CSP 17.92%, PP 11.07%, JxSi 9.6%, CUP 5%, UDC 0.94%

La Llagosta (roll 9,609): C's 25.66%, PSC 25.07%, CSP 15.64%, JxSi 14.83%, PP 10.81%, CUP 4.25%, UDC 1.49%

Santa Coloma de Gramenet (roll 78.746): PSC 25.29%, C's 23.49%, CSP 14.72%, PP 13.94%, JxSi 13.63%, CUP 5.57%, UDC 1.27%

More favourable to JxSi: Sant Juliá de Vilatorta (83.55%), Folgueroles (80.26%) and La Cellera de Ter (80.26%)

More favourable to C's: Vila-seca (35.76%), Salou (32.67%) and La Pobla de Mafumet (29.01%)

More favourable for the PSC: Les (28.07%), Badia del Vallès (27.36%) and Bossòst (26.89%).

Les and Bossòst are in the Val d'Aran, a region in the Pyrenees with a proper language and the less separatist area of inland Catalonia. Badia is in the Metro region.

More favourable for CSP: Badia del Vallès (17.92%), Montmeló (17.46%) and el Prat de Llobregat (17.41%)

More favourable for PP: Badalona (22.72%), Bossòst (18.66%), Godall (17.57%)

More favourable for the CUP: Monistrol de Calders (19.5%), el Pla del Penedès (17.69%), Celrà (17.65%).
 
I think the CUP came first in some tiny municipality in Tarragona province, so maybe municipalities below certain population are excluded from Ara rankings.

More categories here:

http://www.ara.cat/eleccions27s/dades/resultats/ranquing

Maps of results here, including their calculation on the 'plebiscite':

http://www.ara.cat/eleccions27s/dades/resultats/mapes

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy offers "dialogue" within the bounds of law:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/28/inenglish/1443448640_981485.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This man is definitely out of place and should resign immediately, because of his great weight of responsibility in this terrible mess. Zapatero didn't see the financial catastrophe coming in 2008 and therefore was kicked out. Mariano Rajoy has been blind, dumb and deaf while the wave was growing to become in a tsunami. Given that Mr Rajoy won't leave and his party is not going to replace him, we can only hope that the next elections will send him back to Pontevedra. In neither case PP will be able to handle this situation, so they should not obstruct any possible attempt to achieve a political solution if (hopefully) they are in the opposition next year.

Even without UDI the "process" is going to move forward, with or without Mas. Among other things, because it's the cement that integrates that colorful and disparate alliance called Together for Yes and also because the CUP will push it on different paths.

In the wake of electoral success, C's people is confident that Catalan elections will be a turning point to surpass Podemos. Apparently, they are designing a plan to defy the PP-PSOE hegemony in the next general elections.

[Gren]

Whoa, it's been ages since I last posted in this forum. However, I do think that this occasion offers a good excuse for me to do so. Although I am Basque, I currently live in Barcelona, and even if I couldn't vote, I must admit to being a strong supporter of Independence. In any case, I am not very interested in arguing about the legitimacy, or lack  thereof, of the mandate that JxS and CUP may have to declare Independence. The situation is far more complex than the arithmetics may suggest (both in terms of seats and votes) and I don't have a clue as to how all this will end up. Nevertheless, I find it much more entertaining to look at the geography of this election. I have noticed that previous posters have mentioned the divide between rural and urban Catalunya, but I would like go much further in that analysis.

In an effort to demonize Catalan (and Basque) nationalism, unionists tend to point out at the fact that "peripheral nationalists" achieve their best results in rural areas and small towns, arguing that Independence is a movement of backwards, narrow-minded people. To start with, this is a deeply offensive assumption, as rural dwellers in both Catalonia and the Basque Country are at least as educated and cultivated as voters in big cities. In any case, even if there is a clear correlation between rural/small town living and support for Independence (look at the overwhelming majorities for JxS and CUP in counties such as Osona, Pla de L'Estany, Solsonès, Garrotxa, Berguedà, Priorat, etc.), I would argue that living in a rural setting per se doesn't make people more inclined to Independence. Actually, there are two factors which I consider key to understanding the support for Independence in rural areas and small towns: culture and ethnicity. Such areas haven't experienced the levels of immigration from other regions of Spain that urban regions have, therefore remaining more "ethnically" and "culturally" Catalan. I know that these two concepts can be somewhat disturbing, but let's confront the truth: they have had a clear impact on elections in Catalonia for many decades.

To further prove my point, if we look at more specific results in urban areas, we will son come to the realization that neighbourhoods that have remained largely untouched by Spanish immigration, and thus more ethnically and culturally Catalan, are as supportive of Independence as many rural areas and small towns. VilaWeb has created an incredibly useful set of maps, which can be accessed at http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticies/mapa-resultats-eleccions-27-s-municipis-carrer-per-carrer/, and which shows the levels of support for Independence and each political party by precinct. When taking a closer look at these maps, the trend I have mentioned becomes evident: in mainly unionist cities such as Badalona, Mataró, Sabadell, Tarragona and Terrassa, precincts in the core of the city show staggering levels of support for JxS and CUP. In most cases, these neighbourhoods make up the largely well-off, middle class city centre or "old town". They stand in stark contrast to the cities' working class neighbourhoods, where immigrants from Spain arrived en masse during the XXth century and where unionism is strongest. The city of Barcelona mirrors this trend; traditional, middle class quarters such as Sants, El Poblenou, Sarrià, Gràcia and L'Eixample show high levels of support for both JxS and CUP, whereas working class areas where Spanish born/descended voters live (such as Nou Barris district, or neighbourhoods such as La Verneda i la Pau and La Marina del Port) support unionism.

Oppositely, in strongly pro-Independence urban areas such as the city of Girona, overwhelmingly unionist areas exist; namely, the very poor and ethnically Spanish Font de la Pólvora neighbourhood, whose two precincts gave the independence side dismal levels of support: one gave JxS a miserable 10% and CUP 4%, whereas the other was even worse, with 3% for JxS and 1% for CUP (!!!), in a city where both parties combined got more than 60% of the vote. This phenomenon can be traced in other largely pro-Independence urban areas, such as Manresa and Igualada, where small pockets of unionism remain in neighbourhoods settled by Spanish immigrants.

What this trend also reveals is a correlation between social class and support for Independence, as it seems that middle class/well off neighbourhoods are much more supportive of secession than their working class counterparts. To an extent, this is true: it's not just that the aforementioned "city centre" sort of neighbourhoods, which are quite well-off, are overwhelmingly pro-Independence; affluent suburbs are also very supportive of it. Across the Barcelona Metropolitan area, it is in prosperous, educated suburbs where JxS and CUP get their best combined results:  58% in Sant Cugat del Vallès, 54% in Sant Just Desvern, 57% in Sant Quirze del Vallès, 74% in Matadepera and 66% in L'Ametlla del Vallès, to name a few. These suburbs sit near heavily unionist (and working class) suburbs such as Cornellà de Llobregat, Viladecans, Badia del Vallès, and so on. One could easily conclude that support for Independence is largely middle class, and it actually is, but as with the "rural/urban divide", I would argue that there is not a direct, cause-and-effect relationship between being middle class and pro-Independence. As in the previous case, the ethnic and cultural factors play a big role; the working class in Catalonia is largely of Spanish extraction (Catalonia was an industrial powerhouse that attracted hundreds of thousands of workers) whereas the middle class are proportionately more likely to be ethnically Catalan and speak Catalan. Although I don't have data to back this, I am sure that working-class, yet ethnically Catalan voters are big supporters of Independence, whereas middle class and rich voters of Spanish descent are probably the strongest group against Independence. Of course, not every ethnically and culturally Catalan favours Independence, nor does every ethnically Spanish voter oppose it, but the trend is clear.

Continuing with my point about social class, it is funny how the Spanish left has tried to link the Independence movement with the "elite" and the "Catalan bourgeoisie" in order to make it seem detached from the needs of the average citizen. Actually, the true elite in Catalunya is heavily against Independence. Agreed, CiU got a lot of the support of the Catalan establishment and upper classes, but so did the PP and, more recently, C's. However, with CiU now defunct as a coalition and CDC's clearly pro-Independence stance, the wealthy elites have abandoned Artur Mas. This seems clear to me when looking at the results in the quintessential neighbourhoods of the Catalan establishment: in Pedralbes and Tres Torres, the wealthiest quarters in Barcelona and probably in the Top 10 of Spain, JxS has badly underperformed CiU+ERC+SI (Solidaritat Catalana per la Independencia) 2012 votes, garnering around 12 percentage points less, which haven't gone to CUP (which is almost non-existent there), but to the moderate and ambiguous Unió, which breaks 10% in many of these precincts (it didn't get to even 3% in the whole of Catalunya). So don't trust anyone who says that Independence is an "elite movement"; it is essentially a movement of middle class professionals, salaried workers, small businessmen and qualified workers. The elites in Catalunya, as everywhere, are perfectly content with the status quo.

[jmlv]

Well allow me to say that Convergencia looks very elite to me