Elections in Cataluña/Catalonia 27 September

[jmlv]

I have not seen a thread on the elections that will take place in a week time in Cataluña (Spain), so that I take the opportunity to open a post explaining the current scenario.

The main parties are:

Junts pel Si: it is a coalition in favour of independence, which is mainly supported by Convergencia Demcoratica de Catalunya, CDC (former partner in the coalition CiU with Unió Democrática de Cataluña, now separate, and it is the party of the President Artur Mas and the former President Jordi Pujol) and Esquerra Republicana the Cataluña (ERC). CDC is right wing liberal party while ERC is left-wing. The connecting point is pro-independence. Funny enough the leaders of both parties go in number 4 and 5 of the list, even if they agree that if they win, Mas will be the president.

Ciudadanos: this party is against independence and their ideology is economic-liberal. Their leader, Albert Rivera, will run for the general elections in Spain. The candidate is a 33 years old woman, Inés Arrimadas.

Catalunya si que es Pot: a coalition of Iniciativa Per Catalunya-Verds and Podemos. It is left-wing coalition, against austerity, and in relation to independence, they are in favor of a referendum but not neccesarily of independence.

PSC: The Socialist Party, against independence and in favor of a federal Spain, has been down and down in the polls and now is polling four. His leader, Miquel Iceta, openly gay candidate.

PP. The Popular Party, against independence, and the ruling party in Spain, has as candidate Xavier García Albiol, controversial candidate who was the Mayor of Badalone, third largest city, and did not get the overañll majority in the last elections. He is controversial because of his anti-immigration speech. They are polling fifth in most polls.

CUP: left-wing pro-independence party, geowing in the polls.

UDC: Unió Democrática de Catalunya, former partner of CDC, right-wing conservative party. It does not have a guaranteed seat according to polls.

[jmlv]

Yes, I saw that general thread. That thread does not have much movement. In my opinion, each election has its own entity (as there are special threads for Scotland or the Faroe, beyond UK or Denmark). Particularly taking into account that the focus of these elections are the independence of Catalonia.

[jmlv]

I would never imagine that Cataluña could be compared to a German lander or a Dutch province and not to Scotland or Northern Ireland, in political terms.

There are four Autonomies which held elections differently and at different times than the other thirteen: the historical nations.

I very much doubt that the main point of an election in a German or Austrian lander would be independence.

[jmlv]

I do not think they will declare independence the 28th but if Junts pel Si and CUP get the overall majority, they will work on it.

[jmlv]

Even though I agree with you both - I am in favour of that referendum, there are many doubts as if Rajoy himself could even call a referendum on the matter.

Of course the President can call referendos, but the Constitution would be a limit for him to have a vote on the independence of Cataluña without a previous constitutional reform.

[jmlv]

One of the latest polls: overall majority for independence: Junts pel Si and CUP.

http://cadenaser.com/emisora/2015/09/21/radio_barcelona/1442813352_895709.html

[jmlv]

Republic with no doubt. The Bourbons would not be popular because they abolished the Catalonian institutions 3 centuries ago.

[jmlv]

That is what Junts pel Si claims. There is no legal basis for that. formally it is just as any other election. Informally, that is what the coalition Junts pel Si (where Artur Mas is) wants.

[jmlv]

My guess is that Junts pel Si will not get as much, but CUP might do. The pro-independece will win in seats but not in votes. That is because the less populated provinces are overrepresented and Barcelona, where independentism is not so strong, is underrepresented

[jmlv]

Yes, exactly, they claim that.

On the contrary, CUP has said that they would not support it as merely based on seats. (And also that they would not support Artur Mas as President).

And Junts pel Si will probably need CUP.

[jmlv]

Big mistake today of Rajoy in an interview in the radio: Rajoy said that in an independent Catalonia, the Catalans would lose the Spanish nationality. The journalist had to remind him that the nationality is not lost since they are Spaniards of origin. Quite embarrasing for the President.

[jmlv]

Rajoy proved to know very little about the Constitution and the Civil code. Even if Catalonia declares its independenxe, their citizens would remain Spanish nationals (unless they decided otherwise, individually). There are cases in Spain qhere courts even acknowledged the nationality of people from Western Sahara. They are Spaniars of origin.

Catalunya si que es pot is in favor of a referendum, not of independence. They would in any case npt support a government with Mas and CDC around because they are antiausterity. Catalunya si que es pot is basically Podemos and the United Left of Catalonia.

I do not think there will be arrests or anything like that. the Spanish government will simply appeal before the Constitutional Court an UDI.

[jmlv]

Some parties, like Catalunya si que es Pot and PSC try to discuss other politics, like social issues, unemployment and the cuts developed by the governments of Mas (who is hidden fourth in the list of Junts pel Si). That would in principle be a good argument for them (specially for CatSiQP) to break the polarization independence/not independence. However they seem to be unsuccesful. Maybe the candidate of CatSiQP was not the best choice as he seems not to engage people enough.

[jmlv]

Yes I support Iceta dancing freely. But also Pablo Iglesias singing in Indian way.

[jmlv]

Unfortunately it does not have subtitles in English but this video of Pablo Iglesias in the campaign is great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7_oTiLqw_0

[jmlv]

Beyond the singing, I think Pablo Iglesias is leaving a quite clear message:

- Rajoy and Mas represent the same: austerity and right-wing measures in economy
- Mas is interested in polarizing the debate on independence/independence without saying anything about his questionable government
- Albert Rivera supports the same as Rajoy and Mas in economy

In sum, he tries to break the independence topic with social/economic issues. So far the coalition does not seem sucessful, but I think the candidate, Rabell, is not very charismatic.

[jmlv]

Ciutdadans is a clear right wing party in economy. Beyond the independence. Axis, one would have to couple with clearly far liberaleconomic policies.

[jmlv]

I would not call them social-liberal. They are just liberal or far liberal. Being extreme is allowed but that does not make a policy less "extreme". Garicano is pretty much agreeing with Thatchers ideology. Whether thats extreme or not, its a matter of taste, but it is certainly far-liberal.

More moderate seems UPyD, but that party is now declining.

About the polls, I am not sure. I think that PSC can be in the end ahead of Catalunya Si que es Pot. Ciutdadans seems clearly second. CUP will get more than what the polls say, i think.

[jmlv]

Iceta, I think he is a good politician. But the PSC has been too ambiguous in the last years regarding almost everything.

Catalunya si que es Port: I like the original idea, but I think the candidate is not the best one and their campaign seems faded.

CUP is doing a very coherent campaign, if one is independentist.

[jmlv]

I was just reflecting something: If you are independentist from Esquerra Republicana, that is, you ae left-wing, why not voting CUP, thus avoiding Mas?

I wonder if some voters can make the same reflection and some former voters of ERC will vote now to CUP.

[jmlv]

And what about UDC? They really seem out of place. No more Ritz for Duran i Lleida.

[jmlv]

According to a TV programme, the polls (which are still being done but not published) suggest that UDC can survive and get in.

[jmlv]

I am not sure uninspiring...I think he is fairly clear: he is not in favor of independence but referendum is OK. Not very different from the British approach to Scotland.

[jmlv]

The expression "catalans are not spaniards in any meaninful sense" is very unfortunate.

They are Spaniards, as Spaniards as Andalucians Basque or Valencians. they are not Castilians but identifying Caastile with Spain is not accurate (even if some conservatives would like it)

Scottish are not English but they are certainly Brittish. The same here.

[jmlv]

Yes, the so-called Paisos Catalans