Post-Walker GOP Drop Out Poll

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Discuss

[Crumpets]

I still say Santorum. He has basically no money, but isn't trying to run a shoestring campaign like Chafee and Gilmore.

[bobloblaw]

Yeb, hopefully

[Maxwell]

I'll say Pataki or Gilmore, but it could be someone equally as unexpected as Scott Walker.

[WVdemocrat]

Jeb's not dropping out. I'm confident he will be the nominee.

Santorum will most probably be the next to exit the race. If not him, then Paul or Jindal.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Voted Santorum.  I thought about saying that Trump would "get bored" as soon as he fell to second in the polls.

[Penelope]

Previous Result (9/11/15 - 9/21/15):
Jim Gilmore - 26.8%
Rand Paul - 17.9%
George Pataki - 13.4%
Bobby Jindal - 10.7%
Chris Christie - 8.0%
Lindsey Graham - 8.0%
Rick Santorum - 7.1%
Jeb Bush - 2.7%
Lincoln Chafee - 1.8%
Hillary Clinton - 1.8%
Donald Trump - 0.9%
Scott Walker - 0.9%
Others - 0.0%

[Crumpets]

Previous Result (9/11/15 - 9/21/15):
Jim Gilmore - 26.8%
Rand Paul - 17.9%
George Pataki - 13.4%
Bobby Jindal - 10.7%
Chris Christie - 8.0%
Lindsey Graham - 8.0%
Rick Santorum - 7.1%
Jeb Bush - 2.7%
Lincoln Chafee - 1.8%
Hillary Clinton - 1.8%
Donald Trump - 0.9%
Scott Walker - 0.9%
Others - 0.0%

What does that say about our analytic abilities on Atlas? Seriously, more people thought Hillary would drop out than Walker.

[/]

Previous Result (9/11/15 - 9/21/15):
Jim Gilmore - 26.8%
Rand Paul - 17.9%
George Pataki - 13.4%
Bobby Jindal - 10.7%
Chris Christie - 8.0%
Lindsey Graham - 8.0%
Rick Santorum - 7.1%
Jeb Bush - 2.7%
Lincoln Chafee - 1.8%
Hillary Clinton - 1.8%
Donald Trump - 0.9%
Scott Walker - 0.9%
Others - 0.0%

What does that say about our analytic abilities on Atlas? Seriously, more people thought Hillary would drop out than Walker.

We did get Perry right, though.

[Vosem]

At least Santorum is averaging 1%. Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki all have nothing. Voted Gilmore since he gave up in July in 2008 and is no longer being invited to debates.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Did Paul pay for the caucus? If not, then him. He was just as bored as Walker at the last one.

If yes, then probably Jindal or Santorum - whoever has less faith in Iowa.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think Santorum will stick it out actually. I think Jindal or even Paul will fall next.

[Horsemask]

Did Paul pay for the caucus? If not, then him. He was just as bored as Walker at the last one.

If yes, then probably Jindal or Santorum - whoever has less faith in Iowa.

I believe he did pay by the deadline.

I've been guessing Gilmore but I'll change course and actually say Jindal this time.

[Penelope]

I think Pataki. He just seems so out of place in the 2016 primary, and he doesn't have the luxury of being able to appeal to a particular niche of the electorate like Graham, Jindal, or Santorum do. And he doesn't appear to be in it 'for the hell of it' like Gilmore is. I wager once it's officially announced that there's going to be no more early debates, he'll quietly drop out.

[Bull Moose Base]

6 months ago, what would have been the odds on Walker dropping out before Gilmore? 1000 to 1?

[Mr. Morden]

6 months ago, what would have been the odds on Walker dropping out before Gilmore? 1000 to 1?

No way.  This isn't all that unusual.  Third tier candidates stay in the race long after first tier candidates drop out all the time.  E.g., Phil Gramm dropped out in 1996, before Dornan, Lugar, etc.  Duncan Hunter didn't drop out until after South Carolina in 2008, despite being stuck at 0% in the polls and having no money for the entire campaign.

[The Other Castro]

Depending on what they limit the CNBC debate to, Chrsite or Kasich could drop out if they don't get invited.

[DC Al Fine]

At least Santorum is averaging 1%. Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki all have nothing. Voted Gilmore since he gave up in July in 2008 and is no longer being invited to debates.

Of this crew, which ones are trying to run real campaigns?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Basically if you are young and ambiguous you better drop out now before you forever become associated winning 0.3% of the vote in Iowa and then having to hitchhike to New Hampshire as the campaign bus runs out of diesel and you can't pay.

[Mr. Morden]

Basically if you are young and ambiguous you better drop out now before you forever become associated winning 0.3% of the vote in Iowa and then having to hitchhike to New Hampshire as the campaign bus runs out of diesel and you can't pay.

I think all the candidates qualify as ambiguous.  Every time I listen to them, I can't tell if they're real people or not.

[Likely Voter]

Pataki, Gilmore and Graham aren't really running campaigns so the fact that they are polling ~0% doesn't matter. They still get to issue statements and go on TV as an official candidate and maybe get invited to forums (although getting into more kiddie debates seems doubtful). So those guys can hang around forever really.

Santorum and Jindal actually got into this thing thinking they could win and built campaigns. I would suspect that the next to drop out would be one of them. Santorum has already run into money problems and is somewhat doing the super pac zombie campaign thing. Not sure how Jindal is doing for money and burn rate but it can't be good.

Chris Christie was a possible dropout if he was shut out of the CNN debate, but their weird rules saved him and his performance in the debate seems to have bought him another month. But if he doesn't make it into the CNBC debate, then he goes back into death watch.

[Bigby]

Jinny.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Basically if you are young and ambiguous you better drop out now before you forever become associated winning 0.3% of the vote in Iowa and then having to hitchhike to New Hampshire as the campaign bus runs out of diesel and you can't pay.

I think all the candidates qualify as ambiguous.  Every time I listen to them, I can't tell if they're real people or not.

Lol,I meant ambitious.

[Figueira]

We're supposed to make one of these that includes all the candidates, not just the Republicans.

[Clark Kent]

Let's see who won't:

Dump: Unfortunately
Fiorina: Doing very well
Carson: Still doing pretty well
Rubio: Best establishment candidate by far, especially after Walker dropped out
Kasich: Rising
Paul: If he's anything like his father
Bush: If only to spite Dump