IA-PPP: D: Clinton 43% Sanders 22% Biden 17%; R: Trump 24% Carson 17% Fiorina 13%

[Mr. Morden]

PPP poll of Iowa:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_92215.pdf

Dems

Clinton 43%
Sanders 22%
Biden 17%
O’Malley 3%
Webb 3%
Chafee 2%
Lessig 0%

GOP

Trump 24%
Carson 17%
Fiorina 13%
Cruz 8%
Rubio 8%
Bush 6%
Huckabee 6%
Walker 5%
Jindal 4%
Paul 4%
Kasich 2%
Christie 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki 0%

[weixiaobao]

Okay, so Sanders is not really topping Clinton in Iowa at all.

Base on the last PPP poll in early Aug, Trump actually went up 5%.  But based on my average of polls prior to the debate Trump went down a few point.

[The Other Castro]

Quinnipiac has them basically tied, CBS has Sanders up 10, and PPP has Clinton up 21. We'll need plenty more polling on this, but for now it cannot be described as anything but a tossup.

(Edited)

[Talleyrand]

Trump's favorability are awful, and he's getting pummeled in one on one matchups. He'll be finished sometime next month.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders leads among “very liberal” voters, but Clinton leads among all other groups.

2nd choice of Biden supporters:

Clinton 43%
not sure 32%
Sanders 15%
O’Malley 8%
Webb 2%
Lessig 1%
Chafee 0%

On the GOP side, who leads among…

Evangelicals: Carson
non-Evangelicals: Trump
men: Trump
women: Carson

The gender gap is now enormous:

men:
Trump 33%
Carson 12%
Fiorina 11%

women:
Carson 23%
Fiorina 15%
Trump 15%

GOP head-to-heads:

Trump 51%
Bush 37%

Carson 60%
Trump 33%

Fiorina 54%
Trump 36%

Rubio 53%
Trump 38%

Walker 51%
Trump 37%

If it was just these 9 candidates (with Romney running):

Trump 24%
Carson 17%
Fiorina 14%
Romney 7%
Rubio 7%
Bush 6%
Huckabee 6%
Walker 4%

Asked of Republican voters…

Were Trump’s comments about Fiorina’s appearance appropriate?
yes 13%
no 59%

Were Trump’s comments about Bush’s wife appropriate?
yes 22%
no 49%

Did Fiorina do a good job running HP?
yes 42%
no 12%

Can vaccines lead to autism?
yes 16%
no 45%
not sure 39%

If a presidential candidate smoked marijuana in the past, you would be more likely to vote for them?
more likely 7%
less likely 30%
no difference 59%
not sure 5%

Should Islam be legal in the United States?
yes 49%
no 30%
not sure 21%

Is President Obama waging a war on Christianity?
yes 69%
no 17%

2nd choice of Walker voters:

not sure 25%
Fiorina 19%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 10%
Trump 10%
Jindal 7%
Paul 7%
Bush 4%
Santorum 2%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Favorability among own party:

Carson: 77-11
Fiorina: 62-15
Rubio: 61-19
Huckabee: 60-24
Romney: 57-24
Jindal: 56-19
Walker: 55-21
Cruz: 51-23
Santorum: 51-25
Trump: 48-38
Christie: 43-32
Paul: 43-32
Bush: 38-40
Kasich: 25-30
Graham: 22-34
Pataki: 8-31
Gilmore: 2-20

Gilmore and Pataki are seen unfavorably across the entire political spectrum.

Biden: 75-12
Clinton: 65-23
Sanders: 56-20

Democratic race without Biden:

Clinton 50
Sanders 25

Republican Voters agree 48-39 that electability is more important than conservatism. 21% are Tea Party, 54% are evangelical. 56% watched the debate, another 29% saw clips of it on the news.

[Fusionmunster]

CBS has them tied, Quinnipiac has Sanders up 10, and PPP has Clinton up 21. We'll need plenty more polling on this, but for now it cannot be described as anything but a tossup.

Quinnipiac had Sanders up 1, and CBS/YouGov had Sanders up 10. I put more faith in Quinnipiacs tie than YouGovs blowout. And I put even more faith in PPP.

[The Other Castro]

CBS has them tied, Quinnipiac has Sanders up 10, and PPP has Clinton up 21. We'll need plenty more polling on this, but for now it cannot be described as anything but a tossup.

Quinnipiac had Sanders up 1, and CBS/YouGov had Sanders up 10. I put more faith in Quinnipiacs tie than YouGovs blowout. And I put even more faith in PPP.

I mixed them up, thanks.

[Crumpets]

#Reinevitablized

[HillOfANight]

Public Policy Polling says this poll is 80% landline and 20% internet. The latest NBC Marist Iowa poll wasa 51% landline and 49% cell phone.

My guess is that those calling cell phones are more accurate, especially regarding the youth vote.

PPP: Younger voters are almost evenly split (33% Clinton, 32% Sanders)
Quinnipiac: Among 18-34, Sanders gets 66% to Clinton's 19%

[The Mikado]

Trump's favorability are awful, and he's getting pummeled in one on one matchups. He'll be finished sometime next month.

They're better than Jeb!'s results, at least.

[Eraserhead]

Don't buy it unless it's confirmed by others. PPP have made it clear that they are in Clinton's camp.

I'm most interested in seeing the next Des Moines Register poll. They are the most trustworthy here of course.

[Bull Moose Base]

Trump's favorability are awful, and he's getting pummeled in one on one matchups. He'll be finished sometime next month.

Favorables fluctuate. Iowa will be 10 or more candidates.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

GOP head-to-heads:

Trump 51%
Bush 37%

Carson 60%
Trump 33%

Fiorina 54%
Trump 36%

Rubio 53%
Trump 38%

Walker 51%
Trump 37%

Damn Trump. You're tanking.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not in line with other polls.

Qunnipiac, which has Sanders up 1, and Des Moines Register, which has Hillary up 7 have better 538 ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinnipiac has them basically tied, CBS has Sanders up 10, and PPP has Clinton up 21. We'll need plenty more polling on this, but for now it cannot be described as anything but a tossup.

(Edited)

A tossup, the QU poll overstated Biden supportn Clinton without Biden wins hands down.

Sweeping Bernie Sanders

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Quinnipiac has them basically tied, CBS has Sanders up 10, and PPP has Clinton up 21. We'll need plenty more polling on this, but for now it cannot be described as anything but a tossup.

(Edited)

A tossup, the QU poll overstated Biden supportn Clinton without Biden wins hands down.

Sweeping Bernie Sanders

QU's methodology this year has either been revelatory or a trainwreck. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They also had Clinton losing by five to Trump. Which I doubt. He is losing big time to her now in polls.

[Why]

Sanders is doing a lot better in recent polls listed on RCP as polling likely voters compared to polls saying they polled registered voters.

[/]

#Reinevitablized

[SteveRogers]

Trump's favorability are awful, and he's getting pummeled in one on one matchups. He'll be finished sometime next month.

. . . is a thing that everyone keeps saying every month.