2008: Prop 8 Doesn't Pass
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2008: Prop 8 Doesn't Pass
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 22, 2015, 09:52:08 PM »

On November 4, 2008, most of America was celebrating the election of the first Black President. However, there wasn't quite as much jubilation in California, Arizona, and Florida, as bans on marriage equality were successful in those states. Despite such bans passing in 3 states, California's ban got the most attention because it's supposed to be the most progressive non-New England state in the country and because it endured a 4-year court challenge. That challenge ended up going in equality's favor.

I always wondered what would have happened if Prop 8 did NOT pass.

Sure, the bans in Florida or Arizona could have been challenged, but therein lies a major difference: the California government refused to defend Prop 8 because it was (and still is) under Democratic rule. However, Arizona and Florida were both (and still are) under Republican rule. Two years ago, SCOTUS dismissed the Prop 8 challenge because they found the Christian organizations defending it didn't have standing. It left the trial court's original ruling (that Prop 8 is unconstitutional) in place. In a scenario where there's a challenge to the AZ or FL laws, the Republican governments would have defended the bans to the bitter end, meaning that SCOTUS would have had to rule on the merits somehow.

Thus, I pose a question to you: How do you think this all would have played out if Prop 8 failed on November 4, 2008? Would the gay rights political landscape look different? Would DADT still be good law?  Would President Obama have endorsed equality? Hell, would there be nationwide marriage equality right now?
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2015, 09:56:44 PM »

It certainly would have thrown a butterfly into the works, but DADT's still going away.
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2015, 11:47:51 AM »

So we might not have Obergefell today?

Would DOMA still have been challenged?
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2015, 09:06:59 PM »

DADT- is repealed like normal
Doma is still overthrow,
with SSM confirmed in California this likely would have fired up the pro SSM side. This likely means other pro SSM groups in other states start their own SSM initiatives.
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