Bloomberg: Dem nationally, Clinton 33 Biden 25 Sanders 24

[weixiaobao]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-23/bloomberg-poll-joe-biden-now-top-presidential-choice-for-1-in-4-democrats

Clinton 33
Biden 25
Sanders 24

Webb 2
O'malley 1
Chafee 0

[Eraserhead]

Run Joe run!

I want a three-way race.

[/]

Heresy

[HillOfANight]

I wonder what the crosstabs for this are? Selzer has a record in Iowa, not nationally.

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Does this mean they are assuming 77% of Democrats are white based on the Census, yet Gallup has found 40% of Democrats are not white?
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx

[Mr. Morden]

Another national poll with Chafee at 0.  I believe he still needs one more poll at 1% or more to qualify for the debate.

And of course, no Lessig.  I guess he's out of the debate, if the pollsters don't include him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Damn, even I didn't think we'd be seeing Hillary this low.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder what the crosstabs for this are? Selzer has a record in Iowa, not nationally.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Does this mean they are assuming 77% of Democrats are white based on the Census, yet Gallup has found 40% of Democrats are not white?
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx

No, what's posted in this thread is just the Democratic primary numbers, which is from a subsample of a larger poll of the general population.  I would assume that since Selzer is not stupid, they're only weighting the general population poll to match census data.  The Democratic subsample of that will be based on self-identification as a Democratic primary voter, and thus tilt more towards minorities.

Here's an excerpt from the larger poll that this is a part of:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-23/america-loves-pope-francis-but-not-his-stance-on-climate-change-bloomberg-poll



My guess would be that they also did a Republican primary poll as part of this.  Maybe we'll get that tomorrow.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican #s will be released tomorrow at 6am Eastern:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/646809687841742848

Also, looks like Quinnipiac will have a national 2016 poll out tomorrow (also at 6am Eastern), though unclear if that's primaries, general election, just favorability #s, or what:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

Plus I'm assuming that PPP will soon release the general election #s from their Iowa poll.

[weixiaobao]

Plus I'm assuming that PPP will soon release the general election #s from their Iowa poll.

I thought they are doing North Carolina next.

[Mr. Morden]

Plus I'm assuming that PPP will soon release the general election #s from their Iowa poll.

I thought they are doing North Carolina next.

They're doing North Carolina next, but I'm assuming that they still have GE results from the already-completed Iowa poll to release.