Post-debate average of polls.

[Senator Cris]

Including Gravis, Bloomberg, FOX, NBC, Quinnipiac, Zogby, CNN and Morning Consult:

26.5% Trump
14.5% Carson
11.6% Fiorina
9.1% Rubio
9.1% Bush
6.1% Cruz
3.5% Christie
3.0% Kasich
3.0% Huckabee
2.6% Paul
0.6% Santorum
0.5% Pataki
0.4% Jindal
0.1% Graham
0.1% Gilmore

Comments?

[Sasquatch]

Still #1

[Mehmentum]

Tier 1, The Frontrunner: Trump.

Tier 2, the Challengers: Carson & Fiorina.

Tier 3, the Competitors: Rubio, Bush, & Cruz.

Tier 4, the Underdogs: Christie, Kasich, Huckabee, & Paul.

Tier 5, the Jokes: Santorum, Pataki, Jindal, Graham, & Gilmore.

[Mr. Morden]

So let's say that one more top ten candidate drops out within the next month.  If the CNBC debate includes the top 10 candidates, the most likely new inclusion is Santorum, but Pataki of all people actually has a shot.

[Crumpets]

If they do it by top 8, Huckabee might not make the next debate, looking at these numbers.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If they do it by top 8, Huckabee might not make the next debate, looking at these numbers.

[jaichind]

If there is going to be any chance for the GOP establishment, two out of Bush Rubio and Christie has to be knocked out so the all the establishment support can concentrate on the remaining candidate which in turn will push up that candidates name recognition.  That one candidates seems like Rubio more likely than not.

[Figueira]

Tier 1, The Frontrunner: Trump.

Tier 2, the Challengers: Carson & Fiorina.

Tier 3, the Competitors: Rubio, Bush, & Cruz.

Tier 4, the Underdogs: Christie, Kasich, Huckabee, & Paul.

Tier 5, the Jokes: Santorum, Pataki, Jindal, Graham, & Gilmore.

That's purely based on polling. In terms of their actual chances, Rubio is the frontrunner.

[Bull Moose Base]

Tier 1, The Frontrunner: Trump.

Tier 2, the Challengers: Carson & Fiorina.

Tier 3, the Competitors: Rubio, Bush, & Cruz.

Tier 4, the Underdogs: Christie, Kasich, Huckabee, & Paul.

Tier 5, the Jokes: Santorum, Pataki, Jindal, Graham, & Gilmore.

That's purely based on polling. In terms of their actual chances, Rubio is the frontrunner.

Based on what though? Also, while it's true polls are volatile, has any Republican polling as poorly as Rubio (or Bush) ever won the nomination? McCain maybe? In any case, everyone is still unlikely to be the nominee. Doesn't seem ridiculous to suggest Rubio is the most likely but who knows really?

[Senator Cris]

I think that other candidates (most likely Pataki, Graham, Jindal) will follow Walker's advice to drop out in order to help to beat the "frontrunner".

[Bull Moose Base]

I think that other candidates (most likely Pataki, Graham, Jindal) will follow Walker's advice to drop out in order to help to beat the "frontrunner".

It wouldn't help, and in any case, it's a pathetic attempt on Walker's part to spin his dropping out as anything but an historic failure.

[Mr. Morden]

I like how everyone said that Graham won the latest kiddie debate, and he's now at 0.1% in the polls.  Further reinforces my hunch that they won't have any more kiddie debates.

The only hesitation I have on that is: Does CNBC want to play the bad guy by telling the bottom tier candidates that they can't debate?  They'll get some pushback from those candidates, but I guess if the RNC gives them some cover, they probably won't care too much.

[Kingpoleon]

But... But... Kasich lost the debate!

[The Other Castro]

But... But... Kasich lost the debate!

Well, I wouldn't exactly call tied for 8th at 3% "winning".

[Angel of Death]

Still amazing to see a majority for the never-elected.

[Mr. Morden]

Here is WaPo on the post-debate shifts:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/24/donald-trumps-slide-in-the-polls-is-beginning-to-look-real/

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

You might want to change the settings on who can see this before DeadPrez drops dead from the shock.

On second thought, nevermind, he's probably incapable of understanding polling anyway.