Post-debate average of polls.

[Mr. Morden]

So let's say that one more top ten candidate drops out within the next month.  If the CNBC debate includes the top 10 candidates, the most likely new inclusion is Santorum, but Pataki of all people actually has a shot.

[Mr. Morden]

I like how everyone said that Graham won the latest kiddie debate, and he's now at 0.1% in the polls.  Further reinforces my hunch that they won't have any more kiddie debates.

The only hesitation I have on that is: Does CNBC want to play the bad guy by telling the bottom tier candidates that they can't debate?  They'll get some pushback from those candidates, but I guess if the RNC gives them some cover, they probably won't care too much.

[Mr. Morden]

Here is WaPo on the post-debate shifts:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/24/donald-trumps-slide-in-the-polls-is-beginning-to-look-real/