What's Rubio's path to the nomination?

[RI]

Fox News, Nate Silver, and a bunch of others are all over Rubio lately, but what's his path to actually win? I can't see him winning Iowa or New Hampshire. Iowa plays much more toward Trump, Carson, Cruz, Paul, Huckabee, etc. while New Hampshire plays toward Trump, Bush, Kasich, Fiorina, maybe Paul. Nevada and South Carolina aren't likely wins for Rubio either. So where does he break through?

As a corollary, who would be his base, other than Cubans?

[Mehmentum]

He needs to outperform the other establishment friendly candidates in the early states.  If he can get the establishment to coalesce around him, he has a good chance at toppling Trump and the other anti-establishment candidates.

[Crumpets]

http://mapq.st/1Vdxwg0

[mencken]

Placing third or better in Iowa (behind Trump and/or Carson) would put him in a favorable light with fiscal conservatives and mainline Republicans seeking an alternative to his populist opponents' emphasis on divisive cultural issues. Momentum from Iowa would likely be sufficient to enable a respectable performance in New Hampshire (upper teens). From there, being the de facto establishment candidate would give him about ~30% of the vote in South Carolina, with a win contingent on how many ways the evangelicals and populists are split. Sheldon Adelson buys Rubio the Nevada caucus.

[Kingpoleon]

South Carolina-Nevada consecutive victories.

[FLgirl]

South Carolina-Nevada consecutive victories.

This. He has built a very solid foundation in South Carolina and has good ties to Nevada (lived there for several years during his youth and attended Mormon church at that time, still has family there, and I think his identity will appeal to voters there).

[Why]

Do well enough in Iowa and New Hampshire to survive and then pick up enough voters from those who drop out to win or go extremely close to winning SC and Nevada.

Trump, Carson and Fiorina all collapse before Iowa and New Hampshire leaving a Rubio to take the lead in polls going into January which means he wins Iowa and New Hampshire and dominates the primaries.

[Angel of Death]

Simply doing better than Bush in the first few states could be enough.

[Mr. Smith]

South Carolina-Nevada consecutive victories.

This. He has built a very solid foundation in South Carolina and has good ties to Nevada (lived there for several years during his youth and attended Mormon church at that time, still has family there, and I think his identity will appeal to voters there).

This exactly, and if Bush crumbles before Nevada, he has an excellent chance of taking those Mormons holding out for Bush

[Yelnoc]

He needs to make himself into The Establishment Candidate. If you can do that, he ought to win New Hampshire. If he fails to win New Hampshire, he's not a viable candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

Lose IA/NH/SC, but count on the Mormons to bail him out in Nevada:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=219100.0

But seriously, I don't see any reason why he can't win any of those states.  That new WMUR poll has him in 3rd place in NH.  Why is it so impossible to imagine him winning there?  I'm not saying that he will, but he could.  Quite a few candidates could.  There's quite a bit of time left before people start voting.

[pikachu]

Trump or Carson finished first in Iowa and then Rubio either wins or finishes a very strong second in New Hampshire (behind Trump/Carson), letting him consolidate establishment anti-Trump/Carson support behind him. I think Rubio stands a decent chance of then winning in SC, especially if Trump and Carson split the first two states. (He probably has a better chance than Nevada, but I'm not sure how much the GOP cares about that, considering that it didn't get much media attention the last two cycles.) If he wins SC, then I think he consolidates the establishment vote, and it ends up a long battle between Rubio and the other guy.

[King]

Top 4 in Iowa, win NH.

[RI]

1. People severely overestimate both the likelihood of Mormons going for the ex-Mormon Rubio (the Mormons I know are much more favorable to Carson and Bush) and Adelson's pull in Nevada (did Gingrich alotta good). I don't see how Trump loses Nevada unless he's either down and out or is completely unwilling to spend any money there. The Vegas suburbs are where Trump's base is.

2. At the height of Rubio's initial bounce, he was at 12% in NH, under 10% in SC. I'm not sure where the idea that Rubio's strong in SC comes from. He doesn't seem like the type of candidate SC would be fired up for. It seems the states he polled best were FL, GA, PA, IL, OH, NY... much more urban/suburban than SC. I guess that would make Rubio's coalition a watered-down version of Romney's perhaps?

[heatmaster]

Overtakes Trump in Iowa and slingshots to a narrow win in N.H. wins S.C. and with Florida in his back pocket,  wins Nevada.

[/]

He needs to assert himself as the main establishment candidate in the race (over Bush, Kasich, Fiorina, etc.)

Then, it will probably be a lot easier to win, as the establishment GOP usually gains momentum later in the primaries due to Republican voters being like "oh s#it we're actually voting for President."

[Mr. Morden]

How does an aloof Northeasterner like John Kerry win Iowa?  I don't get it.  Seems like it's going to be a battle between neighboring state Rep. (and past Iowa winner) Dick Gephardt and grassroots favorite Howard Dean.

[Bull Moose Base]

How does an aloof Northeasterner like John Kerry win Iowa?  I don't get it.  Seems like it's going to be a battle between neighboring state Rep. (and past Iowa winner) Dick Gephardt and grassroots favorite Howard Dean.

Yeah, the idea that someone can't comeback and win Iowa is so dumb, Walker must have had it. Rubio is actually much more likely to win Iowa than any other state: NH is less likely and winning any state without having won either of those 2 will be harder still.

[°Leprechaun]

He isn't doing well. He won't gain momentum in such a crowded field. Most of the other candidates would have to drop out.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

He has to show the Establishment that he is capable of taking the fight to THE DONALD and to Hilldawg if she is the nominee.

[Publius]

Top three in Iowa and the nomination is his unless Bush wins New Hampshire. Rubio would go on to win South Carolina after Graham's endorsement, which seals Nevada. Then it's just academic, although Cruz winning Texas and stubborn Trump/Trump supporters siphoning delegates could push it into May and June.

[FLgirl]

2. At the height of Rubio's initial bounce, he was at 12% in NH, under 10% in SC. I'm not sure where the idea that Rubio's strong in SC comes from. He doesn't seem like the type of candidate SC would be fired up for. It seems the states he polled best were FL, GA, PA, IL, OH, NY... much more urban/suburban than SC. I guess that would make Rubio's coalition a watered-down version of Romney's perhaps?

The foundation is strong. It's not about where the poll numbers are at now. It's about how much potential there is for the polling/voting come Jan/Feb.

[muon2]

I heard a speech tonight that made it pretty clear that Trey Gowdy is backing Rubio. That's a big boost in SC.

[Mister Mets]

He has to be the best performing establishment candidate in several of the early primary states. That would be enough.

With Walker out, Jeb stumbling, Trump hitting a ceiling, Carson going back and forth on whether Muslims can be President, and Fiorina's HP record being scrutinized, I can be persuaded that Rubio has a better than even shot of being the Republican nominee.

[Publius]

I can be persuaded that Rubio has a better than even shot of being the Republican nominee.

"Better than even" seems pushing it. Considering how fast narratives can change, I'd take the field over him in a heartbeat. That being said, it does seem he has inherited the "least unlikely" mantle.