What % of the African American vote COULD Ben Carson receive?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'm not asking how much he would probably receive, but how much he could conceivably get if he manages to connect with the black community.

[Gass3268]

0-10%

Dude is a wacko.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

~20%

[DrScholl]

Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

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20 AT THE MOST

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Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

It probably does. People are more likely to like people who are like them.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

15%.

[eric82oslo]

Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

Don't forget that most African Americans, especially southern blacks, are pretty socially conservative just like Carson. Where he mostly differ from other blacks is that he's probably way more fiscally conservative than other blacks. For instance, his reduction of federal taxes down to only 10% per head (which would mean that something like 70% of the federal budget would have to be scrapped I think), will not go down well with most African Americans. Unless almost all of that reduction is related to the military budget.

[eric82oslo]

Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

It probably does. People are more likely to like people who are like them.

True. Especially since his character (the calm air about him where he thinks before he speaks) should remind them quite a bit about Obama.

[DrScholl]

Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

It probably does. People are more likely to like people who are like them.

No. What comes out of his mouth really isn't any different than what other Republicans say. That does not equal material for over performance.

[ElectionsGuy]

More than 10%, less than 20%. And probably toward the lesser end of that spectrum.

[TDAS04]

Voted option 3 (16-20%), but that may be generous.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

no more than 12-13%

[Mr. Reactionary]

Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

This. IIRC in 2013 Ken Cuccinelli (white) outperformed E.W. Jackson (Black) among Democrats according to exit polls.

[eric82oslo]

I'd say, against Hillary, definitely less than 20%. Probably even less than 15%. Against any other candidate though, Biden and Sanders included, it could at least get as high as 30% ("easily"). By the way, I think almost certainly that Sanders would do better than Biden amongst blacks when Carson was the opponent!! (I know 98-99% of you strongly disagree with me on this one).

[zs4321]

25-30%

[eric82oslo]

Just because he's black does not mean he will win a better portion of the black vote than any other Republican nominee has.

It probably does. People are more likely to like people who are like them.

No. What comes out of his mouth really isn't any different than what other Republicans say. That does not equal material for over performance.

One thing is words out of mouth. Like a bulimic.

Another thing entirely is character and personality.

You consider one of them all important and the other completely irrelevant. Well, the American people aren't quite that stupid or else Santorum, Trump or Cruz would all have been presidents decades if not centuries ago.

(To be spewing hatred is very, very, very seldom, may I say hardly ever, a recipe to success when the Oval Office is about to be reshuffled.)

[Ljube]

20 AT THE MOST

20 AT THE LEAST

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

In 2012, 7% of African Americans considered themselves Republican and 22% considered themselves Independent. Carson COULD get 26-30% of the AA vote based on this. (SOURCE: http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/04/section-9-trends-in-party-affiliation/)

Realistically I'd peg him at 16-20% if he's the nominee.

[longtimelurker]

Ken Blackwell got about 18% of the AA vote when he ran for statewide office in Ohio (but not governor).  So I figure Carson could get between 10 and 20%.

[Vosem]

"Could" and "probably will" are different things. I doubt Carson would do much better than low double-digits (10%-15%), but Republican statewide candidates have won up to 30% of the vote, so the black people are out there, in principle, for Carson to receive 26%-30%, which is how I voted. "Could" implies you're looking for a maximum.

[Kingpoleon]

More than 10%, less than 20%. And probably toward the lesser end of that spectrum.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wow people really think AAs are morons.

If he got to 10% that would be a miracle

[King]

Guys, black people aren't conservative. It has nothing to do with race. Many work government jobs, most use public schools,  public transportation. It doesn't matter how black Ben is. He doesn't share the interests of the black community.

[Flake]

The absolute most I could see him getting is 15%. Getting 10% would be incredibly difficult and Carson's message doesn't exactly resonate with black voters.