Åland parliamentary and municipal elections - October 18, 2015

[politicus]

The Åland Islands, which is a Swedish speaking autonomous area in Finland, will hold elections to their 30 member Lagting and 16 municipalities (1 town (the capital Mariehamn), 9 rural parishes on the main island and 6 skerries parishes) on October 18.

http://www.val.ax/lagtingsval/

Åland has 29,000 inhabitants. 40% of the population lives in the capital Mariehamn, 50% on the rest of the main island Fasta Åland ("Solid Åland") and the rest are spread on some of the 6,500 skerries and islets to the east.

Their party system is similar to "the core" of the Swedish with Social Democrats, Centre, Liberals, Moderates and recently also xenophobic Åland Democrats, but no left wing party, Greens or Christian Democrats. In addition they have a separatist party wanting to establish an independent Åland (because every autonomous island group needs one of those ) polling around 10%.

The balance in the current Lagting is:

Åland Social Democrats 6
Åland Centre 7
Liberals for Åland 6
Moderate Unity  8
Future of Åland  3

During the previous term the MPs from the independent centre-right party the Non-aligned Coalition (Obunden Samling) (which originally split from Centre) merged into the Moderates to become Moderate Unity, but the rump of the party is running again and an anti-immigration/refugee list called Ålandic Democracy will be on the ballot. So a seven party system now. As you can see Åland isn't exactly a leftist kind of place.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

How feasible would an independent Aland be?

[DavidB.]

Of what parties does the current government consist? Is there a tradition of minimum-winning coalitions or of "broader" coalitions? Which parties are likely to be forming the next government?

[politicus]

How feasible would an independent Aland be?

Well, they could probably finance the necessary services - and maybe make a NZ/Cook Island style voluntary association with Sweden if need be. But there are other problems.

They wanted to join Sweden after WW1, but the League of Nations awarded them to Finland and guaranteed their autonomy. There have been several international treaties guaranteeing they are demilitarized and remain neutral since the end of the Crimean War, it was last established in the 1947 allied peace treaty with Finland, but this does not necessarily constitute a hindrance for secession if demilitarization is upheld (which it of course will be). Still, it might give Russia a veto against any association with Sweden - even a free association with full Ålandic legal sovereignty.

They are not recognized as a sovereign people under international law, as the Faroese and Greenlanders, so they do not have a right to declare independence, and would have to negotiate with Finland, and I doubt a Finnish government would accept secession.

So quite difficult.

[politicus]

Of what parties does the current government consist? Is there a tradition of minimum-winning coalitions or of "broader" coalitions? Which parties are likely to be forming the next government?

The current one is very broad: Social Democrats, Centre and Moderate Unity with 21 seats combined with Camilla Gunell from the SocDems as Lantråd ("Prime Minister"). The previous Liberal-Centre coalition had 18 seats and was minimum winning. Basically the Liberals lost four seats and their dominant position and the other non-separatists formed a non-Liberal alliance.

[politicus]

Actually I was too hasty with the parties running. There are two more. The rump of the Non-aligned Coalition is running and a new anti-immigration/refugees party called Ålandic Democracy is running as well. Their local paper Ålandstidningen has a poll today (based on a 300 sample):

http://www.val2015.ax/val-2015/lib-vinner-s-forlorar

Åland Social Democrats 4
Åland Centre 7
Liberals for Åland 7
Non-aligned Coalition 2
Moderate Unity  6
Future of Åland  3
Ålandic Democracy 1

So Moderate Unity loses two to the continuity part of the Non-aligned Coalition and SocDems lose two, while Libs and Ålandic Democracy gain one each.

[politicus]

Of election themes Centre wants Åland to have its own Minister of Foreign Affairs and let the government parties get all 7 seats in the Åland Healthcare Board instead of dividing it proportionally between all parties and the mainstream parties (SocDems, Centre, Libs and Moderate Unity) want to reduce the number of municipalities to 3-6. Which is supported by 66% in a poll, 29% wanting to keep their current 16. No info of the three other parties position on this, but presumably at least one of them is against this (which could be why the Non-aligned Coalition is back from the death, but guessing here).

http://www.val2015.ax/nyheter-val-2015/stor-majoritet-farre-kommuner

Ålandstidningen has a paywall and I am not motivated enough to actually buy articles about Åland. Gustaf has some Ålandic contacts, so presumably he can tell us a bit more.

[politicus]

The current municipalities:



Mariehamn 11,459   

Countryside:
Jomala 4,628
Finström 2,547
Lemland 1,966   
Saltvik 1,810
Hammarland 1,522   
Sund    1,032   
Eckerö 921   
Geta   496
Lumparland 409   

Archipelago:
Föglö 564   
Brändö 469   
Vårdö 442   
Kumlinge 322   
Kökar 254   
Sottunga 100   

[politicus]

The parties:

The Åland Social Democrats (ÅSD) is the only centre-left party and the oldest political organization on the islands. It didn't get organized as a party until 1971, but the Mariehamn Worker's Association dates back to 1906. In favour of continued autonomy and demilitarization. Main goals: full employment, better public healthcare and sustainable growth. Won the 2011 election and Camilla Gunell (45) became Lantråd for an ideologically heterogenous anti-Liberal alliance, but she seems to be unpopular now. Has much closer ties to SAP than the Finnish Social Democrats.

No other leftist parties are currently active. In the 50s and 60s the Communist Party of Finland had a presence on Åland. In the late 70s and early 80s former Communists establish a Socialist party called Ålandic Left, but it never got off the ground. The Ålandic Greens were briefly represented in the Lagting 1987-91 with two seats, but folded in the 90s.

[politicus]

The mainstream centre right

In the mid-60s the entire Ålandic centre-right was organized in the Ålandic Unity electoral association, which was an alliance of Indies with no program and no other purpose than fielding candidates against the SocDems and the Communists. In 1966-67 an attempt was made to transform it into a broad tent centre-right party called the Ålandic Union. But the rural folks started feeling uneasy about Mariehamn politicians dominating this project and founded the Villages and Skerries Electoral Association (LoS) instead. A group of urban Social Liberal teachers and shop owners then founded the Mariehamn Liberals and this left the urban right wingers alone in the Ålandic Union. They then founded Freeminded Co-operation in 1967, which became the domination party in Mariehamn municipal politics. In 1971 the more moderate types broke out and founded the Freeminded Co-operation's Future List.

Meanwhile LoS established itself as the dominant political force in Åland until it split in the mid 70s in the (mainly urban) Liberals and the rurals in Centre. In 1975 the liberal wing split from LoS as the LoS Liberals and in 1978 teamed up with the Mariehamn Liberals (by then renamed the Centrist Liberals) to found the Liberals for Åland.

The Liberals seem to be typical centrist Euro style Social Liberals with a Swedish PC twist. They are the biggest party with 650 members and the only ones to have a party organization in all 16 municipalities. They won the 2007 election with 10 seats and Viveka Ericsson became the first female Lantråd in coalition with Centre, but lost the folowing election big time (a faith seemingly also awaiting the next female PM SocDem Camilla Gunell this time - female PMs seems to be out of luck up there). The party claims to work for "sustainable economic, social, environmental policies". They are fairly Green, feminist and pro-immigration. Wants to "promote an attitude change towards gender equality from kindergarten onwards". Positive towards immigration and opening  up the hembygd (= Heimat in German, not sure how to get the right connotations in English) status to non-citizens. Hembygd status currently require Finnish citizenship, five year residency and a language test in Swedish and is required if you want to buy real estate or start a business. Led by 49 year old physician Katrin Sjøgren, who is perceived as most likely to succeed Gunnell as Lamtråd (making her the third consecutive female PM, lets see if she too will be hit by the "Ålandic female PM curse" like her two predecessors). The party claims to have "a pragmatic view" on autonomy.

Ålandic Centre was founded in 1976 by the remaing rural core of LoC after the Liberals had split. In 1978 the moderate wing of the urban based Freeminded Co-operation merged into them and at their first election in 1979 they got 42,3 % of the votes and 14 of 30 seats in the Lagting making them by far the biggest party. Due to urbanisation and infighting it has been all down hill from there - including a couple of party splits in 1987 and 2003 - but since the Liberals got clobbered in the 2011 election they are currently the biggest party in parliament again with 23%. Their leader Roger Nordlund is the Deputy PM.
Still represents rural interests and local communities an is otherwise fairly centrist. Wants to push the limits of the autonomy agreement and among other things establish their own little foreign service headed by a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The Non-aligned Coalition (ObS) was founded in 1987 by young members of Centre tired of the traditionalist approach to politics of the "old hicks" running the party by then. OS is populist, focused on the interests of small business owners, pro-increased autonomy/anti-Finnish interference and Eurosceptic. They allow members to campaign for their hobby horses (such as abolishing tv-license) if they don't  contradict their (rudimentary) platform. The party's four MPs and much of the organization joined the Moderates in 2014 to form Moderate Unity, but parts of the membership stayed outside this merger and OS is running again this time. Not sure on their views of immigration, but logically they would be against.

In 2003 a former Minister of Business Anders Eriksson (55) split from Centre and founded the separatist Future of Åland, which apart from the independence issue is a centrist party.  

In 2011 the Freeminded Co-operation changed its name to the Moderates of Åland to better signal they were a Conservative party. They got a 47% increase last time and 4 seats after the merge with most of the Non-aligned Coalition in 2014 the resulting Moderate Unity is now the biggest party in the Lagting.
Wants to make Åland “wealthier and freer” by pursuing free market and low tax policies and emphasize promoting Ålandic traditions and culture. Status quo oriented on autonomy before the merger. Not sure how teaming up with the Eurosceptic Finland bashers in OS has affected their policies on these things (and whether the Ålandic autonomy agreement would even allow them to stay out of the EU Faroese style).

So unlike in Finland Liberalism has been the dominant ideology on the Ålandic centre-right - even their Conservatives are descended from right wing Liberals and their agrarians are Liberal Agrarians - and it is otherwise influenced by the continuous Mariehamn vs. countryside dichotomy as well as the relationship to Finland. Three of the five parties are fairly centrist, ironically leaving the Moderates as the main non-moderate party.

[politicus]

Ålandic Democracy is a single issue anti-refugee party founded by Stephan Toivonen, who ironically for an Ålandic nativist lives in Portugal and has a Finnish surname.

Is against what he calls "refugees from high risk countries". After a unanimous decision in the Landdag Åland is set to receive 350 Syrians - a relatively high share in a 29,000 population. Toivonen describes this as "a sociological experiment".

Otherwise campaigning on national and gender equality + equal rights and treatment for all Ålanders, but restrictive border control at the ferries. Claims "love and work immigration is enough" to sustain the economy.

So a touch of Liberalism/equal rights agenda even in the anti-immigration party.

It seems ObS has launched a election commercial called "Restrictive refugee policy", so they are where you would expect them to be. Despite voting for receiving refugees in the Mariehamn City Council.
Which Toivonen of course ridicules them for.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Ålandic Democracy is a single issue anti-refugee party founded by Stephan Toivonen, who ironically for an Ålandic nativist lives in Portugal and has a Finnish surname.

Is against what he calls "refugees from high risk countries". After a unanimous decision in the Landdag Åland is set to receive 350 Syrians - a relatively high share in a 29,000 population. Toivonen describes this as "a sociological experiment".

Otherwise campaigning on national and gender equality + equal rights and treatment for all Ålanders, but restrictive border control at the ferries. Claims "love and work immigration is enough" to sustain the economy.

So a touch of Liberalism/equal rights agenda even in the anti-immigration party.

It seems ObS has launched a election commercial called "Restrictive refugee policy", so they are where you would expect them to be. Despite voting for receiving refugees in the Mariehamn City Council.
Which Toivonen of course ridicules them for.

Very impressive summary of the situation on Åland! Makes me feel rather ignorant, living 100 km or so from Mariehamn, and having no clue about their parties etc.

Ålandic Democracy does indeed sound rather liberal for an anti-immigration party, especially in the context of the currently rather restrictive immigration policy, even when it comes to people from the mainland! The difference compared to the other parties appears to be quite small.