3rd quarter fundraising megathread

[Mr. Morden]

The Hill says Trump raised $3.8 million:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/257102-winners-and-losers-in-presidential-money-race

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[mencken]

Why would anyone donate to someone whose entire shtick is exaggerating his own wealth?

[Likely Voter]

It hasn't been reported yet but Pataki's report is on the FEC website and it isn't pretty

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Basically his campaign is broke, if it weren't for a $20k loan from Pataki it would be in the red. It is hard to see how he doesn't drop out unless he is willing to keep pumping his own money into the campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

So on the Republican side, I guess we’re now just waiting for Graham, Huckabee, and Santorum?

On the Dem. side, still haven't heard anything from O'Malley, Chafee, or Webb.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/fec-2016-campaign-finance-fundraising-candidates-214825

Huckabee raised $1.2 million, spent $1.4 million, has $761,000 cash on hand and $133,000 in debts.

Chafee raised $15,000, spent $60,000, and has $285,000 cash on hand (remember that most of that money is a loan that he gave himself last quarter).

Lessig raised $1.0 million, spent $442,000, and has $574,000 cash on hand.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio had said that he raised $6 million this quarter, but I guess he was rounding up from $5.7 million:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/15/rubio-campaign-raises-nearly-6-million-but-sees-low-small-dollar-donors/

Also:

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[Likely Voter]

Lindsey Graham is another guy spending faster than taking it in (from FEC page)

Raised $1,052,657.62
Spent: $1,984,167.60
Cash: $1,651,309.13

[Mehmentum]

So....

Democrats:
Clinton: 30M
Sanders: 26M
O'Malley: 1.3M
Lessig: 1M
Webb: 0.7M
Chafee: 0.01M (lol)

Republicans:
Carson: 20M
Bush: 13M
Cruz: 12M
Fiorina: 6.8M
Rubio: 5.7M
Kasich: 4.4M
Christie: 4.2M
Trump: 3.9M
Paul: 2.5M
Huckabee: 1.2M
Graham: 1M
Jindal: 0.5M
Santorum: 0.4M
Pataki: 0.1M
Gilmore: 0.1M

Sanders and Clinton both have very strong fundraising totals.  Carson, Bush, and Cruz do the best by far among the Republicans.  Paul and Huckabee's fundraising are becoming anemic.  

[Mehmentum]

Hilariously, Walker out-raised both Rubio and Fiorina in Q3 (7.4M), despite his campaign entering a death spiral and dying partway through the quarter.

[Likely Voter]

Hilariously, Walker out-raised both Rubio and Fiorina in Q3 (7.4M), despite his campaign entering a death spiral and dying partway through the quarter.

Those numbers are for a whole quarter, Walker's numbers were heading down while the others were heading up. Plus Walker was spending more than both. If he was still in the race now he would be totally broke and forced to cut staff in a huge way. I guess he didn't want to go through with that.

But his experience should be a lesson to other campaigns, notably Ben Carson. His campaign is blowing through cash too and they are really spending way too much on consultants. I think as a political neophyte he is being taken for a ride when you look at his expenses. And what happens if he has a dip like Walker did? Could his high flying campaign pivot to something leaner?

[Likely Voter]

Webb's numbers
Raised $0.7m   
Spent $0.4m   
Cash: $0.3m

O'Malley appears to be literally leaving it to the last minute.

[Likely Voter]

Santorum (from FEC)

6. Cash on Hand at BEGINNING of the Reporting Period      232,018.26
7. Total Receipts This Period      387,985.42
8. Subtotal (6 + 7)      620,003.68
9. Total Disbursements This Period      393,477.76
10. Cash on Hand at CLOSE of the Reporting Period      226,525.92


BTW (LOL) Santorum's 2012 campaign is still $450,408.48 in debt

[Likely Voter]

O'Malley squeaks in showing that he is spending faster than he is raising

6. Cash on Hand at BEGINNING of the Reporting Period      1,314,136.02
7. Total Receipts This Period      1,282,820.92
8. Subtotal (6 + 7)      2,596,956.94
9. Total Disbursements This Period      1,790,970.11
10. Cash on Hand at CLOSE of the Reporting Period      805,986.83

[Mr. Morden]

So who are all the candidates who ended up spending more $ than they raised this quarter?

Chafee, O’Malley, Santorum, Graham, Huckabee, Pataki, Paul, Jindal…am I forgetting anyone?

How long can those folks sustain their campaigns at this rate?  They should have just followed Gilmore’s example, only spending $71,000 for the quarter because he never leaves his house.

[Mr. Morden]

This story says that Trump spent $5.6 million in Q3, but that seems to be much higher than what’s listed by other sources:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/15/ben-carson-tops-republican-field-in-fundraising-do/?

So what are the real #s for Trump?  Is the $5.6 million actually the $ spent by his campaign in Q2 and Q3 combined?

[Likely Voter]

DEM   Raised   Spent   Cash
Clinton   29.9   25.8   33.0
Sanders   26.2   11.3   27.1
O'Malley   1.3   1.8   0.8
Lessig   1.0   0.4   0.6
Webb   0.7   0.4   0.3
Chafee   0.0   0.1   0.3


GOP   Raised   Spent   Cash
Carson   20.8   14.2   11.3
Bush   13.4   11.5   10.3
Cruz   12.2   7.0   13.8
Walker   7.4   6.4   1.0
Fiorina   6.8   2.2   5.5
Rubio   5.7   4.6   11.0
Kasich   4.4   1.7   2.6
Christie   4.2   2.8   1.4
Trump   3.9   4.2   0.5
Paul   2.5   4.5   2.1
Huckabee   1.2   1.4   0.8
Graham   1.1   2.0   1.6
Jindal   0.6   0.8   0.3
Santorum   0.4   0.4   0.2
Perry   0.3   1.1   0.0
Pataki   0.1   0.3   0.0
Gilmore   0.1   0.1   0.0


red  spent > raised

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Do we have a good breakdown by size of donor? This is a good source through quarter 2.

http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/president/2016/Table2_Individual%20Donors.pdf

[Tender Branson]

They should have just followed Gilmore’s example, only spending $71,000 for the quarter because he never leaves his house.

Gilmore has an excellent strategy by not leaving his house: Because he's not invited to the next debate, he just hires someone to poison the other 14 candidates when they are at the next debate, making him the automatic frontrunner after the other 14 are "out" ...

PS: please unsticky, Mr. Morden.

[eric82oslo]

It seems to me that Sanders is about to overtake Clinton in cash on hand in the next few weeks, due to her having almost thrice the burn rate of him.

[eric82oslo]

What really means something is of course the cash on hand numbers, not the amount raised (see how far that brought Walker in the end lol). The only 11 candidates to still be millionaires when it comes to cash on hand are these, ranked:

1. Clinton: $33m
2. Sanders: $27.1m

3. Cruz: $13.8m
4. Carson: $11.3m
5. Rubio: $11m
6. Bush: $10.3m

7. Fiorina: $5.5m

8. Kasich: $2.6m
9. Paul: $2.1m
10. Graham: $1.6m (!)
11. Christie: $1.4m

Maybe Graham will just stay it out (mouth watering at the thought of South Carolina), waiting for an opportunity to finally be in one of those top 10 debates once the other minor candidates drop out one after the other.

[Likely Voter]

Do we have a good breakdown by size of donor? This is a good source through quarter 2.

http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/president/2016/Table2_Individual%20Donors.pdf

This interactive table has some data by donor size.
http://infogr.am/2016_third_quarter_fundraising_totals

As expected Carson and Sanders have lots of small donors, Bush and Clinton rely on bigger donors.

[Likely Voter]

Hillary's Super PAC raised $25M during Q3 and the "Hillary Victory Fund" raised another $3M
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-16/clinton-campaign-applying-08-spending-lessons-to-try-and-defeat-sanders

[Mr. Morden]

Do we have a good breakdown by size of donor? This is a good source through quarter 2.

http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/president/2016/Table2_Individual%20Donors.pdf

This interactive table has some data by donor size.
http://infogr.am/2016_third_quarter_fundraising_totals

As expected Carson and Sanders have lots of small donors, Bush and Clinton rely on bigger donors.

From that link, % of money raised from donors of $200 or less:

Sanders 77%
Trump 71%
Carson 60%
Huckabee 59%
Paul 51%
Fiorina 48%
Cruz 43%
Webb 42%
Walker 36%
Rubio 21%
Santorum 20%
Chafee 20%
Clinton 17%
Perry 17%
Jindal 13%
Kasich 12%
O’Malley 11%
Bush 7%
Graham 5%
Pataki 4%
Christie 3%
Gilmore 1%

[Likely Voter]

This story says that Trump spent $5.6 million in Q3, but that seems to be much higher than what’s listed by other sources:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/15/ben-carson-tops-republican-field-in-fundraising-do/?

So what are the real #s for Trump?  Is the $5.6 million actually the $ spent by his campaign in Q2 and Q3 combined?

Trump's actual FEC report sheds light on all of this. The $5.6M is the total to date, and Q3 is $4.2M. Also so far Trump has only spent $100k of his own dollars. He also lent his campaign $1.8M but he can eventually pay himself back with contributions from his rubes supporters. Also many of the payees are Trump business, including Trump Towers so he is paying himself. And there is even a line item for a direct payment to "Trump, Donald" in Q3 for $45,224.00.

So for all the talk about being self-funded, the Trump campaign so far appears to be mostly funded by small donors. And even though the campaign says donations are 'unsolicited' their website has two prominent 'DONATE' buttons, so I guess they mean they don't hold fundraisers.

If Trump never runs TV ads, it is possible he will never really have to spend much or any of his own money and being that he is using his own companies as some of his vendors, it is actually possible he can make a profit off his campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

This story says that Trump spent $5.6 million in Q3, but that seems to be much higher than what’s listed by other sources:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/15/ben-carson-tops-republican-field-in-fundraising-do/?

So what are the real #s for Trump?  Is the $5.6 million actually the $ spent by his campaign in Q2 and Q3 combined?

Trump's actual FEC report sheds light on all of this. The $5.6M is the total to date, and Q3 is $4.2M.

Wait, so he spent $4.2 million this past quarter?  That's quite a bit higher than the $1.4 million given in the table you posted a few posts upthread.