3rd quarter fundraising megathread

[Likely Voter]

It's that time again, so this is the thread to show us the money.

Quicklinks:
Atlas Q2 2015 fundraising megathread

Atlas Q3 2011 fundraising megathread

NYT 2015 fundraising summary (campaigns and outside groups)

FEC Presidential Portal

[Likely Voter]

First up, looks like Ben Carson had a very good quarter.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/26/politics/ben-carson-20-million-fundraising/

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And $10M of that is in September alone. I would not be surprised to see Carson being the number one GOPer for the quarter (for actual campaign donations), he was third in Q2 behind Bush and Cruz.

[Likely Voter]

When full data will be released?

The legal requirement for campaigns is 15 days to report to the FEC. Outside groups and super pacs have different rules, I think that is 30 days.

[Likely Voter]

Saw this tidbit in Breitbart about Ted Cruz

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This will probably put him in 2nd behind Carson depending on where Bush shows up

[Likely Voter]

Rubio's Super PAC isn't really where the action is, he is relying on an even more secretive outside type of group.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/us/politics/nonprofit-masks-dark-money-ads-backing-marco-rubio.html?_r=0

I suspect that at some point Trump will try to make a point about how Rubio is being funded by this super secret fund.

[Likely Voter]

Bush raised a ton of Super Pac money during the first six months of this year, but not a lot of actual campaign money. In Q2 he only had a couple of weeks so actually it was pretty good on a $/day basis, but it looks like he will raise the same amount in Q3 with 3 whole months, putting him well behind Carson and possibly behind Cruz. It is telling that it appears Bush is waiting until the last minute to release his fundraising (only 3 days until the legal deadline).

Remember that campaign cash is worth more than Super PAC cash. His Super PAC is currently paying around 4 times as much for TV airtime as his campaign is paying (because campaigns legally get the discount rate).

[Likely Voter]

Bush raises $13.4 Million in 3rd Quarter.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/15/politics/jeb-bush-fundraising-2016-elections/index.html

That would put Bush in 2nd place (among GOP) for the quarter (about $1m ahead of Cruz but ~$7m behind Carson). However Bush appears to be 4th in terms of cash on hand with $10m, behind Carson, Cruz and Rubio. Bush started the quarter with $8.5m so the burn rate is high and only getting higher now that they are spending on advertising (even if he has switched from private jets to commercial).

[Likely Voter]

Bush raises $13.4 Million in 3rd Quarter.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/15/politics/jeb-bush-fundraising-2016-elections/index.html

That would put Bush in 2nd place (among GOP) for the quarter (about $1m ahead of Cruz but ~$7m behind Carson). However Bush appears to be 3rd in terms of cash on hand with $10m, behind Carson and Cruz (who has $13.5m). Bush started the quarter with $8.5m so the burn rate is high and only getting higher now that they are spending on advertising (even if he has switched from private jets to commercial).

Isn't Bush also behind Rubio in cash on hand?  ($11 million vs. $10 million):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=219971.msg4752675#msg4752675

I was actually fixing that as you typed this

[Likely Voter]

On the GOP side here are estimates so far

Candidate Raised COH
Carson   20.0   12.0
Bush   13.4   10.0
Cruz   12.0   13.5
Fiorina   6.8   5.5
Rubio   6.0   11.0
Christie   4.2   1.4
Paul   2.5   2.0
Jindal   0.6   0.3

still waiting for half the field.

[Likely Voter]

this Politico article sums up the fundraising numbers and appears to be being updated as more come in
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/fec-2016-campaign-finance-fundraising-candidates-214825

Bloomberg also has a nice table that is being updated
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-october-fec-filings/table/

[Likely Voter]

The FEC has started posting the detailed reports
http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/2015/Q3/

So far just Carly, Jindal, Perry and Paul

[Likely Voter]

Kasich
raised $4.38 million
cash on hand $2.66 million
spent $1.7 million
(Campaign cited 72 days to raise money during quarter vs 92 days for most candidates)

[Likely Voter]

It hasn't been reported yet but Pataki's report is on the FEC website and it isn't pretty

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Basically his campaign is broke, if it weren't for a $20k loan from Pataki it would be in the red. It is hard to see how he doesn't drop out unless he is willing to keep pumping his own money into the campaign.

[Likely Voter]

Lindsey Graham is another guy spending faster than taking it in (from FEC page)

Raised $1,052,657.62
Spent: $1,984,167.60
Cash: $1,651,309.13

[Likely Voter]

Hilariously, Walker out-raised both Rubio and Fiorina in Q3 (7.4M), despite his campaign entering a death spiral and dying partway through the quarter.

Those numbers are for a whole quarter, Walker's numbers were heading down while the others were heading up. Plus Walker was spending more than both. If he was still in the race now he would be totally broke and forced to cut staff in a huge way. I guess he didn't want to go through with that.

But his experience should be a lesson to other campaigns, notably Ben Carson. His campaign is blowing through cash too and they are really spending way too much on consultants. I think as a political neophyte he is being taken for a ride when you look at his expenses. And what happens if he has a dip like Walker did? Could his high flying campaign pivot to something leaner?

[Likely Voter]

Webb's numbers
Raised $0.7m   
Spent $0.4m   
Cash: $0.3m

O'Malley appears to be literally leaving it to the last minute.

[Likely Voter]

Santorum (from FEC)

6. Cash on Hand at BEGINNING of the Reporting Period      232,018.26
7. Total Receipts This Period      387,985.42
8. Subtotal (6 + 7)      620,003.68
9. Total Disbursements This Period      393,477.76
10. Cash on Hand at CLOSE of the Reporting Period      226,525.92


BTW (LOL) Santorum's 2012 campaign is still $450,408.48 in debt

[Likely Voter]

O'Malley squeaks in showing that he is spending faster than he is raising

6. Cash on Hand at BEGINNING of the Reporting Period      1,314,136.02
7. Total Receipts This Period      1,282,820.92
8. Subtotal (6 + 7)      2,596,956.94
9. Total Disbursements This Period      1,790,970.11
10. Cash on Hand at CLOSE of the Reporting Period      805,986.83

[Likely Voter]

DEM   Raised   Spent   Cash
Clinton   29.9   25.8   33.0
Sanders   26.2   11.3   27.1
O'Malley   1.3   1.8   0.8
Lessig   1.0   0.4   0.6
Webb   0.7   0.4   0.3
Chafee   0.0   0.1   0.3


GOP   Raised   Spent   Cash
Carson   20.8   14.2   11.3
Bush   13.4   11.5   10.3
Cruz   12.2   7.0   13.8
Walker   7.4   6.4   1.0
Fiorina   6.8   2.2   5.5
Rubio   5.7   4.6   11.0
Kasich   4.4   1.7   2.6
Christie   4.2   2.8   1.4
Trump   3.9   4.2   0.5
Paul   2.5   4.5   2.1
Huckabee   1.2   1.4   0.8
Graham   1.1   2.0   1.6
Jindal   0.6   0.8   0.3
Santorum   0.4   0.4   0.2
Perry   0.3   1.1   0.0
Pataki   0.1   0.3   0.0
Gilmore   0.1   0.1   0.0


red  spent > raised

[Likely Voter]

Do we have a good breakdown by size of donor? This is a good source through quarter 2.

http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/president/2016/Table2_Individual%20Donors.pdf

This interactive table has some data by donor size.
http://infogr.am/2016_third_quarter_fundraising_totals

As expected Carson and Sanders have lots of small donors, Bush and Clinton rely on bigger donors.

[Likely Voter]

Hillary's Super PAC raised $25M during Q3 and the "Hillary Victory Fund" raised another $3M
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-16/clinton-campaign-applying-08-spending-lessons-to-try-and-defeat-sanders

[Likely Voter]

This story says that Trump spent $5.6 million in Q3, but that seems to be much higher than what’s listed by other sources:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/15/ben-carson-tops-republican-field-in-fundraising-do/?

So what are the real #s for Trump?  Is the $5.6 million actually the $ spent by his campaign in Q2 and Q3 combined?

Trump's actual FEC report sheds light on all of this. The $5.6M is the total to date, and Q3 is $4.2M. Also so far Trump has only spent $100k of his own dollars. He also lent his campaign $1.8M but he can eventually pay himself back with contributions from his rubes supporters. Also many of the payees are Trump business, including Trump Towers so he is paying himself. And there is even a line item for a direct payment to "Trump, Donald" in Q3 for $45,224.00.

So for all the talk about being self-funded, the Trump campaign so far appears to be mostly funded by small donors. And even though the campaign says donations are 'unsolicited' their website has two prominent 'DONATE' buttons, so I guess they mean they don't hold fundraisers.

If Trump never runs TV ads, it is possible he will never really have to spend much or any of his own money and being that he is using his own companies as some of his vendors, it is actually possible he can make a profit off his campaign.

[Likely Voter]

That table was the Bloomberg table
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-october-fec-filings/table/

They appear to have messed up with Trump. My only guess is they took the number 4,159,474.93 and mistakenly rounded that to 4.1 and then reversed it to 1.4.   I will fix it on my table.