NBC/WSJ national poll: D: Clinton 42% Sanders 35% Biden 17%; R: Trump 21% Carson 20%
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  NBC/WSJ national poll: D: Clinton 42% Sanders 35% Biden 17%; R: Trump 21% Carson 20%
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ national poll: D: Clinton 42% Sanders 35% Biden 17%; R: Trump 21% Carson 20%  (Read 2304 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: September 27, 2015, 08:27:12 AM »

NBC/WSJ poll, conducted Sept. 20-24:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/presidential-announcement-speech-guide-n374901




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Beezer
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2015, 08:31:44 AM »

Comparison with July:



Jeb?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2015, 08:33:23 AM »


That information is already in my initial post, except I don't include the fancy American flag graphics.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2015, 08:43:44 AM »

Hmm, look like the possibility that the real actual support of Trump is in the low 20s (CNN, Gravis Marketing, Bloomberg, and this poll).

However, I want to point out.  That during the end of July period that NBC poll came out.  There are 5 polls around at same time.  Reuters can be round up at 30%, Gravis Marketing and Emerson put Trump over 30%, Rassmussen put Trump at 26%.

Only NBC poll put Trump in the teens.  Even compare to the overlaps polls of Morning Consult and Quinnipiac who start collect data earlier but during the same period of July, NBC poll was still the only one had Trump in the teens.  The set of polls came later in August propel Trump passed the 20 mark.  Only polls that agree with NBC/WSJ polls were the ones that came before it but didn't overlaps any of the day.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2015, 08:48:38 AM »

From the period of May, June, July, August, and September, NBC/WSJ was the only poll that put Bush in the 20s.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2015, 09:00:01 AM »

Further examine the Dem side of things, of all the recent polls (Septembers and later August), this is the poll that showed the smallest difference between Clinton and Sanders.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2015, 09:55:48 AM »

Kasich at 6? Makes me skeptical.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2015, 09:59:57 AM »

Bernie!
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2015, 10:06:28 AM »


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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2015, 10:07:24 AM »

But yeah, IDK if NBC is the most reliable pollster...
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Beezer
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2015, 10:07:32 AM »

That information is already in my initial post, except I don't include the fancy American flag graphics.


Always use fancy American flag graphics.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2015, 10:09:54 AM »

Why does the chart say 9/15 if it aas conducted 9/20-24?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2015, 10:37:11 AM »

Why does the chart say 9/15 if it aas conducted 9/20-24?

Because this is the year 2015.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2015, 10:52:24 AM »

R sample = 230 voters, MOE 6.5%. The "tie" could be a healthy lead for either Trump or Carson.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2015, 11:09:10 AM »

Incidentally, Chafee fails to reach 1% yet again.  Still unable to qualify for the debate.  He has two weeks to fix that.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2015, 11:36:43 AM »

Kasichmentum

Strong numbers for Rubio too.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2015, 12:00:57 PM »

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BlueSwan
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2015, 12:56:39 PM »

R sample = 230 voters, MOE 6.5%. The "tie" could be a healthy lead for either Trump or Carson.
N=230?? That's crazy low. Useless poll.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2015, 03:06:15 PM »

Incidentally, Chafee fails to reach 1% yet again.  Still unable to qualify for the debate.  He has two weeks to fix that.


It's not looking good for him.

The other two have already qualified, correct?
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Flake
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2015, 03:12:17 PM »

Incidentally, Chafee fails to reach 1% yet again.  Still unable to qualify for the debate.  He has two weeks to fix that.


It's not looking good for him.

The other two have already qualified, correct?

Yes, O'Malley and Webb will be at the debate.
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2015, 04:10:39 PM »

MOE is kind of large. But it's truly epic that in the poll without Biden, Hillary went from a 60 point lead to a 15 point lead in just 3 months.
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Why
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2015, 03:27:08 AM »

Sanders has no chance against Clinton, this poll does not change that.

Trump has clearly lost some support following the debate. From perhaps 30% just before the debate to perhaps 22% now.

Maybe an indication that Carson is recovering from his poor debate performance. With his very high favorables it was always possible
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2015, 10:55:30 AM »

MOE is kind of large. But it's truly epic that in the poll without Biden, Hillary went from a 60 point lead to a 15 point lead in just 3 months.
That lead will continue to dwindle. She's already at a 7 point grabbing distance w/ Biden. That's a debate blunder, and then she's being talked about for her own concessional MSNBC show.
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pikachu
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2015, 11:51:17 PM »

Rubio had a nice surge. It'd be interesting to see how that translated in New Hampshire.
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