Taiwanese election, Jan 2016

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So yes. I assumed jaichind will fill us up with the details of this race, but from what I know of his views he is probably not ... happy with the expected outcome of this race. As you probably know, Taiwanese politics is split between the pan-Blue coalition who are broadly right-wing and identify with Chinese Nationalism and the pan-Green coalition who are broadly left-wing and identify as Taiwanese nationalists. Taiwanese politics is a curious game, as both sides have long-term goals, but making any steps towards these aims would be so controversial everybody has to shuffle around with symbols and secret pacts without anybody else noticing. (Very much akin to Norn politics in some ways)

The widely expected victor is of the main pan-Green party the Democratic People's Party or DPP, the main party of opposition to the one-party state that ended in the late 80's. In 1991, the ruling KMT, terrified that the DPP would overtake the legislature (Yuan) and end the Taiwanese government's One China Policy dramatically increased the Presidents power. However by the second presidential election in 2000, the DPP won the Presidency under former Mayor of Taipei Chen Shui-bian. president Chen's time in office would be controversial: having no control of the Yuan, dogged with the Asian financial crisis and corruption charges ("black gold"). He was narrowly reelected in 2004 following a supposed assassination attempt that many claimed was faked - a trial would follow which involved, among others, the forensic scientist from the OJ Simpson trial. (The 2004 election was crazy drama-filled, making Bush vs Gore seem like an election in Singapore by contrast) Chen continued in his second term to "creep" towards sovereignty, annoying the U.S. to the extent they refused to let his plane refuel in NYC or LA and forced him to go to Alaska (poor guy) and the legislature continued to throw roadblocks in his way, trying to recall him on numerous occasions. By 2006, scandal around him and his family were becoming so all-encompassing that even DPP grandee Shih Meng-tee led a sit-in to get rid of the guy. Predictably the DPP were obliterated in the 2008 elections, and Chen and his wife were thrown out in disgrace. The party has now been in the process of rebuilding under chairwoman and nominee Tsai Ing-wen, having already won a stunning victory in last local elections. Tsai has led a cautious and guarded campaign, making overtures to Washington and Beijing that the status quo will be maintained.

The other big party is the KMT. The KMT has a long and interesting history, but in the democratic era of Taiwan, it has had two elected presidents. The very curious Lee-Teng Hui who seemed to change his mind about the entire stated purpose of his party midway through his leadership (and now works on behalf of the Japanese government); and incumbent president Ma Ying-Jeou. Ma has pursued much closer economic and political ties with the PRC to the consternation of the DPP and, apparently, the Taiwanese people, who deeply distrust Beijing. Though Ma, from what I can tell, has led a fairly pragmatic administration; there is rising inequality and third party forces. Many young people simply don't care about the "issue" of reunification and wish for more of a focus on the economy. Although they don't care for DPP's stance as well, they have found the KMT's candidate Hung Hsui-Chu to be a bit of a dud. In fact she lacks governing experience at all, giving rise to a new entry ...

James Soong under his own personal party People's First. A massively popular elected KMT governor of "Taiwan Province" during the 90's, he was the one who - furious at not being nominated - split the pro-unification vote allowing the dreaded Pres Chen into power. In fact, he was widely predicted to win (the KMT's candidate Lien Chan being such a dud that many assume Presideny Lee was sabotaging his own party) until the KMT decided to drag him down with them. In the infamous 2004 election Soong served as the KMT's vice presidential nominee (under none other than former rival Lien Chan), to avoid vote splitting (to accommodate his ego, the KMT top brass apparently promised him unparalleled power.). Following two disasterous runs for Taipei Mayor and for President in 2012, a lot of people wrote Soong off as a bitter has-been. But now, ever the political chancer, Soong has jumped into the race for President. By the latest polls, Soong is overtaking the KMT candidate Hung. Could this be a repeat of 2000?

[politicus]

The very curious Lee-Teng Hui who seemed to change his mind about the entire stated purpose of his party midway through his leadership

In what way?

[politicus]

This is very marginal, but I am curious:

The founder of the Danish People's Party (and current Speaker) Pia Kjærsgaard (68) is known to have very good personal contacts to prominent figures on the right wing of KMT (from her own generation - so rather old now), contacts established through some anti-Communist 80s/90s network I can't remember. I basically only know KMT as a historical party (pre-multi party politics), so how right wing is KMT today? What kind of international contacts do they have? Are there any other contacts to Western New Right/right wing populist parties? How about in Asia?

It has had the odd side effect that apart from EU and Israel, Taiwan and PRC is basically the only foreign policy issue DPP cares about and even if they generally don't give a damn about the right to demonstrate they have been remarkably critical of the Copenhagen police's heavy handed efforts to silence/harass/remove Falun Gong sympathisers and pro-Tibet activists during the Chinese President's last state visit. Kjærsgaard is also the Deputy Chairman of the Danish Taiwanese Society (it's chairman is a former Liberal cabinet Minister).

[Hash]

The very curious Lee-Teng Hui who seemed to change his mind about the entire stated purpose of his party midway through his leadership

In what way?

As President, Lee supported the 'Taiwanization' movement which is basically the idea of emphasizing Taiwan as the centre rather than the old KMT view of China as the centre and Taiwan as an appendage, which led to suspicions during his presidency that he was secretly pro-independence, and indeed after leaving the presidency he was expelled from the KMT and he founded/inspired the foundation of the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which is basically the DPP on steroids supporting the declaration of a 'Republic of Taiwan' and a new constitution.

Then again, Lee appears to be a very odd person all around.

[Hydera]

The very curious Lee-Teng Hui who seemed to change his mind about the entire stated purpose of his party midway through his leadership

In what way?

As President, Lee supported the 'Taiwanization' movement which is basically the idea of emphasizing Taiwan as the centre rather than the old KMT view of China as the centre and Taiwan as an appendage, which led to suspicions during his presidency that he was secretly pro-independence, and indeed after leaving the presidency he was expelled from the KMT and he founded/inspired the foundation of the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which is basically the DPP on steroids supporting the declaration of a 'Republic of Taiwan' and a new constitution.

Then again, Lee appears to be a very odd person all around.

Lee probably joined back when the KMT ran Taiwan in a autocratic semi-totalitarian manner until the 80s so he probably joined to get a career in politics and somehow ended in the , maybe it suprised him. But had the DPP or a party of the like been legal beforehand, he probably would be a member of that and not the KMT which he later off.

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This is very marginal, but I am curious:

The founder of the Danish People's Party (and current Speaker) Pia Kjærsgaard (68) is known to have very good personal contacts to prominent figures on the right wing of KMT (from her own generation - so rather old now), contacts established through some anti-Communist 80s/90s network I can't remember. I basically only know KMT as a historical party (pre-multi party politics), so how right wing is KMT today? What kind of international contacts do they have? Are there any other contacts to Western New Right/right wing populist parties? How about in Asia?

It has had the odd side effect that apart from EU and Israel, Taiwan and PRC is basically the only foreign policy issue DPP cares about and even if they generally don't give a damn about the right to demonstrate they have been remarkably critical of the Copenhagen police's heavy handed efforts to silence/harass/remove Falun Gong sympathisers and pro-Tibet activists during the Chinese President's last state visit. Kjærsgaard is also the Deputy Chairman of the Danish Taiwanese Society (it's chairman is a former Liberal cabinet Minister).

The strangest thing is that nowadays the proper anti-communist option nowadays would probably be the pan-Greens, who infuriate the Chinese Communists so. The KMT really is no different from other such sprawling parties of power like the LDP of Japan and PAP in Singapore - wielding enormous links and influence in the business leadership, unions and bureaucracy. In particular the party has enormous assets - it is by some measures the world's richest political party - controlling vast swathes of banks, investment firms and the majority of Taiwan's media. (The party has since 2000 shed the most ostentatious of its assets though, under somewhat suspicious means)

The party gets most of its strength from the "elite" and descendants of the refugees from the Civil War, but there are some curiosities. For example, Taiwanese aboriginals seem to vastly prefer the KMT to the DPP and its allies, as there is deep resentment between the Hoklo Taiwanese who arrived pre-Civil War (who dominate the DPP) and the aboriginals who have lived there for much longer.

[jaichind]

I am too depressed to write about this election.  I might start writing something in a month or so when the election gets closer.  As my views on the background on the infamous Lee Teng-Hui one can see the end of my posts on

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193763.0

Of course back in the 1980s Lee was in theory for unification while I was pro-independence.  Now I am the radical far right Chinese nationalist determined to back Chinese reunification while Lee is pretty much on the pro-independence fringe. 

[tpfkaw]

The strangest thing is that nowadays the proper anti-communist option nowadays would probably be the pan-Greens, who infuriate the Chinese Communists so.

Not really, the operative modifier is "Chinese," not "Communists."

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The strangest thing is that nowadays the proper anti-communist option nowadays would probably be the pan-Greens, who infuriate the Chinese Communists so.

Not really, the operative modifier is "Chinese," not "Communists."

True, but there's some irony in there. Given history.

There are of course other issues going in the election. One of them is that old Atlas favourite gay marriage (it combines mapmaking with homosexuality, so an ideal topic for your average Atlasian). Gay rights groups in Taiwan seem to be targeting big - the first Asian country to have marriage equality! (Nepal is supposed to have it in its constitution, but we all know how that affair is being dragged out) however they are receiving a certain amount of pushback:

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201509200009.aspx

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SHAKE-UP: KMT have voted to rescind their nomination of Hung Hsui-Chu in light of her terrible polling numbers, replacing her with Eric Chu, Mayor of New Taipei.

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Chu has not significNtly changed the polling presidentially, and it seems many KMT elite are trying to save the furniture in the legislature. Of course, the KMT dogged President Chen in office and the DPP seem to be mobilising to seize a majority for the first time. Now Chu and his allies talk about avoiding "one-party state rule", which is kind of ironic as, y'know, the KMT.

Many supporters of Hung meanwhile are pissed at the KMT for throwing her under the bus - she was running a genial "low-energy" campaign, and some people respect that. Whether she uses this to her own advantage is her choice.

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Obama uses the dying days of the KMT government to splash some arms to Taiwan (obviously giving arms to a DPP government would be a big diplomatic no) Beijing sniffs.

The KMT really are in desperation mode at this point. Chu picked human rights lawyer and former labor minister Jennifer Wang as his running mate tohurt the party's image as elitist, but she has been dogged by allegations of financial shadiness surrounding her properties (which made her sue the journalists and refuse to explicitly deny the claims), and been hit by a highly embarrassing protest from laid-off workers who she also sued (for some reason), and is now a regular lightning rod even in pro-Blue media.

KMT's legislative lists have also been accused of being nepotistic, rewarding local party machines and people who were willing to put up with the change to the Presidential ticket. Lianhe Wanbao (pro-KMT) has called it “the worst legislators-at-large list in history.”

Congrats DPP.

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Now this could be interesting:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/26/taiwan-heavy-metal-star-stands-for-election

Some sort of podemos style movement?

[Simfan34]

Perhaps a more... strenuous intervention by the US on behalf of the KMT is needed?

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poll for the proportional section of the Yuan:

DPP 27%
KMT 23%
New Power 6% (the new leftish party which is strongly calling for democratic reform, like eliminating two of the five (!!!) branches of government and MMP. Its leader is the Amnesty Chairman/metal singer Huang Kuo-chang, who is associated strongly with the student-led Sunflower movement of 2014.

People First 5% (James Soong's outfit, and KMT ally. Soong is a fairly savvy politician being one of the first pan-Bluers to make outreach into Taiwanese speaking voters. His party itself (essentially written off a few years ago) is jumping ship, eschewing the KMT's domestic agenda (one of its candidates in Taipei has actually won the DPP's backing.)

Green - SDP 3% (Green party founded in the 90's in alliance with new lefty party)

Taiwan Solidarity Union 2% (as Hash said "DPP on steroids")

Other parties running include Tree Party, an anti-sprawl splinter of the Green Party; MCFAP (pan Blue, aimed at "soldiers’, civil servants’, and teachers’ dignity" ; the Unionist Party, a unification party led by the gangster Chang An-le ("White Wolf"); Taiwan Independence Party (DPP on even more steroids); New Party, a pan-Blue  old anti-Lee splinter that is now a misnomer and Minkuotang, a conservative pan-Blue party providing Soong's VP, has been accused of being a machine for the Chan Buddhist hierarchy at best, and being a creepy cult that preys upon college kids at worst.

Here's a predictions that seems credible (keep in mind I speak neither Taiwanese nor Mandarin, so I go via Google Translate or Anglophone Taiwanese journalists/bloggers):

http://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/forecasting-the-2016-taiwan-legislative-elections

essentially, the DPP have managed to ally well with minor parties, like the SDP and New Power, while the KMT have been shambolic. For a hyper-rich party of power, this is a really appalling campaign no matter what Obama does to save the status quo. I'm kind of surprised that the media aren't covering this election more tbh.

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https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2015/12/29/whats-your-lucky-number/

Fun blogpost for lovers of psephological data. (so, err, all Atlas users)

[Asian Nazi]

https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2015/12/29/whats-your-lucky-number/

Fun blogpost for lovers of psephological data. (so, err, all Atlas users)

Nice find, Mr. Crabs.

As for the actual election, I find myself rooting for the KMT out of principle (oh the irony).  Sad to see them getting shellacked so hard for things that are largely out of their control.  Hope cross-strait relations don't get derailed as hard as I fear they will with the DPP in power.

[jaichind]

I guess I do have to write something about this as depressing as it is.  At this stage DPP will sweep the victory with ease with the pan-Blue vote split and a swing toward the pan-Green camp.  What did the KMT in are

a) The obvious anti-incumbency that sinks in after 8 years in power
b) While the Ma regime has been more corruption free than the previous DPP Chen regime his government had its share of scandals which is at odds with the ultra clean image Ma had coming into power
c) While the strategy of economic integration with the Mainland did bring success in headline economic numbers the benefits has been skewed toward the top of the income scale.  What was the killer for the KMT is that coastal Mainland China has moved upstream in the economic chain much faster than expected and has eaten into the economic base of the Taiwan Province middle class in Northern Taiwan Province which is the base of the KMT voting bloc.  This fact is the basis of the 2014 Sunflower movement.
d) The worst of all is the endless KMT civil war between President Ma and KMT speaker of the House Wang.  Now both will go down together.

Chu running instead Hung is more about saving KMT seats in the congressional campaign than winning.  Sung running at a certain level helps the KMT in the sense it could draw away Pan-Blue anti-KMT votes that would have gone to Tsai in a straight KMT-DPP race.  

Tsai is running a middle-of-the-road campaign on the unification-independence issue to avoid being beating down just like in 2012 when Ma turned the election into a Blue-Green unification-independence showdown.  Tsai is running on "status-quo" on the Mainland China issue leaving it to voters imagination what status quo means.  

As a radical unificationist I am a lot more calm about DPP coming into power in 2016 than in 2000.  At this stage the PRC military lead over the ROC as well as the huge economic integration between Mainland China and Taiwan is such so that there is no way any DPP regime would risk anything even close to declaring Independence.  The main difference a DPP regime would make would be the nature and pace of further economic integration with the Mainland.

I think at this stage the election results would be something like

Tsai     51
Chu     34
Song   15

In Legislature it would be something like

Cities directly under Central Government
 Taipei City                  KMT 6 PFP 1 DPP 1
 New Taipei City          KMT 5 DPP 7
 Taoyuan City             KMT 5 DPP 1
 TaiChung City            KMT 3 DPP 5
 Tainan City                DPP 5
 Kaoshiung  City          DPP 9

Taiwan Province
 Keelong City              KMT 1
 Yilan County              DPP 1
 Hsinchu City              KMT 1
 Hsinchu County         KMT 1
 Maioli County             KMT 2
 Changhwa County     KMT 2 DPP 2
 Naotou County          KMT 2
 Yunling County          DPP 2
 Jaiyi City                    DPP 1
 Jaiyi County               DPP 2
 Pingdong County        DPP 3
 Hualiang County        KMT 1
 Taidong County         KMT 1
 Penghu County         DPP 1

Fuijan Province
 JinMen County          NP 1
 Lianjiang County       KMT 1
 
Aborigine seats           KMT 4 DPP 1 NPB 1

Party list                    KMT 11 DPP 14 PFP 3 NPP 4 NP 2

Which gives us

Pan-Blue     54
 KMT  46
 PFP    4
 NP      3
 NPB    1

Pan-Green  59
 DPP   55
 NPP     4

Which gives the Pan-Greens a narrow majority.

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Isn't it fun that Taiwanese politics can bring hardcore communists and libertarian poll tax supporters under the same umbrella?

I really find Soong's choice of running mate peculiar. I mean better than Chu's choice lol, but still/

[SATW]

I don't know anything about Taiwan politics, so excuse my ignorance....

...so the gist of this is KMT is pro-unification and DPP is anti-unification and pro-independence, but it's not completely about this issue? DPP is trying to be more nuanced and vague without changing positions?

[jaichind]

poll for the proportional section of the Yuan:

DPP 27%
KMT 23%
New Power 6% (the new leftish party which is strongly calling for democratic reform, like eliminating two of the five (!!!) branches of government and MMP. Its leader is the Amnesty Chairman/metal singer Huang Kuo-chang, who is associated strongly with the student-led Sunflower movement of 2014.

People First 5% (James Soong's outfit, and KMT ally. Soong is a fairly savvy politician being one of the first pan-Bluers to make outreach into Taiwanese speaking voters. His party itself (essentially written off a few years ago) is jumping ship, eschewing the KMT's domestic agenda (one of its candidates in Taipei has actually won the DPP's backing.)

Green - SDP 3% (Green party founded in the 90's in alliance with new lefty party)

Taiwan Solidarity Union 2% (as Hash said "DPP on steroids")

Other parties running include Tree Party, an anti-sprawl splinter of the Green Party; MCFAP (pan Blue, aimed at "soldiers’, civil servants’, and teachers’ dignity" ; the Unionist Party, a unification party led by the gangster Chang An-le ("White Wolf"); Taiwan Independence Party (DPP on even more steroids); New Party, a pan-Blue  old anti-Lee splinter that is now a misnomer and Minkuotang, a conservative pan-Blue party providing Soong's VP, has been accused of being a machine for the Chan Buddhist hierarchy at best, and being a creepy cult that preys upon college kids at worst.

Here's a predictions that seems credible (keep in mind I speak neither Taiwanese nor Mandarin, so I go via Google Translate or Anglophone Taiwanese journalists/bloggers):

http://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/forecasting-the-2016-taiwan-legislative-elections

essentially, the DPP have managed to ally well with minor parties, like the SDP and New Power, while the KMT have been shambolic. For a hyper-rich party of power, this is a really appalling campaign no matter what Obama does to save the status quo. I'm kind of surprised that the media aren't covering this election more tbh.

Some interesting facts, some personal.

1) NPP leader 黃國昌 (Huang Kuo-chang) who is running on the anti-Mainland China line to capture the radical independence vote and squeezing out pro-independence TSU in the meantime was recently exposed to have
  a) A father-in-law that has a very large Mainland China investment operation which does not jive with Huang's attacks on "traitors" that invests on the Mainland
  b) Published a book back in 2008 with the help of Beijing University where Taiwan was referred to as a "region" which is fine by me but is an anathema to independence activists
Overall Huang is serving is role to help Tsai.  Tsai needs to move the the middle as there is no pro-Independence majority so Huang moves in to pick up the slack at the congressional level and back Tsai in the election  

2) Green Party-SDP is interesting at a personal level. Both the original founder of the pro-independence Taiwan Green Party 高成炎 (Wang Kao-Yan) (a professor now retired from politics) and as the current leader of SDP 范雲 (Fang Yun) (who was a student activist back in the late 1980s) are personal friends of the pro-independence branch of my family.  The pro-independence branch of my family is a major financial supporter of both of them and I am sure they are helping out this time as well even as they will vote DPP.  My cousin is actually pretty close to 范雲 and I meet her several times on my various trips to Taiwan Province.  Of course as a radical Chinese nationalist and unification supporter I would not touch these guys politically with a ten foot pole.  At a personal level I found both of them very interesting people and I enjoy their company.

高成炎


范雲

  

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I think the crux of the issue is that the bases of the parties really, really, really want either unification or independence, but for most of the population, it's a lesser concern and neither extreme (i.e. being subsumed under Beijing's wing/starting WW3) really is that appetising for your average Taiwan resident.  So a DPP government will throw a bit of red meat to their base (via symbolic name changes etc.) but don't want to alienate the majority of the population by sincerely carrying through their desire (unless they become radicalised by Beijing doing something especially dumb).

jaichind, who would you vote for? Soong? MKT? New Party? KMT?

[jaichind]

Isn't it fun that Taiwanese politics can bring hardcore communists and libertarian poll tax supporters under the same umbrella?

I really find Soong's choice of running mate peculiar. I mean better than Chu's choice lol, but still/

Why is that surprising?  Over the 1990s the extreme Chinese nationalist right on Taiwan Province and HK has mostly become pro-CCP even as they are still very negative on the CCP program.  The proto-NP on Taiwan Province was the first to start this process in 1992.  I came out of the closet in 1993 when I went to college and became openly pro-CCP even though I started to have pro-CCP thoughts as early as 1989.  I shocked my relatives when I came out with my position.  They said "I thought you hated the CCP."  I said in many ways I am still very negative toward the CCP but I objection to Taiwan Independence on Taiwan Province and the social democratic opposition on Mainland China are even greater.  It is not just Taiwan Independence which I cannot stand (even as I was for Taiwan Independence in the 1980s) I cannot risk the result of the overthrow of the hated CCP on Mainland China just to be replace by a welfare state.  It has to be cutthroat capitalism all the way and if that means having the CCP in charge to get it so be it.

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Oh not surprising, just amusing.

[jaichind]

Speaking of running mates. Tsai's running mate 陳建仁 (Chen Chien-jen) is interesting.  He is a political independent and a well respected academic who got along well with the DPP regime of 2000-2008.  Chen's father 陳新安 (Chen Sing-An) was the founder of the pro-KMT White Faction in Kaoshiung and was a KMT County magistrate of Kaoshiung County in the 1950s.  In the 1950s-1990s period Kaoshiung politics was dominated the pro-KMT White Faction, pro-KMT Red Faction, and anti-KMT Black faction which later became the Kaoshiung branch of DPP.   KMT Speaker of the House Wang and rival to President Ma is also from the Kaoshiung White faction.  Chen Sing-An actually got along well with Black Faction founder 余登發 (Yu Deng-Fa) despite the fact that the Black faction was anti-KMT.  Yu, ironically, was a very strong supporter of Chinese unification despite being anti-KMT and remained so until his death in 1989 even as he joined the DPP.  Yu's children and grandchildren are now big cheese in the Kaoshiung DPP.  For Chen Chien-jen this cross partisan friendship of his father paved the way for him to get along well with the DPP government even as a academic that worked with the government and him being picked as Tsai's running mate.